2026 NCAA Women’s National Championship Odds: UConn Favored

The NCAA Women’s Final Four is here, and there are no surprises in the field. For only the second time in tournament history, the Final Four field is the same as the previous season, with UConn, UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina making it back…as expected.

(Photo by Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)

They have been the top four teams in the rankings the entire season. The only thing that changed was the order, but no one was ever really in danger of falling out of the top four. But now, it’s time to answer the $1 million question once and for all: can anyone beat Connecticut?

The Huskies have won over 50 games in a row under head coach Geno Auriemma. Only one opponent got within single digits of them this season, and that was Michigan. This is a team with an average margin of victory of 37.8 points a game. They went 7-0 against AP Top 25 teams and 9-0 against the Coaches Poll. So, they’ve played and beaten good teams, but great teams? Eh…

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NCAA Women’s National Championship Odds Update: Final Four

Here are the odds of winning the national championship for the four remaining teams (pre-tournament odds) via FanDuel Sportsbook:

• UConn -150 (-300)
• Texas +410 (+850)
• UCLA +550 (+480)
• South Carolina +650 (+950)

According to these odds, UConn now has a 60% chance of winning the national championship, down from 75%. Texas made the biggest move, going from a 10.53% chance to 19.61%. UCLA’s chance actually worsened, falling from 17.24% to 15.38%. South Carolina moved from 9.52% to 13.33%.

So, there has been a change. I’m not sure why Texas jumped over UCLA. There is not much to talk about when it comes to the Huskies. Their greatness is unquestioned as an undefeated team on a 50+ game win streak. As long as they play their game, they’ll beat South Carolina and whoever wins between UCLA and Texas. So, let’s take a closer look at South Carolina vs. UConn and Texas vs. UCLA.

No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 1 UConn Huskies

South Carolina has the longest odds of the four remaining teams, and the Gamecocks are 6.5-point underdogs to the Huskies in the Final Four. This team may not be as battle-tested in big games as some of Dawn Staley’s past South Carolina teams, but it has played a challenging schedule (13-3 vs. AP Top 25).

But playing and beating teams like Vanderbilt, LSU, Louisville, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee don’t compare to facing the Huskies. The national championship game wasn’t even close between them last season, 82-59. However, while last season’s South Carolina was more of a defense-oriented team that scored enough to win, the Gamecocks have upped their game on offense.

South Carolina has five players averaging in double digits this season (three last year). Joyce Edwards has gone from averaging just over 12 points per game to just under 20. They had higher hopes for Ta'Niya Latson, who had averaged over 20 points per game her previous three seasons at Florida State (14.4 this season).

The Gamecocks still have a solid defense, but they’ll be facing a UConn team that has the most efficient defense in the country and the second-highest scoring offense. That said, it's going to be challenging to beat sharpshooter Azzi Fudd and National Player of the Year, Sarah Strong. I can’t get behind South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a solid team, but UConn looks better than them in just about every way. But even if they do make it past the Huskies, I don’t see them beating a Texas team that has beaten them twice already, or UCLA.

No. 1 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 1 UCLA Bruins

Texas has three losses, like South Carolina, while UCLA has just one, but I’m guessing their odds have improved as much as they have because the Longhorns beat the Bruins earlier this year. But the game was really a tale of two halves: the Longhorns crushed UCLA in the first half, and UCLA won the second.

It’s worth pointing out that the game was early in the season; November 26 to be precise. That early in the season, teams are still building chemistry, figuring out who can do what the best, and what the best lineup will be.  Yes, Texas won the day, but does that mean they are the better team?

Of course not.

Over the course of the season, they ended up being pretty similar from a statistical perspective:

• Texas averaged 85 points per game; UCLA averaged 84.9
• Texas allowed 55.9 points per game; UCLA allowed 56.9
• Texas hits 50.2% of its shots; UCLA 51.3%
• Texas hits 33.8% of its 3-pointers; UCLA 36.8%
• Texas is 16-3 vs. the AP Top 25 while UCLA went 14-1

The list could go on and on, but the point is simple: these are two good, well-matched teams that will likely treat fans to an amazing game. Texas is the favorite, but the spread is just 1.5-points (DraftKings). So, it is really either team’s game to win for the right to play UConn in the title game. Texas is playing some of the best basketball in the tournament; is this the year Rori Harmon and Madison Booker win a ring?

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NCAA Women's National Championship Prediction:

• UCLA Bruins +550

It would be easy to say UConn and be done with it. As dominant as they’ve been, it’s hard to argue against it. But if I’m putting money on a team at this stage, I’m going with UCLA. Texas is a great team, but I feel like the Bruins figured them out in the second half and got better as the season went on. I’m not so sure you can say that about Texas.

The Bruins would undoubtedly be underdogs against UConn, but not by much. UCLA has the frontcourt size and length to compete with the Huskies and prevent UConn from controlling the pace for the entire game. It will be a close game, one that either could win, but with UCLA at +550 heading into the Final Four, I’m taking Lauren Betts and the Bruins.