2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets: Illinois vs. UConn Odds & Player Props

The Final Four gets underway Saturday, April 4, at 6:09 p.m. EST, with the No. 2-seed Connecticut Huskies taking on No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. Fans can find coverage of this 2026 NCAA Tournament matchup on TBS.

Neither team was really in the conversation regarding who would win the national championship this year when the season got underway. UConn was more of a fringe contender at +1400, while Illinois can best be described as a dark horse at +2500. Heading into the first round of the NCAA Tournament, they hadn’t changed much (Illinois +2200; UConn +2000).

(Photo by Porter Binks/Getty Images)

Each is a great team in its own right, but only one can move on to face Michigan or Arizona in the title game. Let’s discuss how to bet on who it might be.

2026 NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bets: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Connecticut Huskies Odds & Preview

• Spread: Illinois -2.5 (+100) | Connecticut +2.5 (-122)
• Moneyline: Illinois -130 | Connecticut +108
• TOTAL: O/U 139.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via FanDuel

20206 NCAA Tournament Profile: Illinois Fighting Illini

Heading into February, Illinois looked like a potential No. 1 seed, with an 18-3 record, had the good times could kept rolling the rest of the regular season. But it went 6-4, losing to two of the three ranked teams it faced, and lost to Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament.

This is not to say it was a bad team by any means. At 24-8, the Illini looked like a good, solid group, and one worthy of the No. 3 seed but maybe not quite ready to dance with the nation’s elite teams. However, with one of the more efficient offenses in the country and a respectable defense, it was definitely not a team to be overlooked.

The Illini proved this by crushing Penn in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament (105-70), beating VCU in the second round (76-55), upsetting Houston in the Sweet 16 (65-55), and beating Iowa in the Elite Eight to earn a date with the Huskies.

Heading into this matchup with UConn, Illinois is ranked No. 4 in the KenPom efficiency rankings (offense — No. 1, defense — No. 20). It has won every NCAA Tournament game by double digits and held three of four opponents to under 60 points. It  is going to try to push the pace against UConn and force the Huskies to play faster than they want, increasing the chances of mistakes as the game turns into a shootout. If the Illini can do just that, they’ll have the advantage over an excellent Connecticut team.

Freshman guard Keaton Wagler is fifth in scoring among the teams left (17.5 points per game) and is coming off his best game with 25 points against Iowa. Junior guard Andrej Stojakovic has averaged 15 points per game, and David Mirkovic 14.8 points per game.

2026 NCAA Tournament Profile: Connecticut Huskies

No one has been ignoring UConn in national championship conversations. But for most of the season, the focus was elsewhere (Arizona, Houston, Michigan, Duke, etc.) while the Huskies toiled on. It was a bit of a surprise to see them get manhandled by St. John’s in the Big East Tournament final. But that just gave many more reasons to doubt UConn’s potential.

Fast forward to the present, and it is a game away from playing for the program’s seventh national championship since 1999.

The Huskies' path to the Final Four wasn't too hard at first.  They were favored by 20.5 points against Furman but won by only 11. Their defense locked down UCLA’s offense in the second round en route to a 73-57 win. But it got a lot tougher in the Sweet 16. UConn opened as an underdog against Michigan State but went on to win by four. Then there was the Duke game in the Elite Eight.

Some will say it got lucky since the Huskies needed a 35-foot jumper from Braylon Mullins to get the win. Those people are selectively overlooking the coaching adjustments head coach Danny Hurley made to help them overcome a 15-point halftime deficit. That and Silas Demary Jr.'s skill, which led to the steal with six seconds left and Mullins’ buzzer-beater possible.

That’s not luck. It’s excellent coaching from a two-time national champion head coach and talented players making the necessary plays when they mattered most.

Senior Tarris Reed has led the way for the Huskies on the scoreboard with 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game in the tournament, followed by Alex Karraban with 17.8 points per game. Ideally, they’ll want to slow the game down, win the rebound battle (limiting second-chance points), and force Illinois to take shots it doesn't want to take.

My Final Four Pick: Illinois ML at -130

It is worth pointing out that these two teams played early in the regular season. UConn was in complete control at the half, 43-32, and went on to win 74-61. Illinois went 6 for 29 from 3-point range and shot 32% from the court (19 for 60). Both teams have, of course, come a long way since then.

UConn will likely just try to do what worked the first time. But Illinois has shown it can adjust, and I think it’ll be ready for whatever the Huskies throw at it. This time, the game will be closer, harder fought, and may possibly go down to the last possession. Three of UConn’s four NCAA Tournament opponents have shot well from the perimeter against it.

Illinois will make it four and win the game with a late jumper.

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Final Four Player Props: Illinois vs. UConn

• Keaton Wagler, OVER 2.5 Made 3s (+145 via bet365)

Wagler went OVER this mark in two of four NCAA Tournament games and in 12 games during the regular season. He shot 40.7% from 3-point range during the regular season. UConn has a tough perimeter defense, but Wagler has hit 44% of his 3s in the tournament. He’s not about to stop shooting now.

It’s a risky play against the UConn defense, but at +145, it is a solid value play.

• Kylon Boswell, UNDER 8.5 Points (-110 via bet365)

Boswell scored 25 in the loss to UConn earlier in the season, but his role diminished as the year went on. He averaged 12.5 points per game this season and had 13 and 14 in the first two NCAA Tournament games. He took seven total shots in the last two and missed them all. Like in the last two, Illinois will not ask him to shoot much, if at all, in this game.

• Silas Demary Jr., UNDER .5 Made 3s (+155 via bet365)

Demary attempted 14 shots total in three NCAA Tournament games. He went 4 for 9 vs. Duke, including 2 for 5 from 3-point range. During the regular season, he failed to make one in 16 games and averaged 0.9 made per 2.3 attempts a game (40.5%). He was 1 for 1 in the regular season game vs. Illinois.