2026 WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Today (Sept. 29): Liberty-Lynx, Fever-Aces & Caitlin Clark

The Game 1 scores were emphatic; tonight’s point spreads are anything but. Bettors must decide whether to trust what they saw Sunday or pay for the adjustments expected from two teams facing elimination.

Las Vegas shot 59 percent and beat Indiana 102-85, led by A’ja Wilson’s 38 points and 16 rebounds. The Fever now return to a building where they averaged 99.1 points during the regular season, but they have to solve the mistakes that handed the Aces 28 points off turnovers. In Minnesota, eighth-seeded New York delivered the other opening-day jolt: a 91-75 road win fueled by Breanna Stewart’s 34 points and 12 rebounds.

(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Two Favorites Face the Brink

Indiana can force a deciding game by protecting its home court. Minnesota must win in Brooklyn merely to get back to its own. Those circumstances make the prices fascinating: the Fever are a small favorite against the defending champions, while the Lynx remain favored despite losing the opener at home.

Both Game 1 winners earned their advantage. Las Vegas punished Indiana’s turnovers and finished with 100+ points for the 14th time this season. New York shot 52 percent from 3-point range, making 13 threes, while holding Minnesota to its second-lowest scoring output of the season. The losing teams have room to improve, but neither can count on the opponent simply disappearing.

The totals pose a separate challenge. The Aces and Fever produced 187 points, clearing tonight’s 183.5 despite Indiana scoring 11 below its season average. The Liberty and Lynx reached only 166 even with New York’s perimeter shooting.

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2026 WNBA Playoffs First Round Odds & Schedule for Tuesday, Sept. 29

WNBA Betting Odds For Tuesday, Sept. 29 (Odds courtesy FanDuel)

Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever

• Spread: Las Vegas +1.5 (-118) | Indiana -1.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Las Vegas (+105) | Indiana (-115)
• Total: O/U 183.5 (-110/-110)

Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty

• Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (-108) | New York +3.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Minnesota (-162) | New York (+132)
• Total: O/U 172.5 (-114/-106)

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The numbers leave little room to hide. Indiana can win and fail to cover. Minnesota can survive elimination and still leave its backers empty-handed. In Brooklyn, New York can lose a close game and cash a spread ticket after winning by double digits on Sunday.

Game 1 also showed why you shouldn't judge either total by season averages alone. Las Vegas found easy points when Indiana gave the ball away; New York needed an exceptional shooting afternoon to reach 91. How those chances change tonight matters as much as the urgency of either trailing team.

I have both sides and one player prop, as the following three wagers stand out as the best bets on the WNBA card (Odds via FanDuel):

Las Vegas Aces +1.5 over Indiana Fever (-118)

Indiana’s home scoring is the strongest argument against this pick. The Fever averaged 99.1 points there during the regular season, compared with 92.8 on the road, and their 96.0 overall average led the league. That said, Las Vegas arrives with a matchup answer Indiana failed to find in Game 1: Wilson went 15-for-19 from the field, while Jackie Young added 21 points and 10 assists in the 17-point shellacking.

The Aces do not need another 59 percent shooting night to stay within a possession. They need to keep Indiana working for its shots and limit the clean transition chances that fuel its offense. Las Vegas allowed 85.8 points per game during the regular season, sixth lowest in the league. Indiana scored 85 on Sunday, when Caitlin Clark went 6-for-18 and the Fever’s turnovers repeatedly sent the Aces the other way. Indiana's 17 turnovers tied for their fourth-highest this season.

The Spread Has Changed Sides

The Aces have now won and covered the last two meetings. They've also covered two of their last three visits to Indianapolis. During last year's championship run, the Aces were installed as an underdog one time; they went into Phoenix and won outright as a 1.5-point underdog, 90-88. Since coach Becky Hammon's arrival in 2022, the Aces are 5-2-1 as a playoff underdog.

Overall, through Game 1, Las Vegas has covered 11 of its last 18 while the Fever are a subpar 7-8 ATS since the start of August. And though the Fever deserve respect at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and a sharper offensive performance makes this a difficult ticket, asking the Aces to cover a dog number — even as small as +1.5 points — is much more attractive after seeing what they did on Sunday.

Liberty +3.5 over Lynx (-112)

New York’s 16-point win was more than a late run. Stewart's performance proved she has plenty of life left in her game, with 34 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists. More importantly, Leonie Fiebich added 16 points and eight rebounds as the key contributor. The Liberty won on Minnesota’s floor and now get a chance to close the series in Brooklyn, where they ranked third in the league in allowing just 81.7 PPG during the regular season, and could see 2021 MVP and 2024 Finals MVP Jonquel Jones live up to her regular season numbers (14.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG). And then there's Sabrina Ionescu, who is averaging 16.8 PPG and 3.0 3-pointers at home against the Fever during her career.

Sure, there is a real case for a Lynx response. Minnesota went 33-11 in the regular season, and New York made a shocking 13 threes at a 52 percent clip Sunday. Expecting that accuracy again would be aggressive. But New York does not need another 16-point win to cover +3.5. It can absorb a much better Minnesota performance and still keep the game inside this number at home, where the Liberty turned in a league seventh-best +4.3 net margin during the regular season.

Respect the Seed, Take the Points

New York’s season-long 19-27 ATS record warns against treating Game 1 as a guarantee. Minnesota has failed to cover its last six games, so neither team enters with a dominant spread record to brag about. More relevant to this price: the Liberty allowed 81.7 points per game at home during the regular season, compared with 91.1 away. Minnesota averaged 89.4 on the road.

Minnesota may well force Game 3. But I'd rather have +3.5 with the Liberty in New York, where they've covered 10 of their last 17. That coincides nicely with a Lynx team that has failed to cover its last three road games. During that three-game stretch, Minnesota was outscored by an average final score of 91.3 to 86.3. Even further, the Lynx are mired in a 1-3 ATS skid immediately after a home loss.

Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 Assists (-154)

Caitlin Clark had 10 assists Sunday despite Indiana scoring only 85 points. She averaged 8.3 during the regular season, so 8.5 is a slight demand. That said, Game 1 supplied the matchup evidence: even on a 6-for-18 shooting afternoon with six turnovers, she created enough made baskets for teammates to clear this number.

Las Vegas' defensive vulnerability for this prop is tied to volume. The Aces allowed 85.8 points per game during the season, yet Indiana’s home offense averaged 99.1. If the Fever match that home output, Clark will have far more chances to turn passes into assists than she did in the opener. Indiana also needs to reduce turnovers that end possessions before a shot can produce an assist. Easier said than done, as the Fever committed 15.1 turnovers at home, compared to their overall average of 14.3.

Better Fever Shots Will Reward the Passer

Clark can beat this number without a major scoring night of her own. Kelsey Mitchell averaged 24.7 points during the season, and Aliyah Boston scored 18 on Sunday despite Indiana’s uneven offense. Clark’s 10 assists in Game 1 showed that the Aces could disrupt her shooting and still leave a path for her passing to pay. Las Vegas allowed a league second-lowest 18.9 assists per game during the regular season, but saw a slight uptick to 19.9 on the road. The Aces allowed 20 at home on Sunday

The risk is clear: Las Vegas forced six Clark turnovers in the opener, and a repeat would cost Indiana valuable chances. With the Fever facing elimination at home, look for more completed possessions and enough teammate finishes for her to reach nine assists. Clark, who averages 8.1 APG against the Aces in her career, leads the league with 9.0 APG at home this season. Surprisingly, the third-year guard has only faced the Aces in Indianapolis three times, and in the last two meetings averaged 8.5 APG. With everything on the line, Clark — who is averaging 9.2 APG in her last five home games — will deliver the goods in Game 2.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez