2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds, Picks & Player Props: Texas vs. Purdue, Iowa vs. Nebraska

The Sweet 16 of the 2026 NCAA Tournament gets underway tonight with four exciting games, starting with the Texas Longhorns taking on the Purdue Boilermakers and a Big Ten battle featuring the Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers.

(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

If you're looking for more NCAA Tournament and sports betting promotions? We have compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here.

Let’s go over the odds for Texas-Purdue and Iowa-Nebraska, along with my best bets and player prop recommendations for both Sweet 16 matchups.

2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds & Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction

• Spread: Texas +7.5 (-110)| Purdue -7.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Texas +280| Purdue -360
• TOTAL: O/U 147.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

NCAA Tournament Profile: Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue has the most efficient offense in the nation according to KenPom, averaging 82.2 points per game. The Boilermakers are one of the better shooting teams, hitting 50.3% of their shots (No. 9 in the country) and 38.8% from 3-point range (No. 10).

On the defensive end, they’ve held opponents to 70 points per game, but they aren’t very disruptive. Purdue doesn’t force many turnovers (10.22 per game, No 296 in the country), averages just 5.6 steals per game (No. 296), and has been unimpressive on the defensive glass (24.11 per game; No. 205).

Braden Smith leads the way for the Boilermakers with 14.3 points and 9 assists per game, followed by Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer (both with 14.1 points per game).

NCAA Tournament Profile: Texas Longhorns

If Texas is going to compete (or even win), the Longhorns will need a standout day on the offensive end of the court since they can’t rely on their defense (No. 81 in KenPom defensive efficiency rankings) to contain the most efficient offense in the country.

Their defense has stepped up in NCAA Tournament play, surrendering no more than 71 points in a game and holding Gonzaga’s offense (No. 20 in scoring, 84.3 points per game) to one of its lowest outputs of the season (68 points). Of course, it will be a different matter altogether trying to contain the Purdue offense.

So, they’ll need to step up on the offensive end. Matas Vokietaitis has done so down low for Texas in tournament play, averaging 18+ points and 11 rebounds per game. Dailyn Swain, the Longhorns’ leading scorer during the regular season, however, could do better. He’s averaging 12.7 per game, well below his regular-season average (17.4).

My Sweet 16 Pick: OVER 147.5 (-110)

• I’m leaning towards picking Purdue to win, but I’m not confident the Boilermakers can put the Longhorns away. However, we have two capable, efficient offenses in this game. Texas has been better on defense since the NCAA Tournament got underway, but they have yet to play a team as well as Purdue. Appearances may be deceiving.

  The Longhorns will do enough on the perimeter against Purdue to help send the final score OVER the TOTAL.

Sweet 16 Player Props: Texas vs. Purdue

• Braden Smith, OVER 1.5 Made 3s (-105)

I’m a little concerned that he’s gone OVER this mark just once in his last five games and went 0 for 4 in the last one. But he hit 4 of 6 in the tournament opener and will likely shoot early and often against a Texas defense that is weak on the perimeter.

• Dailyn Swann, OVER 4.5 Assists (+102)

Swann averaged only 3.5 assists per game during the season, but has gone OVER this mark in three of his last five games and had six in each of his last two. Ball movement was crucial in the win over Gonzaga and will be needed if Texas is going to pull off another upset.

2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds and Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Prediction

• Spread: Iowa +1.5 (-110)| Nebraska -1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Iowa +110| Nebraska -130
• TOTAL: O/U 132.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via bet365

Familiarity is not going to be an issue when these two teams take the court. As Big Ten rivals, the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers have already played twice this season. Iowa won the first matchup at home on Feb. 17, 57-52. Nebraska won the second a few weeks later, besting the Hawkeyes 84-75 in OT on March 8.

There is certainly reason to believe this one could turn into a defensive battle with both teams ranked in the top six in defensive efficiency according to KenPom (Iowa No. 5 and Nebraska No. 6). Iowa absolutely controlled the pace in wins over Clemson and Florida.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

March Madness Picks at Thrillzz 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

While Nebraska struggled with it in the first game against Iowa, however, it didn’t seem to have nearly as much trouble in the second. But the key to winning the second game was the free-throw line. Iowa committed 19 fouls to Iowa’s 12; Nebraska went 20 for 27 from the charity stripe while Iowa went 10 for 15.

The Cornhuskers can best combat Iowa slowing the pace down by getting hot from behind the arc. They attempt close to 30 per game (No. 14 in the country), make 10+ (No. 20), and hit 35.5% of their attempts. In the loss to Iowa, they made 5 of 24 (21%).

Bennett Stirtz leads the way for Iowa on the scoreboard with 19.7 points per game this season. He had 25 in Iowa’s win vs. Nebraska and 11 in the loss. He’s averaging 14.5 per game in tournament play. Pryce Sandfort is leading the way for Nebraska with 17.9 points per game. Against Iowa, he had 13 in the loss and 15 in the win.

My Sweet 16 Pick: Iowa ML

• The spread is as short as it is for a reason, because these are two well-matched opponents that should treat fans to an incredible game. Each has beaten the other, so it will become a matter of who can execute in the moment and make a clutch play when it’s needed.

  I’m going with Iowa because it is the more battle-tested of the two in NCAA Tournament play, giving me more reason to think the Hawkeyes will make the big play when it's needed. Plus, they play better, more consistent defense and have a more efficient offense (No. 17 in the KenPom rankings compared to No. 51).

Sweet 16 Player Props: Iowa vs. Nebraska

• Bennett Stirtz, UNDER 8.5 Ast + Reb (-135)

He has gone OVER this mark in one of two tournament games and in two of his last five. He went UNDER it in both regular-season games against the Cornhuskers (4 and 8).

• Pryce Sandfort, OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-140)

Controlling the glass will be crucial for Nebraska in this game. Sandfort averaged 4.9 per game this season and has gone OVER this number in seven of his last eight games. He had zero in the loss to Iowa, but seven in the win.