2026 NCAA Tournament Odds, Player Props, & Predictions: Houston Cougars vs. Idaho Vandals

Day 1 of the Round of 64 is finally here for the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Fans will have 16 games to enjoy Thursday, starting with No. 9 TCU taking on No. 8 Ohio State at 12:15 p.m. EST. But the game I want to focus on here is the last one of the day, the 2-seed vs. 15-seed matchup, Houston vs. Idaho.

(Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)

Houston is a national championship contender and a heavy favorite to win tonight's game. Idaho is making its third appearance in the NCAA Tournament since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and its first since 1990. It has not made it past the first round during the modern era of the tournament.

But upsets happen every year. They put the “Madness” into “March Madness.” Let’s take a look at the odds and the game.

2026 NCAA Tournament Odds, First Round: Idaho vs. Houston Preview and Prediction

• Spread: Idaho +23.5 (-110) | Houston -23.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Idaho +1600 | Houston -10000
• TOTAL: O/U 138 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

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March Madness Profile: Houston Cougars

Houston enters the NCAA Tournament ranked No. 5 in the last AP Poll. It hit a rough patch towards the end of the regular season when it faced three ranked opponents in a week, and lost all three. But the Cougars regained their confidence by the end of the regular season and fell short in their bid to win the Big 12 title, losing to Arizona in the final, 79-74.

The Cougars have let their defense lead the way this season, allowing an average of 62.9 points per game. They are dominant with half-court pressure and physical nature, making it hard for opposing teams to find open looks or clean passing lanes.

They play at a slow tempo, maximizing their shot opportunities while limiting their opponents' possessions. Houston rarely turns the ball over (No. 1 in the country, 8.5 per game). However, with a focus on taking good shots in order to maximize efficiency, its offense lacks an explosive element.

Kingston Flemings has led the way for Houston on the scoreboard this season with 16.4 points per game, and has been efficient from 3-point range, hitting 40 of 102 attempts. Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan do most of the work from 3-point range, with Sharp hitting 37.1% of his 240 attempts (89 made) and Uzan hitting 34.6% of his (130 for 240).

March Madness Profile: Idaho Vandals

Idaho is going to want to do exactly what Houston works to avoid. It is going to want to pick up the pace while leaning on its guards and perimeter game. The last thing it will want to do is grind it out in a half-court game. The Vandals are going to want to keep the ball moving with the hopes of creating a few open catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Idaho is ranked No. 35 in 3-point attempts (28) and made shots (10) while shooting 35.6% from 3-point range. Houston has held teams to 31.2% (No. 80 in the country). On the defensive end, Idaho tends to play a conventional half-court game. It does not get aggressive or force many turnovers (No. 263 in the country, 10.83 per game).

The Vandals do not have a primary scoring threat but have four players averaging from 12.1 to 13.9 points per game. Kolton Mitchell has been their most productive shooter, hitting 70 of 195 3-point attempts this season (35.9%).

My NCAA Tournament Pick: Houston -23.5

Large spreads like this typically make me nervous, but if there is ever a time when it is often okay to roll with a team covering one this large, it’s the first round of the NCAA Tournament. When it comes to these two teams, the talent gap between Houston and Idaho is immense.

Not that the Vandals are without talented players, but they are nowhere near the level of Houston. The Cougars' defense is going to absolutely control the game. Idaho is not built to withstand the physical punishment Houston will dish out. Idaho may make it interesting and be within 10 at the end of the half, but it’ll tire out quickly in the second as Houston pulls away and covers.

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2026 NCAA Tournament Picks: Houston vs. Idaho Player Props

• Kingston Flemings, OVER 22.5 Pts + Ast (+100 | bet365)

Flemings averages 16.4 points per game and 5.3 assists per game, putting him UNDER this mark. However, he went OVER in eight of Houston’s 13 nonconference games (a better comparison to Idaho's competitive level). He is the primary ball handler for the Cougars and will be in a position to rack up points and assists against an Idaho defense that struggles against athletic guards.

• Emmanuel Sharp, OVER 2.5 Made 3s (+102 | bet365)

He went OVER this number just once in the Big 12 Tournament, six times in conference play (18 games), and seven times in nonconference games (13 games). Idaho often allowed 7-8 3-pointers per game and ranked No. 234 in the nation defending against 3-pointers, allowing teams to hit 34.3% of their attempts.

Sharp was at his best from 3-point range against the lesser competition Houston faced. Idaho certainly qualifies as such.