2026 WNBA MVP Odds & Predictions: Is Caitlin Clark a Best Bet?

The 2026 WNBA season is more than halfway over while most teams have 13 to 15 games left. The standings are tight, but the MVP race appears to be one-sided. A'ja Wilson is favored among several sportsbooks, but Olivia Miles and Caitlin Clark have entered the conversation. Let's take a look at the current WNBA MVP odds and my predictions on who will win the award.

(Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)

In the beginning of May, Caitlin Clark was the favorite to win the 2026 WNBA MVP at +250. Next up was A'ja Wilson at +270 odds and Napheesa Collier (+850). Preseason, Olivia Miles wasn't on oddsmakers' radar to win MVP, and was tied with Azzi Fudd at +250 odds to win Rookie of the Year to open the season.

There's no question that A'ja Wilson is having a historic season and is on pace to possibly win her fifth WNBA MVP award. However, we can't discount both Clark and Miles, who are having spectacular seasons.

If you didn't know, the MVP is awarded to the best-performing player. In fact, winning is a major factor when it comes to the award. While that isn't a definite rule, MVP is heavily influenced by player performance and their impact on winning and team record.

A'ja Wilson Leads MVP Race. Olivia Miles, Caitlin Clark Are in the Race

The Minnesota Lynx own the WNBA's best record at 25-6, while the Aces sit second in the standings at 21-9. With a 7-3 record over the last 10 games, the Indiana Fever are the current fifth seed at 19-11. Paige Bueckers MVP odds have lengthened, although the Dallas Wings are tied with the Fever for the fourth-seed at 19-11.

Other MVP candidates include Kelsey Mitchell (Indiana Fever), Breanna Stewart (New York Liberty), and Allisha Gray (Atlanta Dream).

Over the last five years, both Wilson and Stewart have dominated the MVP awards. Forwards/centers have headlined the MVP for quite some time, and the last guard to win the award was Diana Taurasi in 2009. No, I don't truly count Elena Delle Donne as a guard. It's possible that Miles or Clark could set a new trend in 2026.

Here are the current WNBA MVP odds as the 2026 season winds down. I'll break down the top three candidates and my best prediction who will win the award. Both A'ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark were named the WNBA Players of the Week on Tuesday.

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2026 WNBA MVP Betting Odds Full Field (FanDuel)

Past WNBA MVP Award Winners

The Favorite

A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces: -500

Wilson is the only player in WNBA history with four MVP awards. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the only player in NBA history with six MVP awards. Is there a possibility that Wilson could be headed for the most MVP awards in both men's and women's professional basketball?

She's the favorite at several sportsbooks at -500 odds for a reason. The Aces currently trail the Lynx 3.5 games back of the No. 1 seed with a 21-9 record. Winners of three of the last four, the Aces rank No. 2 in offensive rating (114), and No. 4 in NET rating (7.1) per the WNBA.

The Aces' leader in every sense, Wilson not only leads the team in scoring and on the boards, but is averaging a near double-double on the season. Through 28 games, she's posting 26.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists (career-high), 1.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks.

Wilson can do it all: Post-up, defend, and is a high-scoring, efficient player. Not to mention, she has incredible strength and size for a 6-foot-4 player. Her ability to hit a fadeaway shot at the left block is nearly automatic.

A product of South Carolina, Wilson has far expanded her game out to the 3-point range in her ninth season. In fact, she's shooting an efficient career-high 53.7% from the field and 44.6% from beyond the arc this season. Not only can Wilson move like a guard, but she's emerged as a legitimate 3-point threat who can space the floor.

When it comes to MVP, I look at their two-way impact, and Wilson is just as dominant on both sides of the ball. A three-time WNBA Defensive Player of the Year, Wilson additionally has the second-best odds (+320) to win the DPOY award on FanDuel. She leads the WNBA in blocks (56), and boasts a NET rating of 13.7.

Could A'ja Wilson Win her Fifth MVP?

Not only does Wilson lead the WNBA in scoring, she's posting the second-best +/- of 9.1 behind Collier. In addition, she's posted 15 double-doubles on the season, good for third-most behind Angel Reese and Jessica Shepard.

In fact, Wilson has 23 games scoring 20+ points and 10 30+ point games this season. Wilson hasn't missed much time this season, but the Aces are 1-2 without Wilson, including the Commissioner's Cup final loss against the Liberty. On July 5, the Fever dominated the Aces, 84-68 without Wilson.

To showcase her dominance, the Aces are 8-2 when Wilson scores 30+ points, 12-3 when she records a double-double, and 18-5 when A'ja scores at least 20 points. Today she earns her third Western Conference WNBA Player of the Week award, and her 31st overall. This week, she's averaged 32.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game with the Aces.

Why A'ja Wilson is the WNBA MVP Favorite

We've seen the stats: Wilson has put up some monstrous numbers this season which includes a season-high 45 points against the Connecticut Sun. Plus, we've seen her at a 33.1% usage rate, which is the highest of her career. Plus, she's averaging 29.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 2.5 blocks in August, while shooting 55.3% from the field and 100% from 3-point range.

It's rare to find such an efficient volume shooter in the WNBA (19 FGA in August) who's over six feet.

With Wilson on the court, the Aces boast a +14.3 net rating.  As you can see, her impact on the team's success is monumental.

A'ja Wilson is a strong MVP candidate once again, and is fresh off a 23-point performance and a career-high +38 against the Atlanta Dream.

Runners-Up

Olivia Miles, Minnesota Lynx: +700

We knew Olivia Miles could hoop back in her Notre Dame and TCU days in college. She was a leading Rookie of the Year candidate to start the 2026 WNBA season alongside Azzi Fudd.

No one expected Miles to rank second in MVP odds (+700). Minnesota threw Miles to the Wolves, especially since Napheesa Collier missed a bulk of the season. Now the Lynx lead the standings with a 25-6 record.

Miles can't be ignored here. Yes, there is a gap between Wilson and Miles, but the Lynx boast the best point differential in the league (+9.3), and rank among the top 3 in offensive rating (113.8) and defensive rating (102.7). With Miles as the newest franchise face, the Lynx own the WNBA's best NET rating (11.1).

She might be the best rookie ever—one that possesses elite court vision and IQ. But don't sleep on Miles, she's a fantastic shot creator and knows how to beat her defender downhill. Now we've seen her make passes between the legs. I don't know any word to describe Miles other than "generational."

Not to mention Miles leads all WNBA rookies with 19.7 points per game, in addition to 4.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.3 steals. In 29 games, she's shooting 50.2% from the field, 38% from three, and 87.5% from the line.

Is Olivia Miles the Best WNBA Rookie Ever?

Miles boasts a 26.9% usage rate in her first season, an indication that head coach Cheryl Reeve has given her the keys to the team.

I thought her numbers would decrease once Collier returned, but that hasn't been the case. Even with Collier in the lineup, Miles delivered  28 points, six assists, and four rebounds, as the Lynx defeated the Fever 108-100. This season as a whole, the Lynx are +14 with Miles on the court.

Named a 2026 WNBA All-Star in her first season, Miles is a hungry player. She plays winning basketball and has delivered three 30+ point games on the season. That doesn't include her six 25+ point games, 12 20+ point games, and two double-doubles.

In fact, the Lynx post an 11-1 record when Miles scores 20+ points and a perfect 3-0 when Miles has soared over 30 points. Considered an elite passer, Minnesota is 8-1 when she dishes out 7+ assists, and 6-1 when Miles records over 8+ assists.

To me, Miles has cemented herself as the No. 2 MVP candidate here, as she is an efficient high-volume scorer. She's the fastest player in WNBA history to get to 400 points, 100 rebounds, and 100 assists, per ESPN.

Miles opened the season at +12500 odds to win MVP, now she's second in the race at +700. Plus, she's been brilliant, averaging 22.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game over the last five. She's an elite two-way player and is playing at such a high level for a rookie.

The only rookie to win MVP in WNBA history is Candace Parker. Can Miles join her? The Lynx have 13 games remaining, but have arguably the toughest schedule down the stretch.

Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever: +1400

Perhaps we saved the best for last. Caitlin Clark is healthy and back in action. She was once the leading MVP front-runner, but has now moved into third ahead of Paige Bueckers and her Fever teammate, Kelsey Mitchell.

Clark was hampered by injuries last season, limiting her to 13 games in 2026, she's played 26 games and named a starter in all of them. Clark isn't the sole reason for the Fever's success, they have crucial players such as Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. However, this is a team that ranks fifth in the WNBA with a 19-11 record.

Through 26 games, Clark is averaging a career-high 21.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, while shooting 44.6% from the field and 34.9% from beyond the arc. Not only are Clark's all-around shooting percentages up, but she's a walking double-double. In 2026, she's recorded eight double-doubles including one triple-double on the season.

Although Clark's defense can improve, she's been on a tear as of late, including a career-high 45-point, 10-assist night against the Seattle Storm. Scoring 25+ points in three of the last four games, Clark is posting averages of 24.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 9.0 assists, while shooting over 50% from the field and nearly 40% from three over the last five games.

Should Caitlin Clark Be Considered for MVP?

Clark is certainly in the MVP race given her ability to score at a high, yet efficient rate, a factor that differed from last season. Plus, her facilitating has been outstanding, tallying 20 assists over the last two games and an average of 9.5 dimes over the last four games.

What may hurt Clark is the fact that the Fever are 4-0 without her and 15-11 with her, which is surprising in itself. Overall the Fever boast a +3.8 offensive rating with Clark on the floor.

Clark is boasting a career-high 32% usage rate under head coach Stephanie White, indicating her impact on winning. And it's no secret Clark has a lot of mouths to feed. Indiana is 6-2 when Clark records a double-double and 10-4 when she tallies 8+ assists. In fact, the Fever are 9-2 when Clark dishes out at least nine dimes.

Her success is clear and so is her ability to impact the team. Now, that's not to say Kelsey Mitchell doesn't deserve MVP consideration, she's hooping. However, I will say that the Fever are 3-1 when Clark's scored 30+ points.

Clark has great value at +1400 odds, although the Fever have a tough schedule ahead with 14 games left. While she's considered a long-shot, we can't ignore her 2026 season. While many view Clark as solely a long-distance shooter, she's one of the best facilitators in the WNBA.

My Prediction

If you're betting on WNBA MVP, it is worth a shot to sprinkle half a unit on Olivia Miles and Caitlin Clark. One thing I wouldn't suggest is betting on A'ja Wilson. At -500 odds, the risk outweighs the reward.

With 13-15 games remaining, I have to take Wilson here for MVP. She's been dominant and the gap between her and Miles/Clark is massive. At this moment, it's very possible that Wilson could have the unanimous vote.

Her two-way presence and evolving 3-point shot puts her above every candidate. Plus, the Aces are a top-tier team. Ultimately team record and seeding will matter.

Wilson boasts a +- of +254 this season and has finished negative just six times this season. She's consistently performing at a high level and is the clear front-runner. If she does win, it will be Wilson's fifth WNBA award.