2026 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: First Round Upsets

A March Madness tournament without any first-round upsets would be, well — maddening. Upsets are what bring the madness to the NCAA Tournament. Without them, it would be just a whole bunch of games played in March with a few in April (and we can’t have that). There have been at least five upsets every year since the 2004 NCAA Tournament (3).

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

On seven occasions since then, there were double-digit upsets. The last five have seen an average of 7.4 first-round upsets. That gives us a roughly 23% chance of picking the right ones. Here are my top choices for first-round upsets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament (Odds via DraftKings).

2026 NCAA Tournament First-Round Upset Pick: No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s

• Spread: Texas A&M +3.5 (-115) | Saint Mary’s -3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Texas A&M +136 | Saint Mary’s Gaels -162
• TOTAL: O/U 147.5 (-105/-115)

Saint Mary’s likes to slow down the pace, keeping athletic teams from developing a rhythm, limiting possessions, and shortening games. But the Aggies will not let it. Texas A&M is going to force the Gaels to play faster than they want, and will look to spread the floor and attack in transition.

The Aggies' defense is suspect on its best days, which is why Texas A&M will play as fast as it can to create more scoring opportunities. Saint Mary’s guards are at their best in a slow, controlled environment where their efficiency can thrive. Texas A&M will apply pressure and force them to make decisions before they're ready.

The Gaels have a solid frontcourt, but the Aggies have the size and depth to wear them down.

• My March Madness Pick: Texas A&M ML

As long as the Aggies do not play the Gaels' half-court, slow, methodical game, they’ll be in the driver’s seat for Thursday's game. If they don’t settle for too many quick 3-point shots, but take the time to create open shots (A&M ranks No. 15 in the country with 10.8 made 3s per game), they’ll win.

2026 NCAA Tournament First-Round Upset Pick: No. 13 Hofstra vs. No. 4 Alabama

• Spread: Hofstra +11.5 (-110) | Alabama -11.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Hofstra +550 | Alabama -800
• TOTAL: O/U 159.5 (-105/-115)

Alabama was a team with upset potential simply because of its style of play. The Crimson Tide like to play fast and loose, while taking a ton of shots (especially 3-pointers) and scoring points (No. 1 in the nation, 91.7 points per game). But they don’t play defense (No. 352 in the nation, allowing 83.5 points per game).

Losing star guard Aden Holloway to a felony drug arrest increases the possibility of an upset.

For Hofstra to pull off an upset, the Pride, who play at one of the slowest rates in the country, will have to control the tempo. If they allow Alabama to speed things up, they're done. But if they can slow things down, Alabama will lose something critical to its game plan — shot volume.

The Tide take over half of their shots from 3-point range, averages 35 attempts a game, and just under 13 made. If Hofstra can hold them to 23-27 attempts with 8-10 made and shoot well from the arc itself (average 9.5 per game), it’ll keep this one close and maybe even win outright.

• My March Madness Pick: Hofstra +11.5

I think an outright upset is certainly possible, but it may be more likely that Hofstra will keep this one closer than expected.

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2026 NCAA Tournament First-Round Upset Pick: No. 11 Miami (OH) vs. No. 6 Tennessee

• Spread: Miami (OH) +11.5 (-110) | Tennessee -11.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Miami (OH) +440 | Tennessee -600
• TOTAL: O/U 148.5 (-110/-110)

The RedHawks will have two things working for them in Friday's game: First Four momentum and a chip on their shoulder. All of last season’s First Four teams lost in the Round of 64, but in 12 of the 13 seasons prior to that, at least one made it to the second round.

Miami (OH) may be the most disrespected team in the NCAA Tournament. Rather than celebrate its undefeated regular season, the pundits looked to discredit its accomplishment because of its schedule. When the RedHawks lost in the MAC Tournament, the haters piled on, calling them unworthy. They responded with an 89-79 win over SMU in the First Four Tuesday night.

Statistically speaking, they have the No. 2 offense in the country (90.7 points per game), No. 1 field goal percentage (52.4%), No. 8 3-point percentage (39.2%), and the No. 1 effective field goal percentage (61.2%).

The Vols will not be pushovers, of course. They have a respectable offense, a solid defense, and are among the best rebounding teams in the country. But if Miami (OH) can control the pace and take an early lead, Tennessee's offense does not have a good track record of coming from behind.

• My March Madness Pick: Miami (OH) ML

Tennessee is a good team, but Miami (OH) is too. Yes, its schedule was easy, which makes its stats somewhat padded, but it still takes excellence to play as consistently well as it did for most of the season.

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March Madness Honorable Mention Upset Picks

• No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 North Carolina

North Carolina has been too inconsistent for my taste, winning some good ones (i.e., Duke) but losing others it shouldn’t have (Stanford, Cal). VCU, on the other hand, is coming in hot, winners of its last six in a row and 16 of its last 17.

• No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

Both teams have solid offenses, although High Point’s was the No. 3 scoring unit in the country this season (90 points per game). It’ll try to pick up the pace, keeping Wisconsin from playing it’s usual efficient, tempo-controlled, half-court style.

If High Point can control the pace and tempo more than the Badgers, it can win this game.

• No. 11 Texas vs. No. 6 BYU

Texas will benefit from First Four momentum like Miami (OH). The late-season injuries are going to catch up with the Cougars in this game. Fans can expect Texas to use its size and physical style of play to control the paint and keep BYU from taking clean shots at the basket.