2026 World Baseball Classic Quarterfinals Odds & Best Bets

Eight nations remain in the World Baseball Classic following the most exciting pool play rounds in the history of this tournament. The quarterfinals will be played Friday and Saturday, with two games each day.

The United States is the odds favorite (+135) to win the tournament due to its roster of MVPs and Cy Young award winners. But, the U.S. had to sneak its way into the knockout stage after losing to Italy. It's not a given that the U.S. will emerge as the champion.

(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Dominican Republic at +230 to win the WBC. That team has arguably the most impressive lineup, perhaps more potent than Team USA, which has struggled to plate runs at times.

Odds to win 2026 World Baseball Classic

Odds are from BetMGM:

• United States ... +135
• Dominican Republic ... +230
• Japan ... +425
• Venezuela ... +900
• Puerto Rico ... +1800
• Italy ... +1800
• Canada ... +3500
• Korea ... +5000

These are Futures Odds, which means you wager and wait. If your bet on the U.S. wins, you will receive $135 for every $100 wagered. Using American odds, all bets are based on a $100 bet. So, if you bet $100 on Canada, and the Canadians win this tournament, you'd win $3,500.

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WBC Quarterfinals Schedule

Bolded teams are favorites. Odds shown are from BetMGM.

• Korea vs. Dominican Republic (-800), Friday, March 13, 6:30 p.m. ET
• United States (-900) vs. Canada, Friday, March 13, 8 p.m. ET
• Puerto Rico vs. Italy (-105), Saturday, March 14, 3 p.m. ET
• Venezuela vs. Japan (-160), Saturday, March 14, 9 p.m. ET

From here on out in the WBC, if a team loses, they're out. It's a knockout phase.

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Quarterfinals Best Bets

• BEST BET: Japan (-160) against Venezuela
• PLAYER PROP: Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Wager one unit on each, and you'll win $300.

Favorites to win the 2026 World Baseball Classic

Here's my handicap on the rest of the tournament.

Why the U.S. can win the tournament

In his first start for the U.S., Paul Skenes was nearly unhittable: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB. As it stands, it appears he will be used again in the semifinals. That's a massive advantage against whichever team the U.S. might face in that round (D.R. or Korea).

It's expected that Team USA will roll over Canada, which will start Who Knows in Friday's game. Canada doesn't have the big bats and big arms that the U.S. has. That matchup feels like as close to a lock as we will see in the quarterfinals. The U.S. can beat the Dominicans, which would set up a finals matchup against possibly Japan.

Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Gunnar Henderson are playing the best among the position players. If those three can carry on at that level, all they need is something from the bullpen (and Mason Miller has been lights out).

The U.S. is the team to beat. But it could be beat. That's why this WBC is so fun.

How Italy is being underestimated

The experts are still not sold on the Italians, who went 4-0 in pool play, including a dominant win over the Americans, where they built an 8-0 lead.

The narrative has been: "How can the U.S. lose in its national pastime to Italy?" That misses the point that the Italian team has nine current MLB players and more than a dozen who have played in the majors.

This isn't some grown-up Italian Little league team. The Italian team isn't playing with red sauce on their uniforms. Italy can play.

The Italians have three players who are legit stars and can carry its team to the title: Vinnie Pasquantino, Aaron Nola, and Michael Lorenzen. Any of those three can win a game, as we saw Wednesday when Pasquantino smacked three home runs.

Lorenzen and Nola can start in the semis and finals. The Italians have hit 12 home runs in four games. Nine different players have gone deep. The lineup is scary and red-hot. There is a feel of destiny with the Italians, and they can definitely match up well against Puerto Rico, which has a tournament-best 1.22 ERA.

Don't forget the defending champions

Remember Japan? This team has won 11 consecutive games in World Baseball Classic play. The oddsmakers feel this Japanese team isn't as deep as previous versions that we've seen in international play.

But, Japan is the nation that approaches the WBC as a "team" concept more than any other club. Team Japan is set up to have pieces that fit together in a cohesive unit.

Important to note: Japan has the best player in this tournament. The best player in the world: Shohei Ohtani. The Japanese also have as legit an ace as any team, in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Both Ohtani and Yoshi have won this tourney before.

The JAPAN vs VENEZUELA quarterfinal is not as close as the odds show. Japan should easily clear that hurdle. This team can win again, proving they're the best in the world.