2026 NFL Draft Odds: Ty Simpson Draft Position O/U & Related NFL Markets

Ty Simpson had a solid season in his first and only year as the starter for the Alabama Crimson Tide last season. His overall grade for last season from PFF was 87.7, which was good enough to rank 32nd among 302 graded quarterbacks. But did he play well enough in one season to get drafted? If so, when and by whom?

Many thought Simpson would have been better off returning to Alabama and playing another season in college before jumping to the NFL. But he entered the NFL draft anyway and will get selected at some point this week.

Let’s take a closer look at Simpson and some of the NFL draft markets related to him.

(Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

Making a Case For Drafting Ty Simpson

It is almost impossible to be a good NFL team without a quality player at quarterback. That is why the quarterback position is considered the most important one for NFL teams. It’s why teams will often move heaven and earth to get in position to take one in the first round of the NFL draft.

But is Simpson one of those guys?

If teams are looking for a dual-threat type of quarterback, the answer is easy — no. Last season, he recorded 90 total rushing attempts at Alabama for 93 yards and two touchdowns. But if they want a quarterback with above-average arm talent that can zip throws between zone coverage and has a good feel for progressions, he may be just what they are looking for.

As a passer, Simpson graded out at 84.7 according to PFF, ranking him 32nd among 302 graded quarterbacks. He completed 64.5% of his passes (305 for 473) for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and threw five interceptions.

There is a lot to like about Simpson, but several things could concern teams. He seemed to have trouble dealing with pressure down the stretch last season and needs to become more consistent in the pocket. He’s not afraid to step up, which is good, but his overall pocket management needs to improve.

Simpson has the physical traits teams like to see in a starting quarterback, and the raw talent is certainly there. Many of the negatives about his game can be worked out in time and with more experience. So, it will likely come down to whether a team wants to take the time to develop him and when they’ll select him.

Ty Simpson NFL Draft Odds: Over/Under

According to FanDuel, the Over/Under for Ty Simpson’s draft position is:

• Over 29.5 -118
• Under 29.5 -118

Mock drafts have been all over the place regarding Simpson. At one time, he was considered a potential first-round pick, taken in the high teens to the low 20s. But the general perception of him is now that he’s more likely to go late in the first round or in the second.

The consensus board at NFL Mock Draft Database has him going No. 21 overall to the Pittsburgh Steelers. But many mocks have him going anywhere from 28-32, and in many cases to the Arizona Cardinals. Neither team would need to start him right away. Arizona has not committed to a starter but has two experienced players on the roster (Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II). Pittsburgh is hoping to get Aaron Rodgers back, but Rodgers has yet to commit.

Several teams could view him as a good project QB and trade back into the first round to secure the fifth-year option. But if they were to do so, they’d probably target one of the final picks, i.e., No. 30-32.

NFL Draft Odds: Which Team Will Draft Ty Simpson?

The top eight destinations according to the odds at DraftKings are:

• Arizona Cardinals -200
• New York Jets +280
• Los Angeles Rams +550
• Pittsburgh Steelers +1400
• Cleveland Browns +1900
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2000
• Philadelphia Eagles +2000
• Miami Dolphins +2000

It is so easy to speculate on where he could end up. Simpson is not considered a QB ready to start right away, which opens the door to speculation about anyone who needs a quarterback now or in the near future.  Ideally, he’ll go somewhere he can sit for a year or two.

If the Cardinals are patient, he could sit behind Jacoby Brissett for a year in Arizona. Geno Smith is a bridge quarterback at best for the Jets, making them a potential destination. Even if Aaron Rodgers comes back to Pittsburgh this season, the Steelers need an heir apparent. Could Simpson ask for a better role model than Rodgers?

The rumor mill has the Los Angeles Rams very interested in Simpson. Matthew Stafford is nearing the end of his career and would be a great person for Simpson to learn from. The scheme fits Simpson’s skillset, and the Rams already have great skill-position players in place.

Odds To Be a First Round Pick: -300 (bet365)

Simpson is considered the No. 2 quarterback in this draft class, but that doesn’t mean much, since this class is considered weak for quarterbacks beyond Fernando Mendoza. But as the second-best option, Simpson is likely to garner some interest from teams as early as the latter half of the first round.

It could be because they believe in his talent enough to take him that high. But it may be more likely they want the fifth-year option, so that they can have another season at a reasonable rate before deciding whether to pay him. But the problem with taking Simpson in the first round is that teams could find better value at other positions of need. Taking Simpson in the first round may be a reach.

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Ty Simpson NFL Draft Odds: My Pick(s)

I’m passing on Simpson to be a first-round pick. It makes sense for anyone interested in him to trade up and take him late in the first for the fifth-year option. But at that price, there is too much risk and not enough reward, for my taste. Consequently, I would take Over 29.5 at -118 (DraftKings). If he goes in the first, I think it will be to someone trading up to No. 30-32. Otherwise, he’ll be a second-round pick or later.

As for which team, there is no value in the Cardinals at minus-money odds, but the Rams seem like the most intriguing spot and potentially the best fit. At +550, that is definitely a bet I’m willing to make. I also see a lot of value in Tampa Bay at +2000. Baker Mayfield is going into the final year of his contract.

If the Bucs believe Simpson could be ready after sitting for one year, he’d be a great pick for them (and a lot cheaper than Mayfield).