2026 NFL Draft Odds & Best Bets for Top 5 Picks (April 23)

The 2026 NFL Draft is here, and the big event will take place in Pittsburgh tonight. Several highly prominent names, including Fernando Mendoza, David Bailey, Arvell Reese, Jeremiyah Love,  Sonny Styles, and Ty Simpson, headline the draft. The question remains: which NFL team will they get drafted by? Let's take a look at the odds for the top five picks for tonight.

(Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

Fernando Mendoza is the clear favorite to go No. 1 overall, and his odds went from -20000 to -50000 in a two-day span. The Las Vegas Raiders hold the No. 1 pick—Mendoza is likely headed to Sin City.

The remainder of the NFL Draft is unknown. Following the top pick, the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants own picks 2–5. Last season was the ultimate tankathon for these teams, but it's all about team needs and fit.

Here are the top five player odds and best bets for the 2026 NFL Draft first round.

If you're looking for more NFL and sports betting promotions, we have gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here.

2026 NFL Draft Schedule

• Round 1: Thursday, April 23—8 p.m. ET
• Rounds 2 & 3: Friday, April 24—7 p.m. ET
• Rounds 4—7: Saturday, April 25—12 p.m. ET

*Draft is available on the NFL Network, ESPN, ABC, ESPN2*

2026 NFL Draft Odds & Best Bets for Round 1 on April 23 (FanDuel)

No. 1 Overall Pick Odds: Las Vegas Raiders

• Fernando Mendoza: -50000
• David Bailey: +12500
• Arvell Reese: +12500
• Carnell Tate: +300000
• Caleb Downs: +30000

No. 1 Overall Pick Prediction

As I mentioned in my previous article, Mendoza is the consensus No. 1 overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders. In a matter of two days, oddsmakers favored Mendoza from -20000 to -50000 odds! It's not worth the risk, meaning if you were to place $100 on this, you would win $.20. Yes, 20 cents.

I'm fully expecting the Raiders to select Mendoza here. There's a clear need for a quarterback after Geno Smith's time expired, and he ended up back with the New York Jets. Las Vegas did sign veteran Kirk Cousins, but there's clearly a need for a franchise quarterback, one that's been missing since the departure of Derek Carr.

The Raiders finished 3-14 last season, so there's plenty of talent and positions to fill. Aforementioned, they bolstered their defense in free agency by adding Eric Stokes, Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, and Kwity Paye. Plus, they have the Maxx Crosby dilemma, who they traded to the Baltimore Ravens, but was canceled due to a failed physical.

The defense is shaping up, but the offensive line is worrisome. The Raiders did sign Tyler Linderbaum (formerly Ravens), which should help protect Mendoza somewhat. It's clear this team has other needs at wide receiver, secondary, and offensive line, but I'm fairly confident Mendoza is the pick here.

Mendoza is a Heisman Trophy winner and a National Champion with Indiana. He's a gritty, tough player who has a tremendous success story. The Raiders did sign Linderbaum to the richest center contract in history, and he has a stud at tight end with Brock Bowers. The remainder of the wideout corps includes Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, and Jalen Nailor, who was signed in free agency.

Best Bet: Fernando Mendoza: -50000 (FanDuel)

Mendoza will look to follow in the footsteps of several quarterbacks who were drafted No. 1 overall and went on to become franchise stars. Some, but not all, include Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, Joe Burrow, and Matthew Stafford.

The last quarterback to be selected No. 1 overall was Caleb Williams by the Chicago Bears in 2024. It's clear the Raiders will follow in those footsteps, unless Mendoza pulls an Eli Manning...

Mendoza threw for 41 touchdowns and just six interceptions in his only season with the Hoosiers. Plus, he has the size, IQ, and toughness that a franchise looks for in its future quarterback. The question remains: how will Mendoza fit into new head coach Klint Kubiak's system? Given he's a shotgun-type quarterback, it will be interesting to see how he fits under center.

• Either way, Mendoza has a three-level accuracy and has shown he can move the chains with his legs. Last season, the Raiders ranked No. 31 in offensive DVOA and No. 30 in passing DVOA. In addition, they averaged a league-low 14.2 points per game. It's too risky to bet on this, but Mendoza is likely the pick.

No. 2 Overall Pick Odds: New York Jets

• David Bailey: -130
• Arvell Reese: +110
• Rueben Bain Jr.: +12500
• Jeremiyah Love: +12500
• Sonny Styles: +12500

No. 2 Overall Pick Prediction

This might be the most intriguing pick of the draft. The Jets have been in disarray for quite some time, and they gutted their team last season by trading away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. The team has franchise cornerstones in wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall, but how much longer will they stick around?

It appears the Justin Fields era is over, and the Jets signed Geno Smith to become their newest quarterback. It's a full circle moment for Smith, who was drafted by the Jets in the second round in 2013. There are several needs for this team: they upgraded the defense by signing/acquiring Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick, in addition to several other defensive players.

It's clear the Jets are rebuilding the defense first, which is not a terrible idea. But in reality, they need a quarterback, and Ty Simpson could fit the bill (+15000). The Jets desperately need a wide receiver, and it's possible they take a player such as Carnell Tate (+30000). I do think they will take a receiver in the second round. Therefore, I'm going with David Bailey (-130) out of Texas Tech.

There's been some talk of Reese, but it seems Bailey is the most pro-ready edge. Bailey is arguably the best edge in the draft, and time will tell if that's true or not. Bailey is a true edge rusher, while Reese is a hybrid, so the Jets could definitely fill a need here. Having transferred to Texas Tech for his senior season, Bailey compiled 52 total tackles, 32 solo tackles, and 14.5 sacks!

Best Bet: David Bailey: -130

Not to mention, Bailey ran a 4.5 at the 40-yard dash, which is pretty impressive for a player with a 6'4", 251-pound frame. He has an extremely explosive first step and would complement Joseph Ossai well.  Will McDonald had eight sacks last season, but Bailey is the clear upgrade here.

I do believe the Jets will select either Bailey or Reese at No. 2, and it's been known that they've been targeting a solid edge rusher for quite some time. Reese recorded just 6.5 sacks last season and is more of a multi-positional player.

• I'm taking David Bailey No. 2 overall here (-130). The favorite to go second overall, he should instantly provide a boost to a Jets team that recorded the second-fewest sacks (26) last season. In addition, New York ranked last in the NFL in quarterback pressure percentage (15.1%), along with a 5.8% quarterback knockdown percentage. 

No. 3 Overall Pick Odds: Arizona Cardinals

• Arvell Reese: +165
• Jeremiyah Love: +185
• David Bailey: +280
• Francis Mauigoa: +1200
• Sonny Styles: +2200

This is where the NFL draft gets really interesting. The Cardinals are poised to make some noise in this year's draft with Nos. 3, 34, 65, and so on. Arizona moved on from Kyler Murray at quarterback and finished the season with a 3-14 record.

And, the Cardinals owe Murray nearly $35.5 million in 2026, but he moved on to the Vikings. That's quite a tough pill to swallow. While I'm fully expecting Arizona to land the pick, I also wouldn't be surprised if they drafted it here.

If I'm GM Monti Ossenfort, there are a few options here. If Arvell Reese is taken in the top two, I think they have to take Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson (+15000) here. The Cardinals have some weapons on offense, including receivers Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. Not to mention, Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and they signed running back Tyler Allgeier to complement James Conner in the backfield. So in reality, Simpson would make a ton of sense here, even if they do have Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew on the depth chart.

This team is a quarterback and offensive line help away from buiilding a solid core. 

Best Bet: Arvell Reese: +165

I'm thinking the Cardinals could grab Simpson in the second round if he hasn't already been claimed. But the pick here has to be Arvell Reese (+165) if he falls. I think in this scenario, you can't let Reese drop below three, who is, again, a hybrid off-ball linebacker and edge rusher.

The Cardinals do need help at edge rusher, although they have Jordan Burch sitting behind Josh Sweat and Darius Robinson. There's a lot of buzz surrounding Love to the Cardinals, but I like Reese here. He's already been compared to Packers' Micah Parsons, and his unique hybrid skill set could bring a boost to the defense headlined by Budda Baker.

I do think a trade could happen here, or maybe Arizona takes Simpson at three. Talent and needs-wise, I'm taking Arvell Reese No. 3 overall (+165) to the Cardinals. If you sprinkle $10 on this, you would win $16.50.

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No. 4 Overall Pick Odds: Tennessee Titans

• Sonny Styles: +145
• Jeremiyah Love: +180
• Arvell Reese: +600
• David Bailey: +800
• Carnell Tate: +2700

The Tennessee Titans revamped quite a bit this season. From a new logo to personnel, the Titans hired Brian Daboll as the newest offensive coordinator. The franchise has suffered since the firing of former head coach Mike Vrabel, and finished 3-14 last season.

With Robert Saleh at the helm as head coach, the franchise is headed for a full rebuild. It started by drafting quarterback Cam Ward No. 1 last season after the failed Will Levis experiment. That said, Ward didn't exactly have the most productive rookie year.

Either way, the team remains committed to Ward, leaving the Titans in a tough spot. They have running backs with Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Do you take a generational talent in Jeremiyah Love here? Either the Titans will select the best overall player, or they will go the route of need.

We all remember what happened to Derrick Henry, right? It's really hard to envision the Titans investing in a franchise running back right now, given their depth.

Sonny Styles would make sense here, given that the Titans ranked No. 29 in defensive DVOA last season.

Best Bet: Carnell Tate: +2700

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Titans select wide receiver Carnell Tate (+2700 here). They have a crowded receiver corps with Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor, and recently signed Wandale Robinson in free agency. However, Ridley played just seven games this season, and the Titans could use some weapons for Ward.

I don't know if I see Tate as a true WR1, but he recorded 51 receptions, 875 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns in his final year at Ohio State. Mind you, that was alongside wideout Jeremiah Love.

There's no question that Jeremiyah Love is the better draft prospect here, but Tate fits the team's needs. And while his draft combine numbers created some buzz, he's one of the best elite route runners in the draft. Robinson is more of a slot guy, while Tate is a vertical guy with great hands. If they don't take Tate, I would expect teams to draft up to take him.

No. 5 Overall Pick Odds: New York Giants

• Sonny Styles: +260
• Jordyn Tyson: +290
• Jeremiyah Love: +320
• Caleb Downs: +330
• Arvell Reese: +1100

At least, the New York Football Giants. John Harbaugh is the newest head coach, and the Giants are headed for a serious rebuild. So long, Brian Daboll. There is a new Chief in town. The Giants found their quarterback in Jaxson Dart and have three solid pieces on defense in Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Abdul Carter. If Reese is still available here, the Giants would have to take him, in my opinion.

The Giants had another losing season at 4-13, but lost both Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo to season-ending injuries. Jeremiyah Love should be the pick here, even if the Giants have a crowded running back room. Skattebo hasn't proven himself as an RB1, and was injured for half of the season. In eight games, he did record 410 rushing yards and five touchdowns, and proved himself as the goal-line back.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants selected wide receiver Jordyn Tyson out of Arizona State here, given that the receiving room is relatively weak outside of Nabers with Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney. I truly believe Love is the pick here. Considered a generational talent, both Love and Skattebo could become the next Jahmiyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Love would become the first running back New York would pick in the top five since Saquon Barkley in 2018. And it's clear that the position isn't as valued as it was in years past. We've seen only Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliot among a handful of running backs to go top five in the past. So, will the Giants break the cycle here?

Best Bet: Jeremiyah Love: +320

New York needs help in the defensive line following the Dexter Lawrence trade to Cincinnati, along with the secondary, offensive line, and wide receivers. There are several holes to fill here, and the least sense is the running back position. In fact, it was one of the only sort of bright spot last season: New York ranked No. 14 in rushing DVOA.

Love spent three years at Notre Dame and recorded 1,372 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns, 3 receiving touchdowns, and 280 receiving yards. I wouldn't be surprised if he was picked earlier, and is considered one of the best running backs in Fighting Irish history.

• He may even be the best player in the draft, period. He's explosive and has the speed of a top running back, and he is also a threat in the backfield. Having been compared to Christian McCaffrey, I think the Giants take Love here. They have another pick at 10 to fill other needs.