2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship Odds: Aces vs. Liberty Preview & Predictions

The 2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship is set. The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty will match up in this year's championship. Let's take a look at the preview, betting odds, and my prediction of who will be crowned the winner.

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

From June 1 to June 17, Commissioner's Cup games took place among 15 WNBA teams. Ultimately, the Liberty won the Eastern Conference (6-0) and the Aces snuck out of the Western Conference (6-1). Point differential, record, and all, New York and Las Vegas are the last two teams standing.

The Commissioner's Cup Championship is set to take place on June 30, and the Liberty will get home-court advantage at Barclays Center. Since the Cup was introduced in 2021, both the Liberty and Aces have won each. In 2023, the Liberty were crowned Commissioner's Cup champions after defeating the Aces on their home court. Later that year, Las Vegas defeated New York to win the 2023 WNBA Finals.

The Aces last won the Cup in 2022 against the Chicago Sky; the Liberty's last appearance came in 2024. Having lost to the Minnesota Lynx, the game wasn't a true home advantage as it was moved to UBS Arena due to the NBA Draft.

Aces and Liberty Meet Again...

A rematch at last, the Liberty will play in front of their home fans, and the Aces vs. Liberty rivalry continues. The Knicks just won a championship. Can New York add to that? Or will the Aces stand on business in New York? They are the defending WNBA champions after all...

There's been a lot of rivalries that headline the WNBA, but this is one of them. And what better way to celebrate the WNBA's 30th season? The Aces and Liberty have defined the WNBA, as both teams have dominated the WNBA Finals since 2022. The Aces are defending champions and have won three titles in four years. For the Liberty, they won their first-ever WNBA championship in 2024 against the Lynx.

With a rematch of both the Cup and Finals, the Aces and Liberty stay atop the WNBA as the upper-echelon of teams. With multiple playoff head-to-heads and regular-season matchups, this game will mean something beyond the money or trophy.

Here is the Commissioner's Cup schedule, betting odds, and my best prediction of who will raise the trophy. Let's take a look at the series preview. A trophy and a $500,000 prize pool are on the line! The Indiana Fever won it last year. Let's see who will win in 2026.

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What's on the Line?

Think of the WNBA Commissioner's Cup similar to the NBA's In-Season Tournament. There's more than just a trophy on the line. Some players make seven figures following the new collective bargaining agreement; however, some don't come close. Both teams will fight for a $500,000 prize pool, which amounts to approximately $30,000 per player.

Additionally, the Commissioner's Cup MVP will be awarded $5,000, and the charitable donation pool exceeds $200,000, per the WNBA. Each team has a local charity to which they will donate. For the Aces, it's the Public Education Foundation. For the Liberty, it's the African American Policy Forum.

The winner of the championship will have a $10,000 donation made to their non-profit organization. Furthermore, $5,000 will be made to the runner-up's local charity organization.

2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship: Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Betting Odds (FanDuel)

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Updated as of June 18, 2026, at 6:30 p.m. ET.

If you're betting on the WNBA and the Commissioner's Cup Championship, welcome! The finale will take place on June 30, 2026, at Barclays Center. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET, and the matchup will air on Prime Video. Here are my top predictions and best bets for the Aces vs. Liberty Commissioner's Cup Final. Included in this article are Cup MVP odds and early predictions.

Commissioner's Cup MVP Odds (DraftKings)

• Breanna Stewart (+150)
• A'ja Wilson (+160)
• Jonquel Jones (+800)
• Sabrina Ionescu (+900)
• Satou Sabally (+1500)
• Jackie Young (+1700)
• Chelsea Gray (+3000)
• Marine Johannès (+10000)

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Updated as of June 18, 2026, at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Past Commissioner's Cup Winners

2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup: Aces vs. Liberty Best Bets & Prediction

New York Liberty -3.5 (-105 DraftKings)

This is an early lock, I'm taking the New York Liberty to cover the 3.5-point spread against the Las Vegas Aces.

Both teams deserved to be here—the Liberty and Aces are tied for the WNBA's second-best record at 11-4. New York is riding an eight-game win streak, while the Aces are fresh off a much-needed 86-76 victory over the Phoenix Mercury.

The Liberty cruised to the Finals and punched their ticket to the Cup championship game after a perfect 6-0 record through cup play. They won the point differential (+64) in the Eastern Conference with wins over the Toronto Tempo, Indiana Fever, Connecticut Sun, Atlanta Dream, Washington Mystics, and Chicago Sky.

I'm not saying that's the most challenging schedule, but the Liberty beat the Fever 83-75, and then defeated the Dream on the road, 104-90.

Led by new head coach Chris DeMarco, New York is a top-four team on both sides of the ball this season. Mind you, they've produced this much with injuries. With Sabrina Ionescu back in action, this is one of the most lethal teams on paper. They possess the experience, size, length, and versatility.

New York is so talented that Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Satou Sabally are coming off the bench. The Aces are extremely talented and top-heavy, but I like New York's starting five and depth better.

Why the Liberty Can Cover the Spread Against the Aces

Over New York's eight-game win streak, the team owns the second-best defensive rating (98.3) and fourth-best offensive rating (111.9) in the WNBA. Owning the second-best NET rating (+13.6) in the league, New York has been the best rebounding team in the WNBA (55.1%). Although turnovers remain a problem, they own the best true shooting percentage (60.3%) over that span.

It's been nearly a year since these two teams have met. The Liberty swept the regular-season series 2-0 in 2025 and boasts an 8-2 record vs. the Aces over their last 10 outings. Of those last 10 meetings, New York is 5-1 on its home court against Las Vegas.

The Aces were in a three-way race in the Western Conference, but ultimately prevailed over the Dallas Wings and Minnesota Lynx, posting a 6-1 Cup record with a +24 point differential. While the Lynx dominated with a 6-1 record and +127 point differential, it all came down to head-to-head stats. The Aces beat the WNBA's best Lynx, 100-97, on June 13.

 Are the Liberty the Best Team in the WNBA?

Both teams have identical records, but here's why I like the Liberty. It was a rough start to the season for New York, which lost two games to the expansion franchise Portland Fire. What impressed me the most so far this season is their 14-point victory over the Dream, their victory over the Fever, and two wins over the Mercury. While they've yet to face the Lynx or Aces, the Liberty have been one of the strongest teams.

The Aces are a top-three team offensively, but where these two teams differ is defense, NET rating, and depth. The Aces post a +5.0 NET rating, and rank No. 9 in defensive rating (107.8). Aforementioned, the Aces are top-heavy. The core of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray remains one of the most formidable trios in the league.

Wilson is having another MVP-caliber season, and Jackie Young is heating up after a slow start. Still, I have questions. Chennedy Carter was a steal in free agency and is a legitimate Sixth Player of the Year candidate. However, she's missed three consecutive games with an illness, and it's unclear if she'll be back.  If not, it will be tough to match up with the Liberty as she provided over 14 points per game.

WNBA Commissioner's Cup Best Bet & Prediction: Liberty -3.5 (-105 DraftKings)

Also, NaLyssa Smith has been having a fantastic season in the frontcourt, but the production of Jewell Loyd, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Brianna Turner, and Kiersten Bell is too inconsistent. The Aces average the fourth-fewest bench points (20.9), while the Liberty bench produces 24.7.

I'm never counting out the Aces, but the Liberty are playing some pretty darn good basketball. They own the third-best point differential in the league (+6.6), backed by a starting five of Sabrina Ionescu, Marinne Johannès, Leonie Fiebich, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones. Not to mention, Sabally, Laney-Hamilton, and Pauline Astier are coming off the bench. The size of this team is truly unmatched.

• I'm laying the points with the Liberty (-3.5) early. New York is 6-2 ATS over their 8-game win streak and is 6-3 ATS as favorites by 10 points or less. The Liberty haven't been great at covering large spreads, but 4-1 ATS when favored by 5.5-points or less. I like the Liberty at home here. Expect this line to change as the week goes on. The Liberty put up 88.9 points per game and can beat any team in a variety of ways. A heavy 3-point shooting team, New York boasts a 36.4% 3-point percentage with 9.9 made threes per game. 

Breanna Stewart: Commissioner's Cup MVP (+150 DraftKings)

Breanna Stewart was named Commissioner's Cup MVP in 2021 as a member of the Seattle Storm. In the past, it wasn't always the most obvious choice. Jonquel Jones won the award with the Liberty against the Aces in 2023. In 2025, Natasha Howard shocked the world after earning Cup MVP with the Fever.

Stewart has had plenty of matchups with A'ja Wilson and various frontcourts. A two-time MVP, she's a pro's pro. I would pick A'ja Wilson here, but I'm betting on the Liberty to win and cover the spread.

Stewart is putting together another nice season, ranking fifth in scoring (19.7). On a loaded Liberty team, she's averaging 8.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks in 15 games. While her 3-point percentage is down (20%), she's New York's leading scorer.

Jonquel Jones has been used heavily on the perimeter, so I like Stewart here. Although the Cup is over a week away, Stewart has produced consistently for New York. In 2026, she has two 30+-point performances and six 20+-point outings.

In her career, she's averaged 22.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game against the Aces. She's been playing heavy minutes for DeMarco and remains highly utilized (26.9% usage rate). At plus-money, Stewart is a solid lock to win MVP as she's been healthy leading New York.