2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: Fernando Mendoza a Heavy Favorite

We are just two days away from the 2026 NFL Draft, and there are some high-profile players at the top of the board. The Las Vegas Raiders hold the No. 1 pick, so let's break down the No. 1 pick odds and who's likely to be selected first overall on Thursday. Will Fernando Mendoza go first? Let's break it down.

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The 2026 NFL Draft is one of the most exciting yet unpredictable events of the year. Unless you're the Las Vegas Raiders. Oddsmakers have former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza listed at -20000 odds to be selected No. 1 overall. The odds are so steep, I would not recommend playing a bet on this. If you place $100 on this bet, you would win $0.50.

Yes, that's how highly he's favored to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Mendoza may be the clear favorite to hear his name called first, but let's break down the top three candidates that are in the top overall conversation.

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2026 NFL Draft: No. 1 Overall Odds (FanDuel)

• Fernando Mendoza (-20000)
• Arvell Reese (+10000)
• David Bailey (+15000)
• Carnell Tate (+30000)
• Spencer Fano (+30000)
• Caleb Downs (+30000)

Heavy Favorite: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Mendoza is the ultimate success story. He bet on himself and transferred to Indiana for his final season after spending two years with California. What a difference a year makes: he was the Heisman Trophy winner and won the NCAA College Football Championship with Indiana. Behind a success story is a quarterback who led Indiana to a perfect 16-0 season. A proven leader and winner, Mendoza posted a stat line of 3,535 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns,  7 rushing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 276 rushing yards.

The Raiders are desperate to start over and have struggled to find their franchise quarterback since Derek Carr. The Geno Smith/Pete Carroll experience didn't quite pan out, and the team signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason.

Mendoza has praised Cousins in several clips shared on social media, and he could become a franchise quarterback if drafted.

Why Mendoza Is a Great Fit for the Raiders

There's a 99.5% chance that Mendoza gets selected No. 1 overall, and as mentioned previously, betting on this is not worth the risk.

The presumed No. 1 pick opted to give measurements and interviews during the NFL combine rather than throwing. His resume speaks for itself, and he has often been compared to Daniel Jones or even Jared Goff.

Mendoza has size at 6'5", and he's also a pretty mobile quarterback. The No. 1 quarterback in the class, Mendoza boasted the second-best adjusted completion percentage in the country (79.2%) and possesses the toughness and perseverance any team would love to have.

He thrives out of the shotgun and has the IQ to make smart decisions. If taken No. 1 by the Raiders, he could thrive in Klint Kubiak's West Coast offense. Even if he's not named the starter, Cousins is a great veteran to learn from. The Raiders desperately need a quarterback: they ranked last in the NFL in yards per game (245.5), averaged just 167.7 passing yards per game, and scored the lowest-point total in the league (14.2). On the offensive end, it starts and ends with the quarterback.

Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State

There is a case for Arvell Reese to go No. 1 overall, although I am going to assume the Jets may decide between Reese and David Bailey with the No. 2 pick.

Oddsmakers have Reese at +10000 odds to be drafted No. 1 overall. That means if you were to place $5 on this, the payout would be $505. It's a high-risk, high-reward, so don't bet your mortgage on this.

The Raiders went all in defensively, signing Eric Stokes, Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Malcolm Koonce, and Kwity Paye in free agency. Then there's the Maxx Crosby saga: the Raiders traded Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens, but the deal was ultimately canceled due to a failed physical.  The thought of a healthy Crosby and Reese would be talked about for years.

The Raiders ranked No. 23 in EPA/pass last season, and ranked near the bottom of the league in quarterback pressure (19.4%) and quarterback pressures (115).

Although unlikely, some folks have Reese as the top player in this year's draft. Not only did he run a 4.46 at the combine, but he's only a junior. Last season with Ohio State, he posted 69 total tackles, 34 solo, 35 assists, and 6.5 sacks.

There's no doubt that the Raiders could benefit from one of the best edge rushers in this class. He's versatile, hybrid, and made himself known as an outside linebacker and edge rusher at this year's combine. One of the many Buckeyes on the list, Reese most likely won't go No. 1 overall, but the odds offer a risky yet high-value bet. Reese, Sonny Styles, and Bailey are all projected to go top five in the NFL Draft.

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Long shot: Carnell Tate (+30000)

This is a real long shot, considering that Keyshawn Johnson was the last wide receiver to be drafted by the New York Jets No. 1 overall in 1996. In fact, only three wideouts have ever heard their name called first, so this is a real long shot. At +30000, it's a high-risk bet that would pay out $1,505 on a $5 wager.

There's no question that Tate is one of the best receivers in the draft. Standing just over 6'2", he posted a stat line of 51 receptions, 875 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns with Ohio State last season. Having spent three years with the Buckeyes, he averaged 17.2 yards per catch and established himself as a premier target alongside Jeremiah Smith. That said, it's hard to tell if he can blossom as a true WR1 in the NFL.

The Buckeyes have produced plenty of first-round wideouts in the past, including Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson.

A receiver would make sense for the Raiders, who are led by star tight end Brock Bowers. Las Vegas is far past the Davante Adams era and traded away Jakobi Meyers. They did sign Jalen Nailor in free agency, but the Raiders' receiver corps includes Tre Tucker and Jack Bech.

Last season, the Raiders ranked near last in offensive DVOA and passing DVOA. The need for a receiver is clear. The good news is that the Raiders have 10 picks in the draft, including second and third-rounders. Tate is considered one of the best route runners in the draft and has the ability to get downfield. While Tate and Bowers would be a lethal duo, expect the Raiders to still select Mendoza.