2026 NCAA Tournament: Latest Championship Odds Ahead Of Sweet 16

We started the college basketball season with 300+ teams ready to battle it out for the right to be called “national champions.” As the 2026 NCAA Tournament got underway with the First Four, that number had dwindled down to 68, and as we head into the Sweet 16, there are, well, 16 teams still in contention.

So, it seems like a great time to see how the odds may have shifted now that the field has been narrowed down. Let’s take a look at the odds to win the 2025/26 national championship as we head into the Sweet 16.

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NCAA Tournament National Championship Odds: And Then There Were 16…

The following are the odds to win the National Championship listed at BetMGM for the remaining 16 teams:

• Michigan +300
• Arizona +325
• Duke +425
• Houston +700
• Purdue +1200
• Illinois +1400
• Iowa State +1700
• Connecticut +2500
• St. John’s +3000
• Michigan State +3000
• Arkansas +4000
• Nebraska +5000
• Tennessee +6600
• Alabama +10000
• Iowa +10000
• Texas +25000

With Florida getting upset in the Round of 32, room was made for Purdue to slide into the top five on the board. I’m guessing Duke may have slipped because of its underwhelming performance against Sienna in the opening round.

Houston saw the biggest change among the top five teams, moving up to +700. Perhaps after seeing the defense playing so well, confidence is up in the Cougars. While they have a tough matchup in the Sweet 16 vs. Illinois, it can’t hurt to have a hometown advantage.

The most significant risers in the bunch are Purdue, going from +2500 to +1200 since the NCAA Tournament started. St. John’s has jumped up betting boards as well, going from +6600 to +3000.

2026 NCAA Tournament National Championship Odds: Things to Consider When Making Your Pick(s)

What makes the March Madness so much fun to watch is the volatility of it all. One bad game is all it takes for a contender to get upset and knocked out. At the same time, if an underdog (like Texas) gets hot, it can do some damage, and who knows, maybe more. So, when choosing a team to bet on at this stage, there are other things to consider beyond the X’s and O’s.

You have to look outside the stats, records, and rankings and find something else to help guide your decision.

For example, in the last six NCAA Tournaments, the betting favorite heading into the Sweet 16 has won it all just once (2023-24, UConn). As for the other five, you didn’t have to go far to find the odds of the team that won four of them. Those teams had the second-shortest odds heading into the Sweet 16.

Go back a little deeper, and you can see that five of the last 15 eventual champions were favored to win prior to the Sweet 16. Of the 15 winners, 14 of them were among the top five on betting boards at that stage. The team with the longest odds to go on to win was UConn in the 2013-14 Tournament (+2800).

Who Has The Toughest Road to the Final Four?

Figuring out which teams have the toughest road to the Final Four can help you narrow the field down. No matter the seed, the more roadblocks a team faces, the greater the chances it has of losing. On the flip side, someone with a relatively easy route and longer odds could be a solid value play.

Here are the teams with the toughest NCAA Tournament road ahead:

• Houston: The Cougars will benefit from playing in Houston, but Illinois is going to put the Cougars’ celebrated defense to the test with its elite offense. Then they’ll face either Iowa (which took down a No. 1 seed) or Nebraska. Neither game will be a walk in the park.
• Purdue: The Boilermakers get to deal with a red-hot Texas team that has already recorded two March Madness upsets. If they make it past the Longhorns, they’ll probably face Arizona, a team that held the No. 1 spot in the country for nine weeks.
• Alabama: The Crimson Tide offense can hang with Michigan and probably with Iowa State (or Tennessee) as well. But they can’t hide that awful defense anymore.
• Duke: St. John’s is not going to be an easy out, and if the Blue Devils slack off at all in this game, Rick Pitino will make them pay. If they make it past the Red Storm, they’ll have another tough one against either UConn or Michigan State.

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My 2026 NCAA Tournament Pick(s): National Championship Prediction

I don’t think Purdue, Alabama, or Texas have a shot. Arizona will win the West, and Michigan or Iowa State will win the Midwest. If they can get past St. John’s, the Blue Devils will take the East. But the South is more of a question mark. It will be either Illinois or Houston, but it is hard to say which.

So, if I’m putting money down on a national championship winner at this stage, I’m going with Houston. I wish the Cougars offense was a bit more explosive, and Thursday’s game against Illinois is a concern. But of the teams left, it is the best value play.

Michigan, Arizona, and Duke are all great bets, too. But Houston was in the big game last season and nearly won, so we know it has what it takes to get there and finish the job.