2026 WNBA MVP Odds & Predictions: Caitlin Clark Favored, Can She Win Her First?

The 2026 WNBA season is right around the corner, and Ballislife Bets is breaking down player awards. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is the highest individual honor that a player can receive over the course of a season. Just nine days out from tipoff, I'll break down the MVP favorites, sleepers, and my best prediction for the 2026 season. That includes A'ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark, and more.

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It wasn't too long ago that Las Vegas Aces star A'ja Wilson and Indiana Fever's Caitlin Clark led the field with +260 odds each to win MVP. Since the start of training camp, Clark has regained a small lead over Wilson. Just last week, Wilson held the lead.

Wilson is the first player in WNBA history to win four MVPs. In fact, she earned MVP honors over the last two seasons and three since 2022. At just 29 years old, Wilson is already considered one of the most decorated players in league history. While not unanimous, Wilson received 51 of 72 first-place MVP votes in 2025. Furthermore, Napheesa Collier finished with 21 second-place votes, and Alyssa Thomas finished third.

Clark, 24, has yet to win an MVP and has played just 53 career games with the Indiana Fever. Hampered by groin and hamstring injuries, Clark played just 13 games in 2025. Back and fully healthy, oddsmakers have her as a top candidate to win the award in 2026.

Caitlin Clark, A'ja Wilson Lead 2026 WNBA MVP Race

While Wilson and Clark lead the pack, Napheesa Collier (Minnesota Lynx), Breanna Stewart (New York Liberty), Sabrina Ionescu (New York Liberty), Allisha Gray (Atlanta Dream), and Alyssa Thomas (Phoenix Mercury) are all within the top seven to win MVP on FanDuel. However, there's a large gap in odds after Clark and Wilson.

Since 2020, A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart have dominated the MVP race. If we truly count Elena Delle Donne as a forward, the last guard to win Most Valuable Player was Diana Taurasi in 2009. Since 2008, Lauren Jackson, Tamika Catchings, Tina Charles, Candace Parker, Maya Moore, Delle Donne, Nneka Ogwumike, Jonquel Jones, and Sylvia Fowles have been named MVPs.

Since 1997, only five guards have won the award. Historically, forwards and centers have dominated the award. Is this the year it flips? Prominent guards such as Paige Bueckers and Clark have entered the league.

Let's take a look at the 2026 WNBA MVP odds, favorites, long shots, and my predictions. Wilson is the favorite, but can someone else win it this year? Unlike Rookie of the Year, team success plays a significant role in MVP, along with individual stats.

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2026 WNBA MVP Betting Odds Full Field (FanDuel)

Past WNBA MVP Award Winners

The Favorites

Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever: +250

Just a few days ago, A'ja Wilson was the favorite to win MVP. Now, it has shifted back to Caitlin Clark. As mentioned previously, Clark returns to the court after playing just 13 games in 2025.

Earning WNBA Rookie of the Year honors in 2024, she averaged 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.3 steals, while shooting 41.7% from the field, 34.4% from beyond the arc, and 90.6% from the free-throw line. Her rookie campaign was historic as she set several records.

With the Indiana Fever, Clark had a turbulent start, but nonetheless finished the season strong. Having ranked second in minutes per game (35.4), the former Iowa set an assists record with 337. Cashing in 122 3-pointers, she recorded 14 double-doubles and two triple-doubles. After the Olympic break, Clark was unstoppable, averaging 23.1 points per game.

In addition, Clark set the WNBA rookie scoring record with 769 points. She may be a point guard; however, Clark impacts the box score in various ways. She's not just a point guard who shoots logo threes—she pushes the pace in transition, is an elite passer, and has size that impacts the glass.

Can Caitlin Clark Win Her First WNBA MVP Award?

Back and healthy, Clark and the Fever are expected to be top contenders. The Fever has the third-best odds (+550) to win the 2026 Championship and was just one victory away from a finals appearance in 2025. Let's be honest, this is a team that took the Aces to a Game 5 overtime in the semifinals without Clark, Aari McDonald, Sophie Cunningham, and Syd Colson. Since they've retained their core of Clark, Aliyah Boston, Lexie Hull, and Cunningham, and also added Monique Billings, Myisha Hines-Allen, Tyasha Harris, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough through free agency.

Perhaps the steal of the draft was drafting Raven Johnson from South Carolina at No. 10 overall.

Last season, the Fever ranked No. 3 in offensive rating (106.2) and ranked fourth in effective field goal percentage (51.7%). Now, Indiana gets its star player back, plus reinforcements through free agency and the draft. Hypothetically, the Fever should be a top contender this year.

Clark has looked flawless in preseason action, although she left early during last week's game against Paige Bueckers in the Dallas Wings.

Overall, Clark's shots have been crisp, shooting 45% from the field, 45.5% from three, and 89.5% from the charity stripe. Through three preseason games, she's tallied 13.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and four assists in just 15 minutes of action.

In Saturday's 105-57 victory over the Nigeria National Team on Saturday, Clark wasn't the leading scorer. However, it's just preseason. Clark's shot and passing look elite as she's fully healthy. While preseason performance is likely driving the current odds, we can't count out Clark as an MVP favorite this season. Heading into the season, she has a 28.57% implied chance to win MVP.

A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces: +270

Not too much surprise, A'ja Wilson has the second-best odds (+270) to win the MVP award once again. As mentioned previously, she has the most in WNBA history with four. With the latest MVP, Wilson passed Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie, and Sheryl Swoopes, who all have three.

Wilson notably showed up to Aces media day with red hair, sporting a Jean Grey theme. That said, Las Vegas has (another) target on its back as they seek back-to-back championships for the second time in franchise history.

It's no secret the Aces got off to a 5-6 start and suffered a mid-season crisis, struggling to stay above .500.  They endured a 53-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx, which eventually turned into a 17-game win streak. Thanks to Wilson, the Aces somehow turned their season around and ended up in the playoffs. By October, they were WNBA Champions for the third time in franchise history.

Can A'ja Wilson Win Her Fifth WNBA MVP?

This is a playoff-caliber team that retained head coach Becky Hammon, Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd,  Jackie Young, NaLyssa Smith, Dana Evans, Kierstan Bell, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus under the new CBA. Plus, they added Chennedy Carter, a scoring bucket, in free agency.

In 2025, Wilson averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 2.3 blocks, shooting 50.5% from the field, 42.4% from three, and 85.5% from the 3-point line. Wilson is one of the most elite two-way players, and there are very few players who can stop her on the offensive end. Now that she's expanded her 3-point shot—look out.

The Aces have the roster to contend as a top team this season, and I'm simply not fading Wilson in her prime. She's yet to play in a preseason game and has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup against the Japan National Team. She signed a multi-year supermax deal with the Aces for a reason. Expect Wilson to continue her dominance this season.

Sleeper

Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix Mercury: +2000

My 2026 WNBA MVP sleeper pick this year is Alyssa Thomas of the Phoenix Mercury. At +2000 odds, Thomas has a 4.76% implied chance to win it this year.

Thomas recently re-signed with the Mercury and has been in WNBA discussions for several years. It's truly head-scratching how the odds are this high.

Thomas finished third in MVP voting in 2025 behind Wilson and Collier. That said, she earned 3 first-place votes, 9 second-place votes, 59 third-place votes, and 1 fourth-place vote. Overall, she earned 391 total points.

Thomas spent the majority of her career with the Connecticut Sun and has now finished in the top five for MVP voting for four straight seasons. In 2023, she finished second behind Breanna Stewart, and it was considered one of the tightest MVP races in history. Wilson finished third that season.

Can AT Win Her First WNBA MVP Award?

I fully expect Thomas to be back in MVP conversations this season. In 2025, she averaged 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 9.2 assists, and 1.6 steals in 39 games for Nate Tibbetts. They don't call her the "engine" for nothing—Thomas is one of the most lethal players in transition and when attacking downhill. Her strength, IQ, and ability to run the offense and facilitate are second to none. Plus, she's one of the most elite two-way players in the WNBA.

The Mercury made the Finals last season, but there are several question marks heading into 2026. Call them the "comeback kids", but they hold the seventh-best odds (+2000) to win the WNBA title. Above them are the Liberty, Aces, Fever, Dream, Lynx, and Sparks. Oddsmakers don't view the Mercury as title favorites, so that's why Thomas is a long shot (for now).

Phoenix re-signed both Thomas and Copper, Sami Whitcomb, Natasha Mack, and DeWanna Bonner in free agency. However, they lost Satou Sabally to New York in free agency, along with several others in the expansion draft. Monique Akoa Makani is the guard of the future, but there are several question marks on this team. I think they will make the playoffs, but the Liberty, Aces, Dream, and Fever are top dogs.

2026 WNBA MVP Prediction

A'ja Wilson

• It's truly hard to fade Wilson at this point in her career. The Aces are expected to contend, and Wilson does have some help, especially with the signing of Chennedy Carter. She's won several MVPs with several core players, and she averaged a career-high 1.5 3-point attempts per game last season. A two-way menace, Wilson has averaged a double-double for the last two seasons and has shot over 50% from the field in four consecutive seasons. I think Clark will be up there, but I also know this Aces team is just as strong as years past. If you bet $10 on Wilson to win MVP, the payout would be $37.