2026 New York Liberty Win Total: O/U Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

The 2026 WNBA season is approaching.  Let's take a look at the New York Liberty roster, outlook, and over/under win total odds and predictions for this season.

 (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Liberty finished with a 27-17 record in 2025 and fell short of championship expectations. Under head coach Sandy Brondello, the team suffered injuries to Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Nyara Sabally, which affected the overall team health. Still, New York made the playoffs, although they were trounced by Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and the Phoenix Mercury in the first round of the playoffs.

2025 was considered a "down year" for the Liberty, who still finished with 27 wins and a .614 win percentage. Having won their first championship in 2024, New York finished with a 32-8 record back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. From 2018 to 2022, New York did not win over 16 games or post a .500 win percentage.

New York Liberty Favored to win the 2026 WNBA Championship

The Liberty is one of the original 1997 WNBA franchises and entered a rebuild after selecting Sabrina Ionescu (Oregon) No. 1 overall in the 2020 WNBA Draft. This was followed by the major free-agency signings of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

Heading into the WNBA's 30th season, the Liberty are favored to win the championship at +230 on FanDuel. Not too much of a surprise, their regular-season win total line is set at 32.5, the highest of any team in the league. They've been a top team in the league for at least three years now, and are viewed as top dogs among oddsmakers.

Here are the 2026 WNBA Championship odds and over/under win total odds for New York this season. Additionally, I will include offseason moves, free-agent arrivals, departures, and who the Liberty selected in the 2026 WNBA Draft.

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2026 WNBA Championship Odds (FanDuel)

• New York Liberty: +230
• Las Vegas Aces: +440
• Indiana Fever: +500
• Atlanta Dream: +500
• Minnesota Lynx: +950
• Los Angeles Sparks: +1800
• Phoenix Mercury: +1900
• Dallas Wings: +3000
• Golden State Valkyries: +3500
• Chicago Sky: +5500
• Washington Mystics: +10000
• Toronto Tempo: +12500
• Seattle Storm: +40000
• Connecticut Sun: +500000
• Portland Fire: +50000

2026 Regular Season Win Total Odds: New York Liberty (FanDuel)

• Over 32.5 (-120)
• Under 32.5 (-102)

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook*

New York Liberty: WNBA Free Agency and Offseason Additions/Departures

Free Agency 

• Rebecca Allen, Guard
• Satou Sabally, Forward
• Pauline Astier, Guard (Undrafted)

Re-Signings

• Jonquel Jones, Forward
• Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Guard
• Breanna Stewart, Forward
• Sabrina Ionescu, Guard
• Marine Johannés
• Han Xu

Drafted

• Manuela Puoch, Australia, No. 35 overall

Departures

• Kennedy Burke, Connecticut Sun
• Natasha Cloud, Chicago Sky
• Isabelle Harrison, Toronto Tempo
• Stephanie Talbot, Toronto Tempo

*Will update once roster cuts have been made official*

New York Liberty: Season Win Total Prediction

• UNDER 32.5 wins (-130)

The New York Liberty are favored to win the 2026 WNBA title, and it's easy to see why. They were one of the favorites last year, although, as mentioned previously, the injury bug touched down in Brooklyn.

Out with the old and in with the new: The Liberty parted ways with former head coach Sandy Brondello and hired longtime Golden State Warriors' assistant, Chris DeMarco. Under a new historic collective bargaining agreement, the Liberty secured the Big 3.

New York retained its core by signing Ionescu, Jones, and Stewart to multi-year, million-dollar-plus deals. Furthermore, Laney-Hamilton rejoined on a one-year, $400,000 deal. Although training camp rosters have yet to be finalized, Rebecca Allen, Marine Johannés, and Han Xu return to the Big Apple.

Liberty Bring Back Core in Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones

Perhaps the most crucial signing was Satou Sabally, who was a college teammate of Ionescu at Oregon. After spending her career with the Dallas Wings, she departed for the Phoenix Mercury in 2025. Despite beating the Liberty in the playoffs with Phoenix, Sabally joins forces with one of the most formidable rosters in the WNBA.

It almost seems unfair that the Liberty added this much talent while still fitting the contracts under the $7 million cap space. The biggest early-season concerns include Ionescu's ankle injury, Sabally's fit, and her return since suffering a concussion last October.

We are talking about a core four that averaged a combined 66.4 points, 25.4 rebounds, and 14.4 assists per game. New York will possess one of the bigger lineups featuring size, length, versatility, 3-point shooting, rebounding, and rim protection. Sabally, when healthy, is a premier WNBA player who's been nicknamed "the Unicorn" for a reason. At 6"4", she brings inside-outside scoring, in addition to rebounding and guard-like skills. Plus, Laney-Hamilton, who's a gritty two-way player, and Leonie Fiebich, who brings even more shooting and size.

The Liberty have some serious talent, although they lost Natasha Cloud and Kennedy Burke in free agency. A top-heavy team, there's certainly chemistry among the group, as New York brought back a bulk of its 2024 championship core. The question remains: how will the players fit in DeMarco's system? After all, 2026 will be his first season in the WNBA.

New York Has Never Won 33 Games in a Season

By taking under the 32.5 win total, I'm not fading New York as a championship contender. They have the size, star power, and length to beat any team. Even during their championship season, they won 32 games. Since its founding in 1997, New York hasn't soared over 32 wins. In 30 years, it boasts a 509-469 win-loss record and a .520 win percentage.

27 wins in 2025 were impressive, especially given New York battled several injuries. Most impressively, they finished 2-1 against the Las Vegas Aces, 4-1 against the Indiana Fever, 3-1 vs. the Golden State Valkyries, and 2-2 against the Atlanta Dream.

Having crushed the Washington Mystics 4-0, the Liberty struggled massively against the Mercury (1-4) and Lynx (1-3). Of all 44 games, no team swept New York in a regular-season series.

In 2025, the Liberty averaged 84.4 points per game, which was good enough for No. 5 in offensive rating (105.8). Ranking top three in NET rating (5.2), their defense dipped a bit, but could improve now that health is a factor, especially with Laney-Hamilton. Last season, they led the WNBA in assists percentage (73.7%) and free-throw percentage (83.7%), and ranked fourth in 3-pointers per game (26.8 3PA).

Last season, the Liberty were excellent at home, posting a 17-5 record, but couldn't close out road games (10-12). Having finished 15-5 against conference teams, the Liberty were one of the top teams and finished as the No. 5 seed. I do believe this road record will improve, and DeMarco's system looks drastically different with more actions.

Final Pick + Prediction: New York Liberty UNDER 32.5 Wins (-130 FanDuel)

In 2026, New York is set to face the Indiana Fever and the Chicago Sky four times, and both of those teams have improved their rosters. What may pose a challenge is an early home stretch at Barclays Center, with a heavy West Coast road trip in June.

Luckily for New York, they have just six back-to-back games. Two of which will occur at home, but in July, they head to Minnesota, then Toronto. In September, the Liberty will travel directly from Toronto to Atlanta.

Although wins are relevant to games played, the only team to surpass 32.5 wins is the Las Vegas Aces, who recorded 34 wins in 2023 and went on to win the championship against New York. The WNBA increased to 44 games in 2023, so there's not a ton of data to go off of. However, I do think the Liberty will be one of the best-performing teams this year.

• Overall, I'm taking the Liberty to total under 32.5 wins in 2026. I do think they will hover around the 30 area, and Ionescu is expected to miss at least two weeks after rolling her ankle in preseason action against the Connecticut Sun. Laney-Hamilton returns after missing the entire 2025 season, and Sabally, a volume scorer, may take some time to fit with New York as Ionescu and Stewart run the offense. Until Ionescu is healthy, everything has to go right in order for New York to tally 33 wins. While I would love to take over 32.5 games at plus money, the number is simply too high. Healthy, chemistry, and adaptation to a new coach may stand in the way of that number. That's a five-win difference from last season, and the league has only gotten more competitive. I'm predicting anywhere from 28 to 32 wins.