Betting odds and predictions for UFC 301

The UFC heads back to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for a stacked UFC 301 event. Headlining the fight card are two of the best men's flyweight fighters as the reigning and defending champion Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his title once more when he takes on the surging Australian Steve Erceg.

(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

The rest of this fight card is littered with exciting fights like the return of Jose Aldo after a brief retirement stint taking on the surging Jonathan Martinez in the co-main event of this fight card. Then there are low-key bangers like Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho, Joanderson Brito vs. Jack Shore, and Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai.

With this stacked PPV event on tap this weekend, we take a look at the odds, predictions, and best bets to put money into your pockets. So, let's get down to business!

UFC 301 FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 4

• ALEXANDRE PANTOJA:-188
• STEVE ERCEG: +158
• JONATHAN MARTINEZ: -144
• JOSE ALDO: +122
• VITOR PETRINO: -490
• ANTHONY SMITH: +380
• MICHEL PEREIRA: -600
• IHOR POTIERIA: +450
• CAIO BORRALHO: -600
• PAUL CRAIG: +450
• JOANDERSON BRITO: -180
• JACK SHORE: +152
• IASMIN LUCINDO: -420
• KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ: +330
• MYKTYBEK OROLBAI: -260
• ELVES BRENER: +215
• DRAKKAR KLOSE: -198
• JOAQUIM SILVA: +166
• MAURICIO RUFFY: -225
• JAMIE MULLARKEY: +188
• DIONE BARBOSA: -250
• ERNESTA KARECKAITE: +205
• ISMAEL BONFIM: -560
• VINC PICHEL: +420
• ALESSANDRO COSTA: -126
• KEVIN BORJAS: +108

BEST BETS FOR UFC 301

DRAKKAR KLOSE WINS BY DECISION (+200)

Drakkar Klose comes into this fight this weekend riding a three-fight winning streak. He most recently viciously slammed Jos Solecki into oblivion less than two minutes into the first round. That put his UFC record at an outstanding 8-2 in 10 fights with the promotion and is looking for another big victory to give him a chance to fight someone in the top 15 in the lightweight rankings.

He gets to face off against Brazil's Joaquim Silva who is also coming off a victory in his last fight dominating Clay Guida for a unanimous decision. Silva has had some mixed success during his time in the UFC with just a 6-4 record.

In Silva's 10 fights, he has been to a decision 40% of the time winning three out of those four decisions. As for Klose, he's been to a decision in 7 out of his 10 fights inside the Octagon winning 6 of those decisions. While Klose certainly as the power to knock out his opponents before that slam knockout of Joe Solecki he only had one knockout in the UFC and that was against already-released fighter Brandon Jenkins.

With two heavy hitters like Klose and Silva facing off against one another, it's not for the faint at heart to bet a decision prop but there is a ton of value on Klose utilizing all of his tools to get the job done over the course of 15 minutes. It may be a sweat but Klose gets the nod on the judge's scorecards at UFC 301.

Dione Barbosa to Win by Submission (+240)

Dione Barbosa finally gets to make her UFC debut after securing her UFC contract on the last season of the Contender Series where she submitted Rainn Guerrero via first-round armbar. She gets to take on former boxer and kickboxer Ernesta Kareckaite who will also be making her long-awaited UFC debut after securing her contract in a back-and-forth brawl on the Contender Series last season.

Barbosa is a high-level grappler that is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judoka black belt. She has now submissions in three of her six professional victories. When the fight hits the mat she's in a world of her own and it showed when Guerrero took her down early after a caught kick in round one. From there she was able to reverse position numerous times until she eventually snatched an arm for the armbar where Guerrero was forced to tape with less than a minute left in the first round.

She trains out of a well-respected gym Kings MMA with high-level fighters like Beneil Dariush giving her the necessary training partners to get ready for the big show. Also, she has a ton of experience against UFC-level talent like when she defeated Karine Silva earlier in her career she's on an absolute tear in the UFC right now and her only losses are against Jena Bishop who's an undefeated MMA fighter who's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world champion and Josiane Nunes who's been knocking out the competition in the UFC's bantamweight division.

As for Ernesta Kareckaite, she's a lethal striker who loves to overwhelm her opponents with an immense amount of volume. She will have the height and reach advantages in this matchup but her frame which is tall and lanky doesn't seem built to keep this fight from hitting the mat. Also, this is by far the best grappler that Kareckaite has ever faced in her young MMA career so expect this fight to be over shortly thereafter once it hits the mat. Ultimately, things get a bit dicey early on the feet for Barbosa but then she takes the fight to the mat and sinks in the rear-naked choke, and notches her first victory inside the Octagon.

Alessandro Costa Wins by Submission (+550)

This play right here has immense value. Alessandro Costa may not have a submission since 2019 as he's more accustomed to knocking out the opposition but he has such a massive advantage in the grappling against his counterpart Kevin Borjas it's hard to see that Costa doesn't use this to his advantage.

Costa's background is in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu where he is a black belt and he is attempting 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes which is good enough against a fighter like Borjas who's been taken down a staggering seven times in his two fights under the UFC banner. Also, allowing someone like Joshua Van who's a striker to land 2 of 4 takedowns bodes well for Costa in this matchup who's far better than someone like Van in those regards.

As long as Costa fights smart and doesn't make this a kickboxing match and mixes in the takedowns it is a very high probability that we see Costa notch his first submission inside the Octagon this weekend at UFC  301.