Key Points
- The La Clippers and Dallas Mavericks are tied 1-1.
- Sara Jane breaks down her best player props for Clippers vs. Mavericks on Apr. 26.
It's Friday, and tonight is game three between the No. 4 seed Los Angeles Clippers (51-31, 26-15 away) and the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks (50-32, 25-16 home). With the series tied 1-1, the Mavericks will host the Clippers at home tonight.
6-4 against Dallas in their last ten meetings, the Clippers find themselves as 4.5-point underdogs tonight. After winning the regular season series 2-1 against Dallas, Clippers star Kawhi Leonard is again questionable with a knee injury.
(Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images)
A classic No. 4 vs. No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, the Mavericks are fresh off an exhilarating 96-93 game two victory over LA. Backcourt duo Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic combined for 55 points, while the Clippers were held to just 36.8 percent from the floor. 6-4 over the last ten games, Dallas finally broke their three-game losing streak.
The matchup will air on ESPN with tip-off set for 8:00 p.m. ET. With several players on the injury report, one team will take the series lead tonight. Will it be the Clippers with Paul George, James Harden, and Kawhi Leonard, or will Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving lead Dallas to a game-three victory?
In anticipation of tonight's matchup, I've compiled all the statistics, analytics, and odds to provide my top player prop predictions.
Here are my preferred NBA prop bets for Friday, Apr.26, all taken as straight bets. Given my focus on bankroll management, I refrained from placing multiple units on these bets.
ODDS ARE CURRENT AS OF APR. 26 AT 12 P.M. ET.
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PLAYER PROP BET #1: RUSSELL WESTBROOK
RUSSELL WESTBROOK SEASON STATS
| Statistic |
PPG |
FG % |
3PT % |
FT % |
REB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
| Value |
11.1 |
45.4 |
27.3 |
68.8 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
This may not be the most popular prop tonight. However, I love
Russell Westbrook
for adding over 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists for -113. At 15.5, this line is low, considering he averaged 11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on the season. While the prop is more than five points lower than his season average, I expect Westbrook to make a difference tonight.
Given it's the postseason, Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue has mainly kept the rotation the same. With Westbrook averaging more points in the postseason (24), he's averaged 10 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in two games against Dallas in the playoffs.
A difference maker behind Terrance Mann and James Harden, Westbrook has hit this prop 100 percent in the last seven matchups against Dallas. That's extremely hard to fade, and the line slightly disrespects Russ.
Although the Mavericks have improved defensively, Westbrook faces a squad that allows the 20th most points (115.6), 25th most rebounds (45.1), and 22nd most dimes per game (27.5).
RUSSELL WESTBROOK FANDUEL ODDS
- Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113)
I love Westbrooks's fit with the Clippers, especially the number of minutes Lue gives him. He has a 100 percent hit rate when he plays over 25 minutes over his last seven matchups against Dallas; I expect the same result tonight.
On the points side, Westbrook averages 8-9 shots per game, which is decent for a role guy off the bench. If there's anyone I trust, it's Westbrook in a playoff situation.
If Kawhi Leonard cannot suit up tonight, Westbrook hit over 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists in 11 of the last 12 games. In addition, he's hit the over with and without Leonard in the lineup against Dallas. Speaking of Kawhi, even with him in the lineup, Westbrook managed 24 points.
Although he's lost some steam over the years, he was once well-known as the "triple-double king" for a reason.
Expect Westbrook to take advantage of every minute to help his team on the floor. It's a spark the Clippers so severely need; he will also be a key defender on Kyrie Irving tonight.
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PLAYER PROP BET #2: KYRIE IRVING
KYRIE IRVING SEASON STATS
| Statistic |
PPG |
FG % |
3PT % |
FT % |
REB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
| Value |
25.6 |
49.7 |
41.1 |
90.5 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
I grabbed
Kyrie Irving's
over 30.5 points and rebounds on DraftKings for +100, and I'm confident this line won't be plus odds before tip-off. At the same time, I wondered myself how Irving would fit in the backcourt with Luka Doncic; the two fit like a glove.
Aggressive in the first two games, Irving is coming off a 23-point, six-rebound performance. In game one, the guard poured in 31 points and seven rebounds.
If game three is relatively close, Irving should see a hefty amount of minutes. Averaging 40.5 minutes on the floor in the first two games, the Mavericks star has seen plenty of shot volume in this series. Putting up 18 shots per game, there's no doubt in my mind Irving is locked in.
When healthy, Irving is one of the most athletic point guards. He's shooting 50 percent from deep on 14 three-point attempts over the last two games. Sure, the Clippers are one of the pristine teams on the defensive end; however, he's been lighting it up against LA.
30.5 may seem a tad high. However, the Mavs guard is averaging over 25 points alone this season. While this number is right around his season averages, he has a prime matchup in front of the home fans tonight.
KYRIE IRVING DRAFT KINGS ODDS
- Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (+100)
I love this prop tonight at +100 for several reasons. First, the Mavericks are headed back to Dallas for game three, where Irving's hit this prop in three straight home games.
Averaging 27 points and 5.9 rebounds at home this year, the guard averaged 26.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in two regular-season games against the Clippers. He's had over 30.5 points and rebounds in three of his last five matchups against LA.
Irving's been a menace on the boards regarding rebounds, grabbing at least six in his last four games against the Clippers. If Daniel Gafford can suit up for tonight's game, that may work in Kyrie's favor.
Although Los Angeles ranks 5th overall in rebounds allowed, that hasn't stopped the former Duke star from laying it out all on the floor. After all, the Clippers allow the 12th most points and 23rd most rebounds to shooting guards. With 13 rebounds in two playoff games, Irving remains one of the most proficient rebounders at his position.
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WHY KYRIE CAN HIT THIS PROP
Speaking of points, most of the attention has been heavily focused on Luka Doncic, with Harden as his primary defender.
This is what makes the Maverick's backcourt so lethal. Often many times, the Clippers, similar to other teams, have fallen victim to doubling Doncic, which has left Irving wide open. We've seen this in similar teams, such as the Celtics and Nuggets, especially with Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic.
Regarding Kyrie and scoring, Irving and Doncic have to step up if the Mavericks want to take the victory tonight. Sure, Dallas has talent around them. However, I expect them to carry over their momentum from game two.
This prop has an 89 percent hit rate when Irving plays 40 minutes or more. He's been hot over the last ten games, averaging 28 points and 4.8 rebounds.
As Kyrie said after game 2, it was a tough pill to swallow not making the playoffs last season. Given how he expresses his emotions on the court, expect plenty tonight at home.
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PLAYER PROP BET #3: IVICA ZUBAC
IVICA ZUBAC SEASON STATS
| Statistic |
PPG |
FG % |
3PT % |
FT % |
REB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
| Value |
11.7 |
64.9 |
0 |
72.3 |
9.2 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
I'm locking in
Ivica Zubac, center for the LA Clippers to put up a double-double this evening. After two consecutive double-doubles, I'm high on this prop again. With Mason Plumlee diving in minutes, Zubac has taken a giant leap forward this postseason.
Averaging 11.7 points and 9.2 rebounds on the year, Zubac is putting up 16.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in two games against the Mavericks.
IVICA ZUBAC DRAFT KINGS ODDS
What I love about this prop is that the Clippers center is putting up these types of numbers against Lively, Washington, and Gafford. While I love the rebounding aspect of this much more, he's averaged 29 shot attempts, at 51.7 percent against the Mavericks.
As long as he stays out of foul trouble, Zubac has played 33 minutes per game, which is roughly seven more than he's played during the regular season. At -105 odds, I'm more than happy to take a chance on Ivica Zubac to put up a double-double tonight.
After all, the Mavericks allow 46 boards a game, which is a significant amount.
Expect Zubac to dominate on the glass once again, and I'm more confident now that he's seen heavy minutes from Lue. If Kawhi Leonard cannot suit up tonight, that should help with his odds. At almost + money, I love the value.
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