2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets: Duke, UConn, Michigan Odds & Picks (March 27)

Thursday night’s Sweet 16 games saw the betting favorites go 2-2 straight up and against the spread, with the OVER going 3-1. After seeing two NCAA Tournament dogs win last night, it is fair to wonder if we’ll see something similar tonight. Houston's matchup with Illinois was low scoring as expected, but could we see another Arizona-Arkansas (197 total points) tonight?

(Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

We’ve got some great matchups on deck, that much is certain. Let’s discuss how to bet on them, starting with St. John’s and Duke.

NCAA Tournament Odds and Preview: St. John’s Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction

• Spread: St. John’s +6.5 (-105) | Duke -6.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: St. John’s +240 | Duke -300
• TOTAL: O/U 140.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

Duke has been sloppy. It was outplayed by the No. 16 seed Sienna Saints in the first half in the Round of 64, hence the record-setting halftime deficit (11 points) for a No. 1 seed in the first round. The Blue Devils got it together well enough in the second half to win, 71-65, a game in which they were favored by 28.5 points.

All seems well after an 81-58 win against TCU in the second round, right? Well … many aspects of their game looked better, but there is one thing that is concerning: they struggled to protect the ball (17 turnovers, and TCU had 12 steals).

Under Rick Pitino, St. John’s runs an aggressive, full-court pressure style of defense that thrives on disruption and chaos. After seeing how successful TCU was in causing chaos, Pitino will have the Red Storm ready to ratchet up the pressure tonight.

However, St. John’s has a glaring issue of its own that Duke will be looking to exploit: the Red Storm are not good at shooting 3-pointers. St. John’s has shot 33.2% from behind the arc this season. If the Red Storm falls behind, they’ll have a hard time coming back against a Duke defense that holds opponents to 30.5% from 3-point range.

Duke has been led on the scoreboard by freshman Cameron Boozer, who has averaged 22.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game this season. Zuby Ejiofor leads the way for St. John’s with 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game.

My Sweet 16 Pick: UNDER 140.5 (-110)

• We have two of the most efficient defenses in the country facing off in this game: Duke is No. 1 in efficiency according to KenPom, and St. John’s is No. 8. The Red Storm’s perimeter shooting struggles are a concern, but so is Duke’s recent sloppiness. TCU couldn’t take advantage of it, but St. John’s will. These teams are too talented and well-matched for either to win by more than 6.5 points. But if Caleb Foster returns, he could be the steady force the Duke offense needs to clean up its act. Whether he does or doesn’t, defense will win the day in this game and keep the final low.

As the men's and women's NCAA Tournaments continue to roll on, you can find our list of the best sports betting offers here.

NCAA Tournament Odds and Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction

• Spread: Alabama +9.5 (-118) | Michigan -9.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Alabama +375 | Michigan -500
• TOTAL: O/U 172.5 (-115/-105)

Odds via BetMGM

You would think the team with the No.1 scoring offense in the country would have a better record than 25-9. Alabama probably would have a better record if it weren’t for one major flaw in the Tide’s style: they don’t play defense.

On offense, they average 91+ points per game and rank No. 3 in efficiency (KenPom), but they allow 82.5 points per game (No. 347) and rank No. 59 in defensive efficiency. During the regular season, against a soft nonconference schedule and in SEC play, they can get away with it. But at this stage of the season?

The offense can win it games, but Alabama is going to find it hard to win a championship without a defense.

Michigan may not be able to match it point-for-point, but the Wolverines have a capable offense (87.4 points per game) and play solid defense (69.6 points allowed per game). They do each one efficiently, ranking in the top 10 in both.

Labaron Philon Jr. leads the way for Alabama on the scoreboard with 21.6 points per game. Yaxel Lendeborg leads Michigan with 14.7 points per game this season.

My Sweet 16 Pick: Michigan -8.5 (-115)

• Michigan will not let Alabama hit 19 3-pointers as the Tide did against Texas Tech. If the Wolverines do let them hit a high number, they’ll do better than the Red Raiders who went 4 for 25 from 3-point range. Alabama’s offense can keep it in and/or competitive in just about any game. But when it meets a well-rounded team like Michigan, it doesn't stand a chance.

NCAA Tournament Odds & Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Prediction

• Spread: MSU +2 (-110) | UConn -2 (-110)
• Moneyline: MSU +110 | UConn -130
• TOTAL: O/U 136.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

Both teams like to control the tempo, so don’t expect a high-possession game; this will likely turn into a physical, half-court battle.

Tom Izzo will try to have his team grind it out, take smart shots, and win the rebound battle for easy second-chance points. Jaxon Kohler has done a solid job down low for the Spartans, averaging 8.9 rebounds and 12.6 points per game.

Michigan State shot 42% from 3-point range (11-26) against Louisville and will probably need to have a similar night against UConn’s tough defense (No. 11 in efficiency via KenPom). The Spartans shot around 36% from the perimeter, and it will not be easy to do so against a Connecticut defense allowing teams to hit 30.5% of 3-point attempts.

But they are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, which will give it a good chance to turn any misses into second-chance points.

Connecticut has not been tested in NCAA Tournament play yet, having an easy time against Furman and UCLA. If the Huskies come out flat against the Spartans, thinking it's another easy matchup, they’ll find themselves in a hole rather quickly.

But UConn has been playing too well all season to fall into that trap. MSU will probably focus on Tarris Reed, which just means the Huskies will lean on Alex Karaban more in this game. The senior forward averaged 13.3 points per game during the season but has gone for 22 and 27 in NCAA Tournament play while shooting 4 for 8 and 4 for 9 from 3-point range.

My Sweet 16 Pick: UConn ML (-130)

• This may be the most evenly matched game of the Sweet 16 bunch tonight. Defensively, they are pretty similar, but I’d give the Huskies an edge on offense because of how well Karaban has been playing. Michigan State’s defense is perfect for kick-out 3s, a specialty of Karaban’s. It will be a tight game with whoever makes the clutch play down the stretch winning. Since it could go either way, I’m going with the value play and taking UConn.

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NCAA Tournament Odds & Preview: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Prediction

• Spread: Tennessee +3.5 (-105) | Iowa State -3.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Tennessee +154 | Iowa State -190
• TOTAL: O/U 139.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via BetMGM

The best bet may be a painfully obvious one for this game. Why? Because we have two teams in this game that are all about playing tough, physical defense and slowing the game down.

Tennessee is one of the best in the country at playing half-court defense and applying pressure on the ball. The Vols have been good at forcing teams to settle for less-than-ideal shots late in the shot clock and then pulling down defensive boards and denying second-chance points. However, they can be streaky on offense, which could be a fatal flaw against a defense like Iowa State’s.

While Tennessee has a solid defense, Iowa State’s may be even better (No. 5 in efficiency via KenPom). The Cyclones are one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers (15.42 per game; No. 6 in the nation) and do a good job of turning opposing offenses' mistakes into transition points.

But, like Tennessee, the Iowa State offense is prone to stalling out at times. If it does so against the Vols, that could be the break Tennessee needs to steal a win.

My Sweet 16 Pick: Iowa State -3.5 (-115)

• If Iowa State were getting Joshua Jefferson back, I might say it would be an easy decision — take Iowa State and lay the points. But as is, I think the teams are fairly even on the offensive end. So it will come down to who executes their defense better. Will it be Tennessee with its suffocating approach or Iowa State’s chaos-inducing, turnover-heavy style? I’m going with the more efficient defense of the two, Iowa State (No. 5 according to KenPom compared to No. 14 for Tennessee).