2026 Women's NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: First Round Upsets

Upsets happen in the NCAA Tournament, women’s as well as the men’s bracket. They aren’t as common in the first round of the women’s March Madness bracket as the men’s. However, they do happen from time to time. Now, what makes a game an “upset” can be up to interpretation.

I’ve read somewhere that the NCAA doesn’t consider a game an upset unless the victor is seeded at least five spots lower than the losing team. So, a No. 12 seed beating a No. 5 would count, as would a No. 11 beating a No. 6. But No. 10-seeds beating No. 7s would get left out, as would 9-8 seed pairings.

(Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

However, I think the more widely accepted definition of an upset is simply when the winner is seeded lower than the loser. So, 10-seeds beating No. 7s and 9-seeds beating No. 8s would count. With that in mind, let’s talk about a few potential upsets in the first round of the Women’s NCAA Tournament.

March Madness is here and if you're looking for more NCAA basketball and sports betting promotions, we have gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here.

NCAA Tournament Upset Pick: No. 11 Richmond/Nebraska vs No. 6 Baylor Bears

• Spread: NA
• Moneyline: NA
• Total: NA

This may seem kind of harsh to say since we don’t know who the Bears will face, either No. 11 Richmond or No. 11 Nebraska. But I think either one could take down the Bears. Baylor opened the season with a nice win over then-No. 7 Duke (58-52), but didn’t really do much that could be called impressive after that. To be fair, the Bears did record a win over No. 10 Iowa State, but lost to the other five ranked teams they faced.

Baylor is a good offensive team, averaging 71.4 points per game (No. 76 in the country), and allowing just 60 (No. 76). It is one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country (No. 5), and it plays solid 3-point defense (No. 5, 25.8% allowed).

But both Richmond and Nebraska average more points per game and shoot better than the Bears (45.8% for Richmond, 47.6% for Nebraska, and 42.4% for the Bears). Richmond is also one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the country and had the fifth-best effective field goal rate (55%).

Nebraska’s is 53.9% (No. 13 in the country) and Baylor’s 48.7%.

March Madness First-Round Upset Pick

Richmond would have a better chance, as it has a stronger defense and can be deadly from 3-point range. But Nebraska has enough offense to handle the Bears, too.

• My Pick: Richmond ML/Nebraska Spread

I like Richmond to win outright because it can light up the Bears from 3-point range and build a lead the Bears can’t overcome. As for Nebraska, I’m a little less confident in its offense, but believe in it enough to take the points.

NCAA Tournament Upset Pick: No. 11 Rhode Island Rams vs. No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide

• Spread: Rhode Island +10.5 (-114) | Alabama -10.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Rhode Island +360 | Alabama -5000
• Total: O/U 118.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via FanDuel

Alabama got the job done by making the most of its decent offense (70.1 points per game) and effective defense (61.5 points allowed per game). The Crimson Tide shoot well from the perimeter (No. 36 in 3-pointers per game with 8.2) and aren't bad on the defensive boards (No. 93 i, 26.5 per game). However, they struggle on the offensive glass (No. 256 in the country, 10.5 per game).

Thrillzz

4.8/5

FREE $100K Pick’em Entry 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

Rhode Island is not as productive on offense (No. 144 in the country, 67.7 points per game). But the Rams will pull off an upset thanks to other parts of their game — defense and pace of play. The Rams rank No. 6 in the country, allowing 53.8 points per game, and play at an incredibly slow pace (No. 347).

March Madness First-Round Upset Pick

Rhode Island held 14 of its opponents to 50 points or fewer in its 28 wins. Was it the pace of play, or was it defense? Or was it a bit of both, and the Alabama offense is going to be in trouble once the game gets underway?

• My Pick: Rhode Island +10.5/ML

This one depends entirely on how confident you are in the Rams. I have no doubt they can bog down the Bama offense and turn this into a slow, slugfest they can win. But the Rams will not lose by more than 10 points.

NCAA Tournament Upset Pick: No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats

• Spread: James Madison +16.5 (-114) | Kentucky -16.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: James Madison +880 | Kentucky -1800
• Total: O/U 130.5 (-112/-108)

Odds via FanDuel

It is really easy to overlook a team like James Madison since it comes from a mid-major conference like the Sun Belt, despite the Dukes going 26-8 and winning the conference tournament. Why? Because fans are naturally predisposed towards teams from power conferences, especially an SEC brand name like Kentucky.

However, take a closer look at these two teams, and you can see how similar they are:

• James Madison—74.8 points per game, Kentucky—75.6
• James Madison- 61.1 points per game allowed, Kentucky—60.2
• James Madison—45% field goal percentage; Kentucky—44.7%.

Both are led by impressive veteran players. James Madison is led by senior guard Peyton McDaniel, who averages 18.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Fellow senior, forward Ahanti Barnes, lends a hand with 14.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. For Kentucky, it’s junior center Clara Strack with 17.1 points and 10.0 rebounds per game.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

March Madness Picks at Thrillzz 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

But what has me pulling for the Dukes is momentum and how both teams have been playing. James Madison has won its last 12 games and a conference tournament title. The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last six and eight of their last 14 games.

March Madness First-Round Upset Pick

Could the Wildcats get it together for the NCAA Tournament? Of course. Am I willing to bet on it? Absolutely not.

• My Pick: James Madison +16.5

I’d give the moneyline some serious thought (+880), because this is certainly a winnable game for the Dukes. But I’m taking the points, because the Wildcats are a good team. They just aren’t good enough to blow the Dukes out.