2026 NFL Betting Odds: Coach of the Year Favorite, Sleeper & Long Shot Predictions

Good coaching does not get talked about nearly as much as bad coaching during the NFL season. But it comes up at the end of the regular season as many teams find themselves in the hunt for a new head coach. Then there’s the NFL Head Coach of the Year award. Several organizations name one every year, but the one that we bet on is awarded by the Associated Press as part of the NFL Honors awards show prior to the Super Bowl.

Before we discuss some favorites, sleeper picks, and long shots, let’s go over the latest odds for several of the top candidates.

(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

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Odds for AP NFL Head Coach of the Year, 2026-2027

The following are the latest odds for the top 16 head coaches listed with odds at FanDuel:

• John Harbaugh (Giants) +650
• Jesse Minter (Ravens) +850
• Kevin Stefanski (Falcons) +1400
• Kellen Moore (Saints) +1400
• Joe Brady (Bills) +1500
• Ben Johnson (Bears) +1500
• Brian Schttenheimer (Cowboys) +1600
• Robert Saleh (Titans) +1600
• Klint Kubiak (Raiders) +1700
• Jim Harbaugh (Chargers) +1900
• Dan Campbell (Lions) +2200
• Liam Coen (Jaguars) +2200
• Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +2200
• Aaron Glenn (Jets) +2500
• Zac Taylor (Bengals) +2700
• Dan Quinn (Commanders) +2700

It is worth noting that the award isn’t necessarily about who’s the best head coach in the NFL. If that was the case, Bill Belichick would have won more than three times during the Patriots' dynastic run during his tenure. The award is about who does the best or most noteworthy job in a given season. There isn’t really a set-in-stone criteria that the voters have to adhere to when deciding who to vote for.

But, over the years, certain characteristics have emerged as leading traits of potential winners.

Assessing the COY criteria

Measurable improvement is crucial. A team has to get better, and we typically judge that by the number of wins compared to the year before. Last season’s winner, Patriots HC Mike Vrabel, took over a 4-13 team and turned it into a 14-3 squad that eventually made it to the Super Bowl. So, first-year head coaches are often the most popular candidates early on because there is more room for their teams to improve (since new coaches typically take over losing teams).

Then there are things we can’t account for until they happen. For example, Bruce Arians was supposed to be the offensive coordinator for the Colts in 2012.  But when first-year head coach Chuck Pagano had to step away to undergo treatment for leukemia, Arians stepped up. Indianapolis went 9-3 under him, and the Colts went from 2-14 to 11-5 and made the playoffs.

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NFL Head Coach of the Year: My Picks

Favorite: Kevin Stefanski, Atlanta Falcons +1400 (FanDuel)

Kevin Stefanski isn’t taking over a four-win team, so the dramatic improvement that voters often like may not be as apparent. But he is taking over a team that has had a losing record each of the last eight seasons. However, the tools are in place for a quick turnaround.

Bijan Robinson is one of the best young running backs in the NFL. Drake London, Jahan Dotson, and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. are a formidable pass-catching trio. If the offensive line can keep either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. off the ground, the potential for this passing game is impressive.

That is where Stefanski can make his mark. He must figure out how to turn one of those guys into a QB1.  Tagovailoa has had flashes of greatness in the NFL but has been inconsistent and injury-prone. Penix Jr. was a gunslinger in college, but we haven’t really seen that side of him in the NFL.

Stefanski did good work with Baker Mayfield in 2020, leading to a rare winning season for the Browns and his first COY award. In 2023, he had to navigate the season with five different starting quarterbacks. The Browns still won 11 games and made the playoffs (leading to his second COY award).

He has better tools to work with in Atlanta and arguably more talented quarterbacks. If he can get either Tua or Penix on track, the Falcons can easily win four more games this season. Four more wins will make them a 12-5 team. That will probably be enough for the Falcons to make the playoffs and possibly win the division. If that happens, Stefanski win his third COY award.

Sleeper: Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints +1400 (FanDuel)

I’m calling Kellen Moore my sleeper pick because I think it is less of a given that the Saints will be better this season (his second as head coach). But once the team settled on Tyler Shough at quarterback last season, the offense started to take shape. With Shough at QB, New Orleans went 4-1 in its last five games.

As a six-win team in 2025, the room for improvement is there. But why should we believe it may happen? In his first season as the offensive coordinator for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys in 2019, Prescott’s numbers went from 3,885 yards passing and 22 touchdowns to 4,902 yards (his career high) and 30 touchdowns.

That was Moore working with a three-year veteran and an established starter going into the season. As a rookie, Shough probably didn’t get too many first-team reps prior to taking over as QB1 midseason. Yet, Shough still showed a lot of improvement by the end of the season.

With an offseason, training camp, and preseason as the guy getting the bulk of the first team reps, we could see Shough make a similar leap this season. If he does, the Saints (with a last-place schedule) could easily win five or six more games this season. If they do, they’ll possibly win the division and/or make the playoffs. Should that happen, Moore could win COY.

But it all depends on if Shough can make a Dak Prescott-type leap forward this season without the additional experience Prescott had (that's a pretty big "if").

Long Shot: Mike LaFleur, Arizona Cardinals +3500 (FanDuel)

Mike LaFleur has a lot of things going for him when it comes to his COY potential. The Cardinals were terrible last season (3-14). The offense was No. 23 in scoring (20.9 points per game) and the defense No. 29 (28.7 ppg allowed). So, the room for improvement is certainly there and will be easy to see.

As a first-year head coach in his first season with the Cardinals, voters are even more likely to take notice. But will this team be better? Having a favorable schedule will help. It is possible with the pieces LaFleur has to work with on the offensive side.

Jacoby Brissett looked good when he took over as starting QB midseason last year. He’ll undoubtedly be QB1 to start the season, but if Carson Beck continues to impress like he did in the Hall of Fame game (…Yes, that was just a preseason game) and Brissett gets off to a slow start, we could see a switch.

Of course, it will be easier for whoever the quarterback is to do their job if rookie running back Jeremiyah Love lives up to his potential. If he does, Arizona will have a solid run game for the first time in years. But the key may be getting more out of Marvin Harrison Jr. The former Ohio State superstar has yet to make that star turn in the NFL. But if LaFleur’s offense can do for Harrison Jr. what it did for Puka Nacua, we could see Harrison Jr. make that leap this season.

A lot of things have to go right for LaFleur and the Cardinals for him to be a legitimate candidate, but crazier things have happened in the NFL before.