The 2026 annual WNBA Commissioner's Cup is underway!
The New York Liberty are the favorites (+260) to win the Cup. New York last won in 2023.
Sara Jane delivers the Commissioner's Cup schedule, odds, sleeper picks, and her final prediction.
The WNBA Commissioner's Cup is underway. Similar to the NBA's In-Season Tournament, 15 teams will compete for a trophy, prize money, and team charities. Let's take a look at the current odds, standings, and predictions for the 2026 Commissioner's Cup.
(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
It's the sixth annual Commissioner's Cup, and the stakes are high. Set to run June 1 through June 17, it features 49 games that count toward the regular-season record. The top teams from the Eastern and Western Conferences will advance to the championship game on June 30.
What's exactly on the line? Cash, cash, and more cash. Plus, a charitable donation is selected by each team. The Commissioner's Cup winners will receive $3,000 in donations, while the Cup losers will receive $1,000 in donations. In addition, the Championship winner will collect $10,000 in donations, and the runner-up will get $5,000. As a whole, the WNBA will donate more than $200,000 to team charities.
15 teams will compete for a prize pool of $500,000, a trophy, and a bit of in-season motivation as the Summer springs upon us. Let's take a look at the past winners, standings, current odds, and my best prediction of who will win the 2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup.
The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces opened as favorites and remain the front-runners on FanDuel. Will they emerge as the top two teams, or will another team ascend?
I'm a little surprised that the
New York Liberty
are the favorites to win it all. While standings reset for the Cup from June 1-17, there's no doubt that they've struggled this season. Despite a 6-4 overall record, New York has suffered losses to the Portland Fire (twice), Golden State Valkyries, and Dallas Wings.
New York, of course, has not been at full strength. Leonie Fiebich returned to Brooklyn, but Satou Sabally is limited to a minutes restriction. In addition, Sabrina Ionescu has played just one regular-season game due to an ankle injury. While she remains day-to-day, perhaps she will lace up on Saturday against the Indiana Fever.
Undefeated in Cup standings, the Liberty delivered a much-needed win over former head coach Sandy Brondello and the Toronto Tempo, 97-82.
The Liberty Last Won the WNBA Commissioner's Cup in 2023
With the offense firing on all cylinders, New York shot 46% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc thanks to Jonquel Jones' 22-point, 17-rebound performance. An all-around effort from the Liberty, every starter finished with points in double figures, and Satou Sabally recorded 12 points in 14 minutes off the bench.
Limiting Toronto to 82 points, the Tempo shot just 32% from three, were outrebounded, and the Liberty once held a 21-point lead.
New York doesn't have the toughest schedule ahead, as they will face the Connecticut Sun on June 8 and the Chicago Sky on June 17. Not only will the team face Caitlin Clark and the Fever on Saturday, but it will also play Angel Reese and the Atlanta Dream on June 11. They will the face a sneaky, young, talented Washington Mystics team on June 14.
Point differential matters, and New York holds the second-best PD (+15) in the East behind the Washington Mystics. While they are in a great position now, the Fever, Dream, and Mystics are the biggest threats.
New York has the versatility, experience, and length/size to challenge anyone in the East. Despite a top-five team in offensive rating (109), they've fallen to sixth in defensive rating (103.6). My biggest concern is health and continued chemistry among the head coaching staff and players.
Overall, they have the star power of Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Satou Sabally, and Sabrina Ionescu (if healthy). On paper, this team looks unbeatable. In 2026, they boast the second-best NET rating (8.6) and lead the WNBA in 3-pointers made per game (10.5) and free-throw percentage (86.8%). Plus, they are among the upper-tier teams in rebounds (27.3 RPG), assists (21.9), and 3-point percentage (36.8%).
Las Vegas Aces (+330 FanDuel)
It's no surprise that the defending champion
Las Vegas Aces
are the second-favorites to win the 2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup. Currently, they are priced at +330 on FanDuel.
The last time the Aces won the Cup in 2023, they won the title that same year against the Liberty. The regular season was off to a rocky start, but the Aces sit third in the standings with a 6-3 record.
The Aces have won two of their last three games against the Valkyries and Sparks, and the defense has improved immensely.
Las Vegas is headlined by four-time MVP A'ja Wilson, who's putting up 24.8 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.6 blocks through nine games. As if the Aces didn't have enough star power with Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young, they added Chennedy Carter in free agency (17.5 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.3 steals).
My only concern is Carter, who was ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Sparks. She took a hard fall against Dallas and injured her left leg, but her availability is up in the air. Additionally, Jackie Young has been struggling, understandably so, but she rebounded with 23 points, seven rebounds, and nine assists against Golden State.
The Aces Last Won the WNBA Commissioner's Cup in 2022
If Carter were to miss an extended period of time, it's Jewell Loyd's time to shine, who has underperformed off the bench this season. Averaging 7.3 points in 27.3 minutes, Loyd is shooting just 32.1% from the field and 27.5% from beyond the arc. Up next would be Kierstan Bell, who's scored just six points in six games.
The Aces are 1-0 in the Commissioner's Cup standings, but the 79-69 victory over the Sparks was a bit worrisome. Yes, the defense limited the Sparks to 31% shooting from the field and 26% from three. However, Kelsey Plum remains out for LA, its biggest scorer. While Wilson scored 25 of the Aces' 79 points, there was little production outside of Wilson, Gray, and Young.
Ahead, the Aces will face the Valkyries, Storm, Fire, Lynx, and Wings. They *could* and *should* win over Seattle and Portland, but we all know what the Fire have been doing this season. Paige Bueckers and the Wings took care of business on the road in Vegas, signaling the Aces have a tough road ahead.
Not to mention the Aces are in a stacked Western Conference that includes the Lynx, Wings, Valkyries, and Mercury. Currently, the Lynx lead the pack with a +37 point differential, followed by the Wings with a +23 point differential. Posting a +10 point differential, the Aces would have to truly not only win games, but make up ground in the margins. That's tough to do if Carter remains out.
Despite their record, the Aces rank sixth in offensive rating (108.9), but have struggled on the defensive end. If Las Vegas is going to win the Cup, it will have to rely on star power, rebounding strength, rim protection, and the fact that the team is ranked third in scoring (89.7 PPG). It's not impossible, but they have a tough road ahead with health questions.
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Sleepers
Dallas Wings (+1200)
This isn't really a true sleeper pick, but I like the
Dallas Wings
to win the Cup priced at +1200 odds. This is a team that's won just 19 games over the last two seasons and enters a new era under Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd.
6-3 on the season, I'm impressed with what head coach Jose Fernandez has done with this roster despite rotation concerns. Azzi Fudd is now in the starting lineup, and this is a team that knocked off the Fever and Liberty on the road. Plus, they beat the Aces 95-87 last week.
The Wings have already proven that they can beat the top teams, and they own the WNBA's best offensive rating (111.3). A top-four team defensively, this is a Dallas team that puts up 87.8 points per game and boasts a 35.3% 3-point rate.
The only downside is that 6'6" Awak Kueir is set to be evaluated in a week due to a right wrist injury. In the coming weeks, Dallas will face the Sparks, Lynx, Mercury, Aces, and Valkyries. It's not a forgiving schedule, and the Wings already lost to the Lynx, 90-86.
The Wings are led by Paige Bueckers (18.3 points), Arike Ogunbowale (13.1 points), Jessica Shepard (12.6 points), and Azzi Fudd (12.1 points). Without Kuier, Alanna Smith will have to step up, though she's had an underwhelming season and is recovering from a broken nose. With the way Azzi Fudd is playing, along with Shepard's triple-doubles, Dallas is one of the hottest teams in the WNBA right now.
If the Wings want to win, it will come down to their main stars, defense, health, and the right rotations. Plus, Alanna Smith will need to hold down the frontcourt next to Shepard, which has been an area of weakness for Dallas all season. As mentioned before, Dallas is in a tough Western Conference.
Indiana Fever (+500)
Oddsmakers don't view the Indiana Fever as favorites to win the Commissioner's Cup, and they're priced at +500. Winners in 2025, no team has yet to repeat as Cup champions: Will the Fever be the first?
At 5-4 on the season, it's been a rocky start for the Fever, who were beaten by the Wings, Mystics, Fire, and Valkyries this season. Tonight, they bounced back from a 100-84 loss to Portland and trounced the Atlanta Dream 83-71.
This was a huge win for the Fever, who are undefeated in the Cup standings and boast the third-best point differential in the East (+12). The good news is that
Caitlin Clark
is back and healthy, as she delivered a 17-point, seven-rebound, and eight-assist performance against Atlanta on Thursday. Both Sophie Cunningham and Raven Johnson came alive off the bench, and Kelsey Mitchell continues to put up MVP numbers.
The Indiana Fever Won the WNBA Commissioner's Cup in 2025
Considered one of the craftiest guards in the WNBA, Mitchell is a threat downhill and in transition, especially from three. In eight games, she's averaging 20.6 points, while shooting 45.6% from the field and 34.1% from three. Consistent as they come, Mitchell has now scored 20+ points in five of eight games on the season.
If the Fever can stay healthy, I think they have a shot here. Yes, they face the Liberty and Mystics, but they will have an opportunity to gain ground against an ailing Sky and Tempo team. Plus, on June 13, they face the Connecticut Sun, who have just two wins on the season.
Not only am I thinking of wins here, but I'm also thinking of point differential. Not only do the Sky (-6.1) and Sun (-16) own two of the WNBA's worst NET ratings, but they also own two of the worst point differentials in the WNBA. Chicago posts a -5.1 point differential, while Connecticut is at the bottom of the standings with a -12.9 point differential. Through Cup games, they combine for a -35 margin.
I understand tensions can seem high on the outside, but the Fever rank seventh in offense (108.4) and defensive rating (103.7). If they are going to win the Cup, Clark needs to stay healthy, and Indiana will rely on Clark, Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, and the bench. This team ranks first in points per game (91.8), along with free throws made (20.6), and atop the stats book in steals (6.9), 3-pointers made (8.9), and third in assists (22.1).
The defense showed improvements as Indiana held Atlanta to just 71 points on 34% shooting from the field and 29% from three. Maybe that loss against the Fire ignited the motivation they needed to win this all. A viable and reasonable candidate to make it out of the East, the Fever can go the distance. The question remains: Can they beat the best teams from a stacked Western Conference?
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