2026 NCAA Women's Final Four Best Bets: South Carolina vs. UConn, Texas vs. UCLA Odds & Predictions (April 3)

The 2026 Women's Final Four is here, and there are two matchups on the Friday slate. UConn will face South Carolina, and Texas will play UCLA. For the second consecutive year, all four teams will head to the Final Four, this time as No. 1 seeds.

(Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

No. 1 UConn Huskies (38-0) and No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks (35-3) will meet again under the grandest stage. Featuring top head coaches Geno Auriemma and Dawn Staley, this matchup should be one for the books.

This is UConn's 25th Final Four appearance, and South Carolina's eighth. Both teams have been powerhouses over the past decade, controlling the Final Four's destiny in five of the last nine Championships since 2016. Considered one of the most prestigious programs in women's Division I basketball, UConn has 12 national championships. The Gamecocks have won all three of their NCAA national championships in the Staley era, most recently happening in 2017, 2022, and 2024.

UConn Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Both programs have been two of the most consistent in women's basketball, and South Carolina finds itself in the Final Four for the sixth straight season. Most recently, the Huskies bested the Gamecocks 82-59 to win the 2025 NCAA National Championship. Prior to that, Staley and company defeated Paige Bueckers and UConn 64-49 in the 2022 Finals. In total, these teams have been pitted against one another three times in the Final Four. This rivalry continues to headline the women's game.

Heading into tonight's matchup, UConn is a 7.5-point spread favorite, and -340 on the moneyline. The total is set for over/under 135.5 points.

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Texas Longhorns vs. UCLA Bruins

No. 1 Texas Longhorns (35-3) will square off against No. 1 UCLA Bruins (35-1).

Texas is back in the Final Four and is seeking its first title since the 1986 season under Jody Conradt. Now with head coach Vic Schaefer at the helm, the Longhorns head to their fifth Final Four. Under head coach Cori Close, UCLA is headed to its second consecutive Final Four and is seeking its first-ever NCAA championship. Both are fairly new to their new conferences, with Texas in the SEC, and UCLA joining the Big Ten.

There's not a ton of history circulating these squads as Texas and UCLA have only met once. Notably, Texas defeated UCLA 69-48 in December 2018. The good news is that although both were eliminated by UConn and South Carolina in last year's Final Four, either Texas or UCLA will advance to the championship game.

Oddsmakers are predicting a close game, as Texas is a 1.5-point spread favorite and -140 on the moneyline. The total over/under is set at 132.5 points.

2026 NCAA Women's Basketball Championship Winner Odds (FanDuel)

• UConn Huskies: -155
• Texas Longhorns: +410
• UCLA Bruins: +550
• South Carolina Gamecocks: +650

Connecticut is the heavy favorite to win the NCAA championship with -155 odds on FanDuel. Holding a 60.8% chance to win, there's a large odds gap between UConn and the rest. Texas is favored next (+410) with a 19.6% chance to win. Followed is UCLA (+550) with a 15.4% chance, and South Carolina (+650), with a 13.3% chance to win it all.

2026 NCAA Women's Final Four Betting Odds Are Current As Of April 3 at 11 A.M. ET

If you're planning to bet on the women's Final Four, welcome!

The matchup featuring UConn and South Carolina will tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET, and Texas vs. UCLA will begin at 9:30 p.m. ET. Both will take place at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, and will air on ESPN.

Let's take a look at my three best bets for the April 3 Final Four matchups featuring UConn vs. South Carolina and Texas vs. UCLA. First, let's dive into the betting odds.

NCAA Women's Final Four Best Bets: Betting Odds for April 3 (FanDuel)

UConn vs. South Carolina

• Moneyline: UConn: -340 | South Carolina: +265
• Spread: UConn -7.5 (-112) | South Carolina +7.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 135.5 (-106) | Under 135.5 (-114)

Texas vs. UCLA

• Moneyline: Texas: -140 | UCLA: +112
• Spread: Texas -1.5 (-118) | UCLA +1.5 (-104)
• Total: Over 132.5 (-110) | Under 132.5 (-110)

NCAA Women's Final Four Prediction for Friday, April 3: UConn vs. South Carolina

UConn vs. South Carolina Best Bet

• South Carolina +7.5 (-108 FanDuel)

 Why South Carolina Can Cover the Spread

I placed one unit on the South Carolina Gamecocks to cover the 7.5-point spread as underdogs against UConn. I originally saw the line at 6.5, so I knew I had to grab it at 7.5.

There's no question this UConn team is scary. They are undefeated and boast a 50+ game winning streak. Not to mention, they have one of the deepest rosters in the Final Four. Led by National Player of the Year Sarah Strong and flamethrower Azzi Fudd, UConn ranks first in win percentage, opponent points per game (50.1 PPG), margin per game (37.8), field goal percentage (52%), and effective field goal percentage (59%).

To show the team's full dominance, Connecticut leads the nation in NET rating, two-point percentage (59.6%), 3-point percentage (38.7%), and several other statistical categories. This is one of the strongest teams on both sides of the ball, which has one of the strongest starting fives in Fudd, Strong, KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade, and Serah Williams.

• As mentioned in previous articles, the depth is stronger than ever, and several bench players could be starters on other teams, including freshman sensation Blanca Quiñonez.

Yes, I'm aware the Huskies have earned double-digit March Madness victories over UTSA, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Notre Dame. When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, it's all about who's hot at the right time. UConn has been stacking wins, but has struggled in some of them. Whether they are playing their poker cards right or not, some of the games have been lackluster.

UConn Has Shown Vulnerability on Offense

UConn's 90-52 first-round victory over UTSA was expected: The Huskies won by nearly 40 points, but shot 35-71 (49%) from the field, and 7-of-33 (21%) from beyond the arc. The defense was impressive—the team tallied 19 steals and forced 27 turnovers. Their dominance continued, holding Syracuse to 12 first-half points in the 98-45 second-round blowout.

• UConn shot 56% from the field and 50% from three. With the offense and defense firing on all cylinders, the Huskies forced 20 turnovers and tallied 15 steals.

Maybe Auriemma has a point about using new baskets in the NCAA tournament. Although UConn secured the 63-42 Sweet 16 matchup over UNC, it wasn't the Huskies' best outing. What remains constant is the defense: UConn limited North Carolina to 42 points on 28% field goal shooting, and just 4-of-22 (18%) from three. Offensively, this team was a disaster. UConn scored just 28 first-half points, the lowest of any game this season. In addition, the offense was fairly stagnant. This team struggled with shooting efficiency, finishing just 40% from the field and 20% from three. Outrebounded on the glass, they also committed 10 turnovers.

While UConn secured the 70-52 Elite 8 victory over Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame, the shooting woes continued. I guess shooting 6-of-17 from three (35%) isn't terrible, but the Huskies shot just 24-54 (44%) from the field. With Hidalgo at the helm defensively, UConn committed 14 turnovers, and fouls were a problem for Strong and Quiñonez. Speaking of Quiñonez, it's hard to say if this game would have been close without her: she delivered 20 points and eight rebounds in 30 minutes.

This is where I think South Carolina can cover. I do think 7.5 points is a considerable spread for a Final Four matchup. Yes, I know the Gamecocks got steamrolled by UConn in last year's championship. This team lost Chloe Kitts to injury, but I do believe this team is more efficient than last season.

• At the helm is two-way star Joyce Edwards, who's averaging 20.5 points in the NCAA Tournament.

Trust This South Carolina Team is More Efficient Than in Years Past

I don't think this roster is as deep as UConn's—or even as deep as it was in years past—but the addition of Ta'Niya Latson from the transfer portal (Florida State) could mean everything for South Carolina. Averaging 14.4 points in her senior season, Latson is a high-volume shooter who's shown she can score 30+ points at Florida State.

The Gamecocks have some serious talent, especially on defense, with Raven Johnson, who has improved her offensive game. Yes, Tessa Johnson is just a junior, but we all know how she can light it up from beyond the arc. Most importantly, freshman guard Agot Makeer has been the ultimate x-factor.

• Scoring in double figures in every tournament game, her career-high 18 points proved why she's a threat off the bench.

Overall, I can't sleep on the Gamecocks. On paper, this is a vastly different team from last year; Edwards, Latson, Okot, Tessa, and Raven Johnson all average points in double-figures. This team sits third in offensive rating (117.9), and ranks among the top five in win percentage, points per game (87.1 PPG), margin per game (29.6), field goal percentage (50.8%), 3-point percentage (37.7%), and much more. Maybe the 3-point rate isn't as high, but South Carolina has the shooters, versatility, and size to keep up with UConn.

Everyone talks about UConn's defense, but let's give South Carolina its flower. It ranks first in the nation in points per scoring attempt and top-five in several statistical categories. This team is unforgiving, as opponents hold a 37.8% effective field goal percentage against the Gamecocks.

On paper, both teams are elite offensively, and UConn does have the advantage defensively.

• Don't underestimate the Gamecocks–they've earned double-digit victories over Southern, USC, Oklahoma, and defeated TCU 78-52 in the Elite 8.

Final NCAA Women's Final Four Betting Pick & Prediction: South Carolina +7.5 (-108 FanDuel)

South Carolina scored 78 points against an elite TCU defensive squad, shooting 33-of-70 (47%) from the field, and 6-of-9 (67%) from three. Outrebounding the Horned Frogs 52-24, the Gamecocks didn't shoot over 33% from the floor. The lack of 3-point shooting is concerning, even though they earned a 40-point victory over USC with just four 3-pointers. The Trojans shot just 37% from the field, but South Carolina let them take 25 3-pointers. Yeah, that can't happen today.

• I'm taking South Carolina to cover the 7.5-point spread today. Never count out Dawn Staley, and this is a team that put up 90+ points against Oklahoma and USC. While UConn is its hardest test of the tournament, this South Carolina defense has been absolutely smothering. They held Oklahoma to under 40 percent from the field, and if anything, they have the defensive length to disrupt UConn. I don't think they win outright, but this team has enough talent, minus depth, to hang with the Huskies. Azzi Fudd hasn't played her best aside from a 34-point outing against Syracuse. In certain matchups, her ability to cut has been disruptive, and we've seen UConn freeze offensively.

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NCAA Women's Final Four Prediction for Friday, April 3: Texas vs. UCLA

Texas vs. UCLA Best Bet

• Texas -1.5 (-115 DraftKings)

Why Texas Can Cover the Spread

Today, I'm taking the Texas Longhorns to cover the 1.5-point spread against UCLA. Texas is arguably the best team in the nation right now, and I simply can't fade them. The books are expecting a close matchup, and I'm with them on that.

I personally found more value in betting on the spread as opposed to the moneyline, but either is fine.

It wasn't too long ago that head coach Vic Schaefer addressed the media and called his team "soft," notably picking apart the defense. But was this the strategy all along?

• Aside from UConn, this is one of the most complete teams on both sides of the ball.

We saw the Longhorns handle Missouri State, Oregon, and Kentucky by 22 points or more. Perhaps their most impressive victory came against Michigan in the Elite 8. Truly, it was an absolute masterclass defensively, as Texas held the Wolverines to just 21 first-half points and 41 game points. I didn't have them on my bingo card to shut down Syla Swords and Olivia Olson entirely, but they did.

• Michigan shot just 13-of-57 (23%) from the field, and 2-of-15 (13% from three). Texas not only forced 15 turnovers, but tallied 11 steals.

Trust The Longhorns Defense

It was a bit concerning that Texas shot just 3-of-19 (16%) from three, but that seems to be the trend across the board this tournament. Offensively, it wasn't a perfect showing— Jordan Lee shot just 2-of-17 from the field and finished with four points.

• While Justice Carlton, Breya Cunningham, and Madison Booker scored in double figures, the true X-factor off the bench was Kyla Odacre (12 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks in 24 minutes).

Texas has depth, and a lot more of it than UCLA. And yes, I know Lauren Betts will be a problem at 6-foot-7, but Texas has size, too. The only issue is Oldacre's minutes, who stands at 6-foot-6. Oldacre and Cunningham (6-foot-4) will be vital in stopping Betts.

In 34 games, Texas ranks fifth in offensive rating (118.1), and the Longhorns were a top team in points per game (85 PPG), margin per game (29.1), and field goal percentage (50.2%).

• Leading the nation in two-pointers made and attempted, Madison Booker's mid-range game is regularly compared to that of the NBA's Kevin Durant.

There are very few stats that separate these teams. The Bruins are the No. 1 offensive team in the country (124.6 offensive rating) and put up 84.9 points per game. That said, several players are expected to declare for the 2026 WNBA Draft. This team has four players who score in double figures. Including Betts, Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez, Gianna Kneepkens, and Angela Dugalić, this is one of the best constructed UCLA teams in a while.

Texas Defeated UCLA This Season, 76-65

That said, UCLA took care of Cal Baptist and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds. Beating Minnesota 80-56 in the Sweet 16, UCLA was off to a slow start. Once again, UCLA trailed Duke in the Elite 8, but came out victorious, 70-58.

I'm not sure which team I trust more from 3-point range, Texas or UCLA. Betts is expected to score heavily inside, which will be the key to UCLA's success. I do worry that this team ranks No. 241 in 3-point rate, although they shoot 36.8% from beyond the arc.

• UCLA's defense was top-notch against Duke, holding them to just one 3-pointer made. But for the Bruins, they shot just 2-of-14 from deep.

Ultimately, this game will come down to defense. Texas ranks No. 4 in defensive rating, while UCLA fell to No. 21 (83.6). We've seen both teams shine on that front, but Texas's defense has been outstanding. They hold opponents to 55.9 points per game, and rank second in opponent points per 100 poss. (76.4).

Boasting the fourth-best NET rating (39.6) in the nation, Texas is one of the better perimeter defenses, especially with Rori Harmon at the helm. I do think it will come to do the offense of both Booker and Betts.

If you didn't know, both teams met in November, and Texas steamrolled UCLA, 76-65. The Longhorns eventually built a 23-point lead, and Harmon led with 26 points. UCLA did go on a run and cut the deficit to four points, but I have to take into account that Betts left the game in the third quarter with an injury. She finished with eight points and seven rebounds, which I don't expect again.

• Without Betts, this team produced just 65 points. Kiki Rice and Kneepkens combined for 28 points, but UCLA shot just 4-of-13 (31%) from three.

Final NCAA Women's Final Four Betting Pick & Prediction: Texas -1.5 (-115 DraftKings)

What dictated that matchup was turnovers—the Bruins tallied 20 alone. And although Texas was outrebounded, they made up for it on the offensive boards. Booker poured in 16 points, seven rebounds, and five assists, which was good enough for the win. But what really mattered was their ability to shoot 16-of-17 from the charity stripe and 6-of-15 from three.

• I'm taking Texas -1.5 and even like the moneyline. This team has been knocking at the door of a championship for years and boasts one of the best defenses in the nation. Harmon's defense is smothering, and she's been rolling in the tournament. Texas has already faced UCLA this season, and the question remains: Can Texas keep up offensively? While Jordan Lee remains a crucial X-factor, the defense alone could win them a title.  Texas has been extremely efficient with a 4-1 ATS record in the NCAA Tournament. They covered 9.5, 14.5, and 27.7-point spreads so far. Don't forget they covered (+4.5) and defeated South Carolina in the SEC Tournament finale.