2026 NCAA Tournament Men’s Dark Horse Odds & Picks

March Madness is the one time of year when we are encouraged to, well, go a little crazy with our picks. Why? Because history tells us to do so. Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 (now 68) teams in 1985, a No. 1 seed usually wins it all, but not always.

No. 1 seeds have won the championship in 26 of 39 NCAA Tournaments. Sometimes these teams were considered contenders from the outset, and it was no surprise. Other times, winners have surprised us by emerging during the tournament and going on to win it all. We call these teams dark horses. I’m talking about Villanova in 1985 (8-seed), Kansas in 1988 (6-seed), and UConn in 2014 (7-seed).

(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

Who are this season’s dark horse candidates? I’ve got a few ideas on that subject.

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2026 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Pick: St. John’s Red Storm

• Odds to win National Championship: +6000
• To Make Title Game: +2200
• To Make Final Four: +1000

Odds via FanDuel

Why St. John's can win the national championship

There are certain elements you are going to want to look for when picking out potential dark horse teams. For one, how good is their defense? That old saying about offense winning games and defense winning championships — well, it’s true.

At 70 points per game allowed, the St. John's defense is ranked No. 70 in the country, but a better overall measure is a team’s KenPom defensive efficiency rating, and the Red Storm is ranked No. 12 (94.2). It is not necessarily great at any one specific statistical category, but it is good at many.

Teams need to be able to win games when the shots don’t fall. St. John’s won 11 games this season when it scored under its season average (81.6 points per game). It likes to guard the ball hard, put pressure on the offense, and create turnovers, but it uses a good mix of full-court and half-court pressure. St. John’s will get teams out of rhythm and cause a little chaos.

The Red Storm also has experience and momentum going for it. It has gone 19-1 in its last 20 games and has won six in a row since losing to UConn on Feb. 25. A trio of seniors lead the team, forwards Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 points per game) and Bryce Hopkins (13.5 points per game), and guard Oziyah Seller (10.7 points per game).

Then there is head coach Rick Pitino, the only coach to take three different schools to the Final Four. If there is anyone who can figure out how to win a game in NCAA Tournament play, it is him.

2026 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Pick: Louisville Cardinals

• Odds to win National Championship: +15000
• To Make Title Game: +5500
• To Make Final Four: +2200

Odds via FanDuel

Why Louisville can win the national championship

At 23-10 and 11-7 in the ACC, the Cardinals’ season didn’t go as planned for a preseason top-15 team. But there is still reason to believe that Pat Kelsey’s team could live up to its potential.  Why is that? Because 22 of the last 23 champions ranked inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Of the tournament field, eight teams meet that standard.

Yes, Louisville is one of them (No. 19 offense—124.1 and No. 25 defense—98.6).

The Cardinals averaged 84.7 points per game this season, led by senior guard Ryan Conwell (18.7 points per game). But they are expected to get an even more impactful player back in the lineup in freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 points per game in 21 games played), who has missed the last three weeks with a back injury.

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They have the athleticism to push the tempo, can maintain a fast pace, and attack in transition. The Cards are also deadly from 3-point range. They rank No. 8 in the country in attempts per game (32.3) and No. 6 in made 3s per game (11.5).

As important as having a veteran coach can be, Kelsey has taken a team that was one of the worst in the ACC and taken it to the tournament in each of his first two seasons. This is a team that is still learning and adjusting to its coach — and may not have peaked yet.

But if they can during the NCAA Tournament…

2026 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini

• Odds to win National Championship: +2200
• To Make Title Game: +950
• To Make Final Four: +380

Odds via FanDuel

Why Illinois can win the national championship

It might be kind of pushing it to call Illinois a dark horse. This is the sixth consecutive season Brad Underwood has gotten the Fighting Illini into the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago, they made it to the Elite Eight, but last year bowed out in the second round. They went 24-7 and 15-5 in the Big Ten during the regular season and are ranked No. 13 in the AP Poll.

Yeah, this is a good team. So, how can I get away with calling them a dark horse? Well, because their odds give them less than a 5% chance of winning the national championship.

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Illinois averages 84.4 points per game, good enough to rank No. 21 in the country, and it has a solid defense to go with it (69.8 points allowed per game, No. 66 in the country). The Illini have one of the most efficient offenses (No. 2 in KenPom— 131.2 and a pretty efficient defense to go with it (No. 28 in KenPom rankings—99.1).

They do not have as many veteran players as St. John’s and Louisville, but they do have some emerging talents, like freshman guard Keaton Wagler (17.9 points per game) and freshman forward David Mirkovic (13.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game). But while they may not have veteran leadership on the court, the Illini have that in Underwood. This is his eighth season at Illinois and sixth in the NCAA Tournament. It is his 12th as an NCAA head coach and 10th time taking a team to the tournament.