Bo Nix Injury Has Major Impact on Broncos’ Super Bowl Odds (but there is still value)

Denver Broncos fans should be on cloud nine after their team secured a spot in the AFC title game. But then news of the season-ending ankle injury to Bo Nix broke. As could be expected, the news had a significant impact on Denver’s Super Bowl odds. The second-year quarterback was an important piece of the Broncos' puzzle.

So, it comes as no shock that Denver’s Super Bowl odds have changed following the injury to Nix. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad idea to bet on the Broncos now.

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Denver Broncos Super Bowl Odds Change Following Bo Nix Injury

Going into the weekend, many lookahead lines at sportsbooks had the Broncos favored to beat the Patriots at -1.5. But in the aftermath of the injury to Nix, the opening odds were set at Patriots -4.5. The line has since moved to -5.5. The shift is understandable. Quarterbacks are an important piece to the puzzle for NFL teams.

Losing a starter and being forced to go with a backup can be devastating to an offense. As for Denver's Super Bowl odds, they were at +700 (DraftKings) heading into the divisional round. With the big win over Buffalo, the Broncos' odds dropped to +370. But when the news broke about Bo Nix’s fractured ankle, the odds jumped back up to +650.

As of Monday afternoon, Denver’s Super Bowl 60 odds sit at +1100. Journeyman Jarrett Stidham is set to start in the AFC Championship game this Sunday against the New England Patriots, the team that drafted him back in 2019.

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Losing Bo Nix Hurts But It May Not Be That Bad

On the surface, of course, it does. Losing QB1 is never a good thing, but it may not be as bad as it would be for the Patriots, Seahawks, or Rams. Why? Because the offense is not what got the Broncos the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a spot in the AFC title game.

It was the defense.

Denver’s offense ranked tenth in total yards with 342.6 yards per game, 11th passing (223.9 yards per game), and 16th rushing (118.7 yards per game). They scored 23.6 points per game, good enough for 14th in the league. Good numbers? Sure, but great? Of course not! But they didn’t need to be since the defense ranked:

• Second in yards allowed (278.2).
• Seventh against the pass (187.2).
• Second against the run (91.1).
• Second in scoring with 18.3 points per game allowed.

Bet on the Broncos to Win Super Bowl 60?

Whether you should is a question every bettor must answer for themselves. But there is a lot of value in the Broncos' odds right now. It is easy to count them out because of Stidham, but teams have won the Super Bowl without great play from their QB:

• Peyton Manning was well past his prime when he and the Broncos won Super Bowl 50.
• Few people knew who Nick Foles was before he took over late in the season and led the Eagles to a Super Bowl 52 win.
• Brad Johnson was a mediocre QB (Super Bowl 37).
• Giants fans will likely want Jeff Hostetler (Super Bowl 25) on this list.
• Trent Dilfer was definitely not the reason the Ravens won Super Bowl 35.

According to that old saying, it’s defense that wins championships. Denver happens to have a pretty good one, so…crazier things have happened in the NFL. If you take a chance and win, a $100 wager will result in a $1200 payday (not too shabby).