2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup: Updated Odds, Favorites, Sleepers & Predictions

The 2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup is underway, and we are seven days into the tournament. Let's take a look at the updated odds, the favorite, sleeper picks, and my best predictions.

(Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

15 teams are competing for a $500,000 prize pool, a Cup trophy, and a charitable donation to local communities. Similar to the NBA Play-In Tournament, the stakes are high. Every game matters, along with point differential.

Commissioner's Cup games will run through June 17, and the championship will take place on June 30. In my previous article, the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces were the opening favorites. That has not changed, as the Liberty remain the favorites (+175) on FanDuel to win the tournament. Next up is the Aces (+290).

The Minnesota Lynx hold steady with the third-best odds (+390), while the Dream (+750) and Dallas Wings (+950) remain in the conversation. After the Indiana Fever (+1400), there's a massive drop-off and difference in odds between the top six teams and the Washington Mystics.

Will the Liberty hold the lead or will another team come forward? Let's take a look at the updated 2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup standings, betting odds, favorites, sleepers, and my best predictions.

Get ready for the WNBA action and find more sports and NBA betting promotions by viewing a list of the best sports betting offers here compiled by Ballislife Bets.

Past WNBA Commissioner's Cup Winners

*Stats provided by WNBA.com*

2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Standings

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

*Standings updated June 7 at 10:30 p.m. EST*

2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Odds: Updated (FanDuel)

• New York Liberty: +175
• Las Vegas Aces: +290
• Minnesota Lynx: +390
• Atlanta Dream: +750
• Dallas Wings: +950
• Indiana Fever: +1400
• Washington Mystics: +8000
• Phoenix Mercury: +8000
• Toronto Tempo: +17500
• Chicago Sky: +22500
• Golden State Valkyries: +25000
• Los Angeles Sparks: +75000
• Connecticut Sun: +75000
• Portland Fire: +75000
• Seattle Storm: +75000

*Standings updated June 7 at 10:30 p.m. EST*

The Favorites

New York Liberty (+175 FanDuel)

No surprise here. The Liberty remains the favorite to win the 2026 Commissioner's Cup. Priced at +240 just one week ago, oddsmakers view them as the top dogs on FanDuel.

New  York owns the WNBA's fourth-best record at 7-4 and sits atop the Eastern Conference with a 2-0 record in the Cup standings. New York has more overall Cup wins than the Atlanta Dream, but boasts the second-best point differential (+23).

Through the tournament, New York spoiled Sandy Brondello's New York homecoming with a 97-82 victory over the Toronto Tempo. Still, without star Sabrina Ionescu, New York had a balanced scoring effort led by Jonquel Jones's 22-point, 17-rebound performance.

The Liberty then ousted Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever, 83-75. A relatively low-scoring affair, New York's defense held Clark to just 10 points, while the Fever shot 29-of-72 (40%) from the field. Although New York put up 83 points, they made 33-of-40 shots from the free-throw line. While defeating the Fever is no easy task, there wasn't much offensive output outside of Breanna Stewart's 30 points.

Yes, you read that correctly. 40 free-throw attempts.

Are the Liberty Overvalued?

I do think it will come down to the Liberty and Dream in the East, although anything can happen. New York can make up ground on Monday against a Connecticut Sun team that they beat by 31 points in the season opener. From there, they face the Dream in a must-win matchup, followed by the Washington Mystics, who sent the Liberty to overtime last month. The last game of the tournament will come against the Chicago Sky, who are going through the toughest of times.

That game, above all, might be the most important.

Satou Sabally is back in action for New York and is slowly ramping up her minutes. Missing is Sabrina Ionescu, who's now recovering from a back injury. While New York's roster is stacked and full of size/length, the Liberty miss Ionescu's 3-point prowess, scoring, and facilitating.

New York's potential is high, and they are getting healthier at the right time. Over the past two games, they posted a +11.5 point differential and have been one of the top teams on defense.

Las Vegas Aces (+290 FanDuel)

The Aces are tied with the Dream and Wings for the second-best record in the WNBA at 7-3. Furthermore, they are tied with the Wings for the second-best Commissioner's Cup record at 2-0, but trail them with a +15 point differential.

Since June 1, the Aces delivered crucial wins over the Sparks, 79-69, thanks to A'ja Wilson's 25-point, 15-rebound performance. In what was a defensive masterclass, the Sparks shot just 31% from the field and 26% from three. A low-scoring affair, Jackie Young came alive for Las Vegas with 16 points.

In a rematch against Natalie Nakase and the Golden State Valkyries, the Aces won 84-79. Although that was just a five-point victory, the Aces' defense showed out again. Shooting a proficient 13-of-30 from beyond the arc, Wilson and Young combined for 55 points.

I do believe the health of Sixth Player of the Year candidate, Chennedy Carter, will be crucial, who has missed two straight games with a left leg injury. In 2026, Carter is averaging 17.5 points per game in her first season back in the WNBA with the Aces.

The Aces also have a tough schedule ahead. They face the Seattle Storm and Portland Fire, which are both winnable matchups. Yet to face either team, those could be two crucial matchups in terms of wins and point differential. After that, the real test comes when the Aces will play the Lynx, Wings, and Mercury.

The Lynx own the best Cup record and point differential (+57) in the West, and the Aces would have to beat at least the Lynx and gain some serious point margin.

Minnesota Lynx (+390 FanDuel)

No one expected the Lynx to be this good. As mentioned previously, they own the WNBA's best record at 9-2 and lead the Western Conference Cup standings with a 3-0 record and a +57-point differential.

It's hard to see any other team coming out of the West at this point. The Lynx have won seven straight games and gained Cup victories over the Valkyries, 87-84, and the Storm, 88-68. Their biggest Cup win came against the Mercury by 34 points.

It was as dominant as a team could get, with the Lynx shooting 64% from the field and 59% from three.

The Lynx boast the No. 1 defensive rating (97.1) in the WNBA and held the Storm to just 68 points while shooting 35% from the field. Not to mention they stalled the Mercury offense, including Alyssa Thomas, who scored just six points.

Are the Books Sleeping on Minnesota?

The Olivia Miles era is here, and we are all here for it. The leading Rookie of the Year, Miles, has exceeded expectations as a facilitator, leader, scorer, shot creator, and so much more. In her first WNBA season, Miles is putting up near MVP-esque numbers with 17.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 1.5 steals.

It turns out losing Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard in free agency wasn't a total loss. And Napheesa Collier can continue to rehab from injury with minimal worry. Signing Natasha Howard was one of the most brilliant moves after the CBA agreement. Holding down the frontcourt, Howard has been incredibly efficient on both ends of the court, averaging 17.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.5 steals.

In addition, Courtney Williams is thriving in her natural position at shooting guard, and players such as Nia Coffey (43.8%) and Maya Caldwell (40.7%) have been snipers beyond the arc. Cheryl Reeve is a championship coach, and the core four of Miles, Williams, Howard, and Kayla McBride have been lethal.

I do believe the Lynx have great value here, but they have a tough road ahead with matchups against the Wings and Aces. They could further improve their point differential against the Fire and Sparks. Minnesota has excellent position, but anything could change this week.

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Sleepers

Atlanta Dream (+750 FanDuel)

I feel like no one is talking about the Atlanta Dream in terms of Commissioner's Cup odds. They are tied for the second-best record in the WNBA at 7-3 and are 2-1 in the Eastern Cup standings. They lead the pack with a +36 point differential.

+750 is incredible value, especially for a team that trails the Liberty by half a game. Yes, the Dream lost to the Fever 83-71, and the offense completely stalled. Atlanta later made up for it with a dominant 109-77 victory over Sonia Citron and the Washington Mystics.

This is the Dream team that I envisioned when free agency came around, and when they traded for Angel Reese. Mind you, they are doing all this without Brionna Jones.

Scoring a season-high 109 points was a statement. The Dream offense has been cold at times, but it was flowing against Washington. Not only did five players score in double figures, but the Dream made it to the free-throw line 41 times!

13-of-52 from 3-point range, Angel Reese finished with 18 points and 17 rebounds, while Rhyne Howard produced 19 points. Atlanta has depth, which is a crucial reason why this team can win it all. After all, their defense speaks for itself as Atlanta owns the second-best defensive rating (100.3) in the WNBA.

The Dream could gain ground in the points margin and wins column against the Sky next. But the deciding factor could come against the New York Liberty on June 11. After that, Atlanta will face the Tempo and Fever.

Dallas Wings (+950 FanDuel)

All along, my sleeper pick has been the Dallas Wings. This is a team led by Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale, and it further strengthened its roster by drafting Azzi Fudd No. 1 overall.

Dallas has just 19 wins over the past two seasons and holds a 7-3 record through 10 games and a Western Conference Cup record of 2-0. The Wings are just 1.5 games behind the Lynx and boast a +31 point differential.

Jessica Shepard has been monstrous for the Wings in the frontcourt, and we saw Dallas pick up crucial victories over the Sparks and Storm. We are not seeing Ogunbowale turn into the scorer she's always been. Not to mention, Bueckers tallied a career-best 14 assists against Los Angeles.

Dallas has a ton of versatility, hence why they rank No. 1 in offensive rating. Odyssey Sims went down with an injury, and Awak Kuier is already missing time with a wrist injury. Health here is a major concern.

The most important Cup game lies ahead, where Dallas will face the Lynx on the road. Minnesota last beat Dallas 90-86, and I'm expecting this game to be much closer.  It's a tough road ahead for the Wings, who will also play the Aces, Mercury, and Valkyries.

I can see why the odds are so long here, given the Wings' strength of schedule. They are scoring in bunches and against anyone, but this is indeed a tough calendar ahead.

2026 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Prediction

• My original prediction was for the Indiana Fever or the Dallas Wings to win it all. I'm still all-in on Dallas, but I like the Lynx here at +390 odds. They are hot right now, and until someone slows their roll, this is great value.