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Best player prop bets for Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers on Mar. 16

Publish Date:03/16/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Lakers and the Warriors season series is tied 1-1.
  • Steph Curry is expected to return tonight after missing several games due to an ankle injury.
  • The Lakers are 2 point spread favorites for tonights matchup vs. the Warriors.
  • Sara Jane breaks down her best player props for Warriors vs. Lakers on Mar. 16.

(Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Β 

It's Saturday, and there's a primetime matchup between the Golden State Warriors (34-31, 17-14 away) and the Los Angeles Lakers (36-31, 24-11 home). An enticing matchup for bettors, Lakers LeBron James and Steph Curry of the Warriors, will matchup for the third meeting of the season. With the playoffs set to begin in a month, this game will certainly have a playoff feel.

With the Play-in Tournament, the Lakers and Warriors are currently seeded as the final teams in the western play in. The Lakers, who are 6-4 in their last ten games, remain one game ahead of Golden State for the no. 9 seed in the western conference.

Coming off a 120-107 loss in Sacramento, the Lakers will the matchup at home, in which they only have 11 losses.

While Warriors star Steph Curry suffered an ankle injury on Mar. 7, per CBS, he's expected to return to the lineup tonight. For Golden State, Draymond Green is listed as questionable with a back injury.

For the Lakers, they have a slew of injuries, which include Cam Reddish, Christian Wood, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent, and Colin Castleton, who are all listed as out.

5-5 in their last ten matchups, head coach Steve Kerr and the Warriors will travel to Los Angeles for the first time this season. Coming off a 109-99 loss against Dallas, they hold a comfortable 3.5 game lead over the Houston Rockets for the no. 10 seed.

With 15 games remaining and the playoffs looming, this will be an extremely vital matchup for both sides.

The Lakers and the Warriors season series is tied 1-1

Slated to matchup a total of four times in the regular season, the season series is split. In an exhilarating first matchup, the Lakers claimed victory, with a 145-144 overtime win. In their second meeting, the Warriors defeated a LeBron less Lakers 128-110 at home.

4th in the Pacific Division, the Lakers will kick off a four-game home-stand against Golden State, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Indiana. With the remaining games ahead,Β  LA has a relatively tough schedule ahead, with nine matchups against teams above .500.

With 17 games remaining, the Warriors will wrap up their three game road trip, before hosting a mini home-stand against New York, Memphis, and Indiana. While the Warriors have a less rigorous schedule, they are seated in the bottom end of the western conference.

In anticipation of this highly awaited matchup between two teams, I've analyzed all available statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop predictions for tonight's game.

Certainly, here are my preferred NBA prop bets for Saturday, Mar. 16, all taken as straight bets.Β  Given my focus on bankroll management, I refrained from placing multiple units on any of these individual bets.

ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF MAR. 16 AT 1:00 A.M. ET.

Sara Jane's NBA betting record for the month of March: 41-37

SARA JANE'S PLAYER PROP BET #1: DRAYMOND GREEN

DRAYMOND GREEN SEASON STATS

PPG FG 3 PT FT REB AST STL BLK
9.0 49.5% 42.3% 75.4% 7.0 5.9 0.8 0.9

I was able to grab Draymond Green over 11.5 points and assists, and I am sure this line will increase throughout the day. I personally feel this line is extremely low, considering Green averages 9.0 points and 5.9 assists alone.

Nearly three points below what his season average sits at, Green will get the Lakers, who allow the 22nd most points in the NBA (117.6).

Another reason why I love this prop, LA allows the 26th most assists per game (28.2), and even with big man Anthony Davis, opponents are snagging 44.3 rebounds per game.

Green, who's listed as questionable, is putting up the most points per game since the 2017-2018 season. Granted he's only appeared in 40 games, however, he's shooting a career best 42.3 percent from deep. Averaging one three pointer on 2.5 attempts, that would make up nearly 27 percent of the total prop line tonight.

While Green has only hit the over in two of the last five games, Steve Kerr is playing him at center, where he will get plenty of opportunities. With Golden State fourth in second chance points (16), Draymond will and has always been a playmaker for the Warriors.

Especially if Steph Curry is able to suit up, Green's been dishing dimes to everyone. While his assists totals are down since the beginning of his career, again, the line is simply too low.

DRAYMOND GREEN DRAFT KINGS ODDS

  • Over 11.5 points and assists (-140)
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If you are seeking more details about basketball betting, visit our Basketball Betting page.

This line has great value at -140 vs. the Lakers

Although Green hasn't hit the over in the last two games, the hit rate of this prop is nearly 70 percent this season. At -140 odds, he gets Los Angeles,Β  where he's hit well over 11.5 points and assists several times. He's been stellar in two matchups against James and company this season, putting up 8.0 points, 8.0, assists, and 10.5 rebounds.

Averaging a solid 33.5 minutes against them, he was exceptional, especially that first matchup. In fact, aΒ  small fraction of his points and assists could be inflated due to the overtime game. However, he's historically performed well against them.

In the last five matchups against Los Angeles, Green hit the over in five straight games.

Additionally, he's compiled 16 assists in the last two matchups, and hit over 11.5 points and assists in eight of the last night matchups against LA.

Given the Lakers aren't the best in stopping the passing lanes, they play at a faster pace, which should give Green plenty of opportunities on the defensive and offensive end. Averaging nearly 11 potential assists per game, the Lakers allow the 10th most points and assists to power forwards.

I also love this prop, considering how other forwards and centers have played against the Warriors. Over the past week, Domantas Sabonis (Kings), Nikola Jokic ( Nuggets), Mason Plumlee (Clippers), Daniel Theis (Clippers), Jusuf Nurkic (Suns), and Bol Bol (Nuggets) are all centers who hit over their points and assist props.

This prop is a strong candidate tonight, especially since the Lakers rank 10th against forwards in points and assists.

SARA JANE'S PLAYER PROP BET #1: LEBRON JAMES

LEBRON JAMES SEASON STATS

PPG FG 3 PT FT REB AST STL BLK
25.2 52.7% 40.3% 74.1% 7.2 8.0 1.3 0.6

LEBRON JAMES DRAFT KINGS ODDS

  • Under 2.5 three pointers made (-166)

I'm picking LeBron James to have under 2.5 three-pointers made tonight against the Golden State Warriors.Β  While he missed the last matchup, he had a heavy stat line in their overtime win against Golden State on Jan 2. Adding 36 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists,Β  James shot just 2-4 from long range.

If James is available to suit up tonight, I expect him to have a colossal game. I'm fairly confident in this prop, especially since he only made two deep shots in their last outing.

If there's one aspect of James game that's been known, he excels at driving in the paint, especially against the Warriors. Given Golden State allows the 16th most points allowed in the paint (50.4), that's where I would expect James to put up a bulk of his points.

While Draymond Green is known for his defensive prowess, the Warriors still manage to put together a smaller lineup on a daily basis. Unlike years prior, the Warriors are top seven in perimeter defense, allowing opponents to shoot 35.7 percent from deep.

Although James is playing the most efficient from deep since theΒ  2012-2013 season, he's averaging less shots from deep.

4-12 in his last two matchups against the Kings and Timberwolves, he's averaging 4.8 three-point attempts this month. That is in fact is lowest all season.

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The odds have a great value considering the stats

Mentioned before, James has a history of performing well against the Warriors. However, over his last five matchups against Golden State, he's hit over 2.5 three-pointers just once. Hitting the over in just four of the last ten games against them, I will continue to ride this trend tonight. While Golden State gives up just over 13 treys per game, I'm not accounting for James to hit many.

The line is slightly elevated a -166. However, I believe it should be higher, especially given his recent game play, and previous matchups with Golden State.

While the Warriors are giving up 3.0 three-pointers made to small forwards this season, LeBron hit over 2.5 three-pointers in just three of the last ten games. However, I'm not taking away his incredible play as of late, considering he's averaging heavy minutes and points per game.

Regardless of Darvin Ham's plan to limit James, the Lakers simply need him on the court. At 39 years old, and the oldest player in the NBA, he continues to produce at an extremely high level. Over the last ten games, he's putting up 27.1 points per game, on exactly 2.5 three-pointers made per game.

While James is efficient in volume scoring in minutes, it's simply not translating to an increasing amount of three-pointers.

SARA JANE'S PLAYER PROP BET #3: STEPH CURRY

STEPH CURRY SEASON STATS

PPG FG 3 PT FT REB AST STL BLK
26.9 44.9% 40.7% 75.4% 4.4 4.9 0.8 0.4

Tonight, I have Steph Curry to dish out over 4.5 assists against the Lakers. Expected to return from injury, it's unclear whether Curry will be on any sort of minute restrictions tonight. Averaging 4.9 assists on the season, the line is slightly lower than his season average. Currently listed as a game-time-decision, Curry should have plenty of passing opportunities.

This is especially since Golden State ranks 5th in most assists per game, with 28.9.

While Curry hasn't stepped foot on the hardwood since Mar. 7, he's hit the over in 6 out of the last 10 games played. Additionally, he has a prime matchup with the Lakers, especially since LA allows the 26th most assists per game (28.2). Giving up the 14th most assists to point guards, Curry shouldn't have problems passing the rock tonight.

STEPH CURRY FANDUEL ODDS

  • Over 4.5 assists (-160)
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Chef Curry has that nickname for a reason. Known to cook up against the Lakers, he's facilitated over 4.5 assists in 8 of the last 10 meetings. In two matchups this season, he's had 15 cumulative assists, and hit well over 4.5 in five straight meetings.

With a remarkable 42 assists in their last five meetings, Curry has plenty of teammates to distribute the ball to. This is crucial, especially with Chris Paul back in the lineup.

I honestly think the line is low at -4.5, and expect that to rise throughout the day. Curry and the Warriors will have plenty of changes to capitalize on offense, especially against fast pace. Over the last ten matchups against LA, Curry was only limited to under 4.5 assist twice.

To keep yourself updated on the newest happenings, be sure to check out our Betting News Section.

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