AL MVP Odds 2025: Are Cal Raleigh MVP Odds a Good Opportunity for Baseball Bettors?

Who knows which team will emerge as World Series champion this fall. The baseball playoff tournament is fickle: in a short five-game series, nearly anything can happen.

But before we turn attention to baseball's postseason, there are other issues to evaluate for the baseball bettor.

Which player will win the Most Valuable Player Award in the American League? It's going to be one of two sluggers having iconic seasons.

2025 AL MVP Race: Judge vs Raleigh

Odds for AL MVP as of Thursday according to DraftKings and FanDuel are:

• Aaron Judge -350
• Cal Raleigh +250

Find MLB Awards Futures Odds in the MLB menu of your favorite sportsbook. Navigate to the awards section and find AL Most Valuable Player. Currently, only two players have listed odds in most sports betting apps: Raleigh and Judge.

The case for Aaron Judge to win the 2025 AL MVP award

In all of the advanced or rate stats, Judge enjoys an edge over Cal Relaigh.

Judge is ahead in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, Wins Above Replacement, Win Probability Added, and Batting Runs.

Though batting average is hardly noticed by many modern analysts and MVP voters, it is possible that Judge will win his first batting title. That says a lot about his ability with a piece of lumber in his hands.

Working against Judge is the fact that 2025 is probably going to be his third-best season. When he won the MVP last season, he set career-highs in hits, total bases, RBI, walks, and slugging. He won't top them this year.

Voters may view Judge more harshly if they compare him to himself: Judge isn't going to win the home run title or challenge for a triple crown as he did in other seasons.

However, Judge has a healthy lead over Raleigh in WAR: 8.4 bWAR to 6.5 bWAR for the Seattle catcher. That doesn't mean he will win: twice Mike Trout had higher bWAR than Miguel Cabrera, but lost the MVP each time.

The case for Cal Raleigh as the 2025 AL MVP

Raleigh has set two important and impressive records in 2025: most home runs in a season by a catcher; and most HR by a switch-hitter in a single season. He also leads the AL in homers and runs batted in, meaning he will probably win two-thirds of the triple crown.

The Mariners' greatest catcher ever is having a season for the ages, and he's establishing himself as one of the best switch-hitters the game has seen in a long time. He has a chance to erase Ken Griffey Jr.'s name from the franchise record book too: for most HR by a Seattle player in one season.

But it may be the demands of playing defense that sway voters in the direction of the Seattle receiver. Consider this:

• Raleigh has crouched behind the dish in more than 1,000 innings this season.
• In 2025, Raleigh is on pace to lead his league in games caught for a third straight season.
• Raleigh is a two-time Gold Glove winner and may add a third after this season.

Consider this: through 2025, 35 players have hit 50+ HR in a season. Only five of the 35 played a so-called skill position (catcher, second base, shortstop, center field). Raleigh is the only catcher.

Unlike Judge and the Yankees, Raleigh and the M's have only recently maneuvered into a firm position as a playoff team. The second half push, led by Raleigh, may be enough to grab votes for the Seattle star.

It shouldn't count in his favor, but the fact that Raleigh won the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game in July could serve as a highlight some voters can't ignore.

Overall it's Raleigh's combination of defense and offense that make him a well-rounded candidate, compared to Judge. The Yankee outfielder (-0.6 in Defensive Wins Above Replacement as a right fielder) is not known for his glove work.

Catchers to Win MVP Award

Raleigh would become the 13th catcher to win an MVP award.

• Bob O'Farrell: 1926
• Mickey Cochrane: 1928, 1934
• Gabby Hartnett: 1935
• Ernie Lombardi: 1938
• Yogi Berra: 1951, 1954, 1955
• Roy Campanella: 1951, 1953, 1955
• Elston Howard: 1963
• Johnny Bench: 1970, 1972
• Thurman Munson: 1976
• Iván Rodríguez: 1999
• Joe Mauer: 2009
• Buster Posey: 2012

BOLD indicates member of the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Eight of the 12 catchers to win an MVP award are in the Hall of Fame. None of them were switch-hitters like Raleigh.