2026 World Baseball Classic Final Odds & Prediction: USA vs. Venezuela

Aaron Judge says the atmosphere of the World Baseball Classic is unlike anything he's experienced, even more exciting than the World Series.

Julio Rodriguez said winning the WBC would be more meaningful to him than winning the World Series.

(Photo by Daniel Shirey/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

That sentiment has made this WBC tournament the most watched and appreciated of any international baseball competition in history.

Tonight, members of Team Venezuela will try to win a title that would delight the citizens of that country.

For Team USA, a WBC title would fulfill expectations. The U.S. was the pre-tournament favorite. The roster is filled with former MVPs, Cy Young winners, and All-Stars. This is a team that survived a boneheaded mistake by its manager to get to the finals. Now, the U.S. needs to win, or this tourney will have been a failure.

Oddsmakers at BetMGM list the U.S. at -275 to win the final game, which will be seen tonight on FOX Sports at 8 p.m. ET. That means you can grab long odds on Venezuela (+220).

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U.S. -275 vs Venezuela in WBC Final

Here are game details for the 2026 World Baseball Classic final, with odds from DraftKings:

• Eduardo Rodriguez (VEN) vs Nolan McLean (USA), 8 p.m. ET on FOX
• Venezuela (+215) at USA (-275), in Miami
• Run Line: Venezuela +1.5 (+105), USA -1.5 (-130)
• Over/Under 8.5 Runs (-115/-105)

The Red-White-and-Blues are heavy favorites. Should they be? The odds would likely be shorter if the odds were based on the rosters. But sportsbooks base odds on the betting trends, and there's a lot of money coming in on the United States.

If you're a baseball bettor, don't let the odds fool you, and don't just bet based on patriotism. This game is a fantastic opportunity.

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World Baseball Classic Championship Game Preview

Let's start with the starters, of course. Neither of these starting pitchers has fared well in the tournament. Both have an ERA north of 9.00 in the WBC.

Tournament rules allow the starting pitchers to throw 95 pitches, but neither will approach that figure.

McLean has only made eight starts in the major leagues. Which means he has little history against the Venezuela lineup. Here are some matchup stats for Team USA vs Eduardo Rodriguez:

• Aaron Judge is 5-for-33 (.152) with 1 HR vs Eduardo Rodriguez
• Bobby Witt Jr. is 4-for-12 (.333) vs Eduardo Rodriguez
• Kyle Schwarber is 0-for-8 with 4 K's vs Eduardo Rodriguez
• Brice Turang is 4-for-7 (.571) vs Eduardo Rodriguez

As a left-hander, Rodriguez will cause USA manager Mark DeRosa to flip his lineup. That means we will likely see Byron Buxton and Alex Bregman and their RH bats.

WBC Betting Pick

• Venezuela +220 vs USA

A winning $100 bet would return $220, plus your stake.

The moneyline odds don't make a lot of sense based on how these teams have played in the tournament. This is a close matchup. But, odds are odds. The moneyline on the underdog is a nice play tonight, even if you want to toss $50 at it, for a $110 potential win.

World Baseball Classic Bullpen Availability

DeRosa would like to use his favored relievers in the roles he's assigned to them basically throughout the tournament: David Bednar in the seventh; Garrett Whitlock in the eighth; and Mason Miller in the ninth. But, for each of them it would be a third appearance in five days in March, what would normally be a time to slowly add pitches. Each of those pitchers has an employer, and that team will have a say in how much their pitcher can be used.

It's probable that Tyler Rogers or another relief pitcher, such as recently added Jeff Hoffman, will be called upon to record three outs.

McLean will likely be followed by Hoffman or Matthew Boyd. We may even see Logan Webb toe the rubber. This game will be a sort of "all hands on deck" situation for the USA pitching staff. But, this isn't like the World Series: we won't see Paul Skenes coming in to get an out. The managers hands are tied on usage.

How Venezuela's Bullpen Lines Up For the WBC Final

The Venezuela bullpen is more uncertain because of the unknown requirements of MLB teams. Only Luinder Avila is unavailable because of the 30-pitch rule. Because he threw 30+ pitches on Monday, he will not be able to pitch Tuesday night.

Manager Omar López will hope to hand a lead to Ricardo Sánchez, Angel Zerpa, and Eduard Bazardo late. There are six bullpen arms available who have not pitched since Saturday: Jhonathan Díaz, Anthony Molina, Emmanuel De Jesus, Jose Alvarez, José Buttó, and Antonio Senzatela.

Watch this: Eduardo Rodriguez's strikeout rate has plummeted the last three seasons. That means professional hitters are putting his pitches in play. Which means Judge, Witt, and even Schwarber can be dangerous tonight. One or two hung sliders, and Team USA could put up a lot of crooked numbers.

Key players to watch in the WBC Final

Somehow, Team USA will need to find a big hit in this game. For about four games now, the U.S. has been sluggish offensively. Too many times the Americans have waited until there are two outs to get a runner on base. Too often the home run has been the focus of the offense. That needs to change.

Cal Raleigh doesn't have a hit in this tournament. Bryce Harper has no home runs, and has at times, seemed lost at the plate. Bregman has one single and one double in four games.

The best hitters this series for Team USA have been Gunnar Henderson, Brice Turang, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Roman Anthony. But all are left-handed hitters, so it's unclear if DeRosa will play more than one of them Tuesday. Henderson should probably start at third or second.

On Venezuela, the key players are Ronald Acuña Jr., and the three infielders: Maikel Garcia, Ezequiel Tovar, and Luis Arraez. Those three are hitting a combined .407 with 16 RBI. They make contact (only nine strikeouts) and advance on the bases. It seems like tonight, a scratched out run here and there will be so important.

Prediction for WBC Final

We're nearly at the end of this two-week tournament. It's been an amazing showcase for the sport. Regardless of which nation wins tonight, one thing is clear: baseball is beloved across the planet. This is not only an American pastime.

Tuesday I expect the U.S. lineup will tee off on Eduardo Rodriguez. Venezuelan manager López will have to dip into his pen quick, and as long as those arms can stem Team USA, this game will remain close. The Venezuelans can win this game. It's almost a coin flip in my mind. But I'll lean U.S. for my pick.

• USA 5, Venezuela 4