2026 NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets: Odds & Predictions for BYU vs. Texas, North Carolina vs. VCU

The first day of the NCAA Tournament is like Christmas for college basketball fans. The excitement of March Madness is real because hope is still alive for all 64 teams. Unfortunately, that feeling doesn’t last long for most, thanks to the unpredictability of the tournament. At the same time, that chaos is exactly what makes March Madness so great.

For today, though, it’s all sunshine and rainbows for bracket makers and bettors alike.

(Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)

You can find all odds used in my NCAA Tournament predictions at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Looking for more NCAA basketball and sports betting promotions? We have gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here.

NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets: Texas vs BYU prediction for March 19

While watching the First Four, I told myself that if N.C. State advanced, I’d back another No. 11 seed to pull off an upset. That didn’t happen, as Texas beat the Wolfpack in a close game on Tuesday night.

Texas will struggle to limit BYU’s offense

Give credit to Texas for how it played in that game, making clutch shots and stops down the stretch. I certainly didn’t expect that.

Regardless, I still can’t see this Texas defense (95th nationally, per KenPom) shutting down BYU’s elite offense (10th nationally).

The driver of this elite offense has been star freshman and potential first overall pick AJ Dybantsa. The freshman has created problems for every opponent he’s gone up against this year, averaging 25.3 points per game with 6.7 rebounds per game. Although BYU lost in the third round of the Big 12 tournament to Houston — he’s been hot recently, dropping 40, 27 and 26 in all three games.

BYU follows the trend of 6-seeds with health concerns

A trend among the 6-seeds this year is injuries to star players. Unfortunately, BYU isn’t any different. The Cougars lost senior point guard Richie Saunders (18 PPG, 1.7 SPG) to a season-ending injury in February.

Obviously, it’s a tough spot to lose a senior guard and secondary scoring threat so late in the season. However, it hasn’t been all downhill for BYU. Since his injury, the Cougars have managed a 5-5 record with surprising wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech.

A big reason for that success has been the play of sophomore guard Robert Wright III. He has stepped up in a big way and taken over Saunders' role as a secondary scoring threat, averaging 18.2 points per game with big performances down the stretch.

Texas may have an edge on the glass, but it might not matter if there’s few rebounds to grab because Dybantsa and Wright are knocking down shots.

• My Pick: BYU ML (-135 | DraftKings)

I’m not sure how deep of a March Madness run BYU will go on this year, but trust the Cougars to get the job done in the first round.

NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets: VCU vs North Carolina prediction for March 19

It seems like every March, there’s always a popular 11-seed that’s picked to upset a 6-seed. This year, VCU is that trendy pick and for good reason.

I’ve successfully backed VCU for most of conference play, and I won’t stop now as it has drawn a favorable matchup against North Carolina.

UNC is a different team away from home, without Caleb Wilson

Simply put, North Carolina has struggled without star freshman Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG). Although the Tar Heels have gone 5-4 without their leading scorer, they’ve had some embarrassing losses and took a dip in almost every metric.

The other reason to fade UNC here is its struggles outside of Chapel Hill, with all eight of its losses coming on the road. According to Haslametrics, the Tar Heels rank 364th in its “Away From Home” metric.

On the other side, VCU enters playing its best basketball of the season, winning 16 of its last 17 games.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

FREE $100K Pick’em Entry 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

VCU’s holds size and rebounding advantage

I can see this matchup ending up being a relatively low-scoring game. Because of that, I’m looking at specific advanced stats that I like to check in games that could be rock fights.

VCU holds many of those metrics and then some. Specifically on the offensive glass, the Rams rank in the top-100 teams nationally in offensive rebound percentage at roughly 31.6%, while UNC sits closer at 29.2%, a difference that should give VCU more second-chance opportunities.

Not to mention, those stats are across the entire season, not taking into account that UNC’s rebounding has dropped off significantly without Wilson.

VCU also has the frontcourt size to compete with North Carolina around the rim, and leading scorer Terrence Hill Jr. (14.4 points per game) could create problems against the Tar Heels’ drop coverage on the offensive end.

• My Pick: VCU +3 (-120 | Draftkings)

I recommend taking VCU’s alternate line, buying an extra half point here to reach a key number. As always, don’t be afraid to forget the points completely and take the VCU money line (+130 | Caesars Sportsbook).

NCAA Tournament First Round Best Bets: USF vs Louisville prediction for March 19

I was back and forth on this game since the bracket came out, leaning toward South Florida but not entirely sure. However, Louisville’s recent injury news has changed that narrative.

Louisville star point guard and leading scorer Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) was officially declared out for this game on Wednesday, and that will certainly be a big deal against a USF defense that’s known to play up-tempo and rack up steals.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

March Madness Picks at Thrillzz 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

Momentum matters in March Madness

Outside of the injury news, a major reason I’m looking to back the Bulls is their momentum.

South Florida is going into March Madness coming off a historic run — blowing out Wichita State 70-55 to win the American Conference while keeping alive an 11-game win streak. Notably, the win marked USF’s first conference tournament title in 36 years.

Junior guard Wes Enis (16.8 PPG) and senior forward Izaiyah Nelson (15.7 PPG, 9.6 RPG) led the Bulls in scoring while earning all-tournament honors.

However, a big reason behind USF’s success is their balanced scoring attack and aggressive defense. The Bulls currently have all five of their starters scoring double digits, and it seems like each guy has stepped up in different games over their win streak.

Defensively, the Bulls play a high-risk, high-reward style, averaging 14 takeaways per game (23rd nationally) while also committing 21.3 personal fouls per game (15th nationally).

The question is whether that aggressive approach will work against Louisville. I believe it will. The Cardinals average 11.6 turnovers per game (191st nationally), and those issues could worsen without their starting point guard.

• My Pick: USF +4.5 (-110 | BetMGM)

Expect the Bulls to force turnovers and take away possessions from Louisville while relying on a balanced scoring attack.