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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat: Game 4 betting predictions and odds for Apr. 29

Publish Date: 04/29/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

It's Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs first-round between the Boston Celtics (64-18, 27-14 away) and the Miami Heat (46-36, 22-19 home). With a 2-1 lead, the Celtics will matchup with the Heat for the second consecutive game on the road. In another battle in South beach, it's only a matter of time before the Celtics pull ahead. Or will Erik Spoelstra and the Heat find a way to even up the series 2-2?

 

Although Miami aren't quite on the heels of elimination, they were blasted by the Celtics 104-84 at home in game 2. After a complete domination in game 1, Boston made the necessary adjustments, and simply came out playing Celtics basketball. After allowing the Heat to score a post season franchise high 23 points, the Celtics brought out the clamps on Saturday. While 84 points was the lowest Boston held any opponent this year, the Heat shot an abysmal 41.6 percent from the field, and 32.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Fueled by a colossal second quarter, the Celtics three-point shooting wasn't the difference maker in this game. It was the bounce back of big man Kristaps Porzingis, combined with their stifling defense. Dominating on the glass and inside the paint, Boston was able to limit turnovers, while creating more actions. In another words, it was less iso ball, and more ball movement for the C's.

THE MIAMI HEAT ARE 10.5 POINT UNDERDOGS

The Miami Heat will head into game four as 10.5 point underdogs. Limited by injuries, Terry Rozier, Jimmy Butler, and Josh Richardson are unable to suit up for tonight's matchup. On the bright side, veteran guard Delon Wright will be available to play tonight. Although Wright is averaging less than 5PPG, he added 17 points in game 2, and will add depth to a depleted backcourt.

I've mentioned this in my other articles, you can never underestimate Spoelstra and the Miami Heat. Let's dive into how to bet on tonight's game, where I've compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Monday, Apr. 29.

BOSTON CELTICS VS. MIAMI HEAT FAN DUEL ODDS FOR APR. 29

MONEY LINE

  • BOSTON CELTICS: -520
  • MIAMI HEAT: +400

SPREAD

  • BOSTON CELTICS: -10.5 (-110)
  • MIAMI HEAT: +10.5 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 203.5 (-110)
  • UNDER: 203.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR BOSTON CELTICS VS. MIAMI HEAT

  • FanDuel currently has the best Celtics moneyline odds at -520
  • The Boston Celtics are 10.5-point- favorites against the Miami Heat.  DraftKings currently has the best odds currently at (-108)
  • The Miami Heat are the underdogs by 10.5 points to cover the spread tonight. Caesars currently has the best odds at -105 for Miami to cover the spread
  • BetMGM currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -105 for the over (203.5), and Caesars for the under (-105).
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MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

  • C: NONE

MIAMI HEAT INJURY REPORT

  • G: TERRY ROZIER, OUT: (NECK)
  • G: JOSH RICHARDSON, OUT: (RIGHT SHOULDER)
  • F: JIMMY BUTLER, OUT:(SPRAINED MCL)

BOSTON CELTICS POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams

Last 5 Games 4-1
Last 10 Games 7-3
Season ATS Record 43-37-5
Season O/U Record 36-49-0
Last 5 Games ATS 3-1-1
Last 10 Games ATS 4-4-2
Last 5 Games O/U 3-2
Last 10 Games O/U 6-4
Offensive Rating (Rank) 118.6 (3)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 107 (3)
Points Per Game (Rank) 106.3 (8)
Pace (Rank) 89.83 (T-15)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 95.3 (3)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 38.1 % (4)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 42 (10)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins: OKC (-12), Charlotte (-8), Miami (-14.5, -9.5)

MIAMI HEAT POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams

Last 5 Games 2-3
Last 10 Games 5-5
Season ATS Record 41-42-2
Season O/U Record 36-49-0
Last 5 Games ATS 3-2
Last 10 Games ATS 6-4
Last 5 Games O/U 2-3
Last 10 Games O/U 6-4
Offensive Rating (Rank) 107 (14)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 118.6 (14)
Points Per Game (Rank) 106.3 (
Pace (Rank) 89.83 (T-15)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 106.3 (9)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 40.7 % (3)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 36.7 (15)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins: Indiana (+3), Atlanta (-3.5), Toronto (-14), Philadelphia (+5.5), Chicago (-2), Boston (+14)

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: CELTICS VS. HEAT

Season Matchups:

Game 1: Boston 119, Miami 111( Miami +9, Over 217.5)
Game 2: Boston 143, Miami 110 (Boston -8.5, Over 225)
Game 3: Boston 110, Miami 106 (Miami +8, Under 225)
Playoffs Game 1: Boston 114, Miami 94 (Boston -14.5,Under 210)
Playoffs Game 2: Miami 111, Boston 101 (Miami +14, Over 205.5)
Playoffs Game 3: Boston 104, Miami 84 (Boston -9.5, Under 206).

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WHY THE MIAMI HEAT CAN COVER THE SPREAD

The Miami Heat have been here before, and they flat out defeated the Celtics in game 2, 111-101. If there's anyone I trust in the business, its Erik Spoelstra to get it done. Without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, they get Delon Wright back on the lineup, who could certainly boost a thin backcourt.  Now with home court advantage, the Heat will have to rely on simply coaching, rather than the one-on-one matchups on the floor.

6-4 against the spread in their last ten games, the Heat are 2-1 when underdogs against by a spread of nine points are higher. Although they were swept by Boston 3-0 in the regular season, Miami covered in three of their last six meetings. With their backs against the wall, 9.5 is a large spread, especially throughout the NBA Playoffs. If Miami can control the tempo, and play at their level, they absolutely have a chance of covering the spread. If they can throw bodies and clog the paint against Porzingis, they will cover the 9.5 point spread.

I do think Boston will win the money line tonight at -520, which I stayed away from. With odds that high, you would have to risk an absurd amount of money to see a return. With that said, if Bam Adebayo can bounce back from game 2, the Heat have a shot of playing bully ball inside the paint. If Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, among their other three-point shooters can get hot, Miami's shooting well over 45 percent from the left and right corner threes. In another to tie up the series, Miami will have to outshoot Boston, especially beyond the arc. They've done it before with 23 three-pointers in game 2. I'd like to think Spoelstra has something up his sleeve for this matchup.

STAY AWAY FROM CELTICS MONEY LINE AT -520

It's not or never for Miami, who will head back to Boston after tonight's matchup. Look for Adebayo to carry the Heat, as he's leading the team with 21.7 points and 8.7 rebounds through the first three games. A 41-42-2 record against the spread, the Heat have a 31.4 percent cover rate in 11 wins as underdogs.

WHY BOSTON CAN COVER THE SPREAD

The Boston Celtics are the no. 1 seed for a reason, and sit on a 104-84 game 3 victory over the Heat. While the Celtics made some slight adjustments, they simply are playing C's basketball. 43-37-5 against the spread on the season, Boston is coming off a massive 9.5 point spread coverage in game 3. Given Boston conceded to Miami in two of the three last Eastern Conference Finals, their confidence has surely soared after the last game.

5-5 against the spread vs. Miami Heat in their last ten matchups, the Celtics are 2-1 ATS against Miami through three games. Covering both a 14.5 and 9.5 favorable point spread, Boston is 20-19-3 against the spread on the road. While one would think home court advantage is prime in this matchup, the Heat have been dreadful covering the spread at home. 16-26-0 at home, home court advantage hasn't been kind to Miami.

It's no question the Celtics defense came out to play in game 3, limiting the Heat to 84 points. Their ability to navigate screens and drop back was crisp, and Kristaps Porzingis provided much more rim protection in the third matchup. While the Heat have trouble scoring overall this season, they shot just 41.6 percent from the field, and 9-28 from downtown. If Boston can limit Adebayo and Herro, it would create concerns for Miami offensively. After all, they combined for a total of  13-34 from the field last game.

THE BOSTON CELTICS ARE UNDEFEATED AGAINST MIAMI ON THE ROAD IN THEIR LAST 5 MEETINGS

Overall, the Celtics are are 5-0 against Miami in their last five road meetings, and I do believe the trend will continue tonight. Completely avoiding the money line, the Celtics have all the momentum to cover the spread tonight. With the elite ability to stretch the floor, all five starters can shoot the rock, and Joe Mazzulla has complete faith in his eight man rotation. Heck, even Luke Kornet received playing minutes when Porzingis racked up his second foul.

With the Celtics ranking second in the playoffs in three-point attempts per game (39.3), they are shooting at a high clip (38 percent), and are limiting the Heat to 96 points per game in three matchups. Through the first round, they are not only dominating Miami on the boards, but averaging 10 more points per game. As long as the offense flows through Jayson Tatum, it should open up the floor, and the opportunity for drive and kickouts.

FINAL CELTICS-HEAT PICK & PREDICTION

I respect the Heat Culture, and the way Erik Spoelstra has handled such adversity with an injury riddled roster. While the Heat showed out to play in game 2, Boston simply responded how they normally play. From Joe Mazzulla to the players, there wasn't a moment of panic in the Celtics organization, and at their best, they can cover this spread.

The bigger question remains, can the Celtics keep up their momentum defensively, and find ways to limit Adebayo and Herro. Given their past shortcomings in the playoffs, can Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis get this team over the hump?

I expect the Celtics to have a balanced scoring attack tonight, and win the turnover battles, which they scored 24 points of 12 Miami turnovers last game. Although this isn't an elimination for either team, the Heat lack serious depth, especially with Jovic and Jaquez still developing. The Celtics are completely healthy, and it's now up to them to punch first, and place at their own pace and style. Look for Boston to cover a massive 10.5 point spread to bring this series back to Boston. After all this is a team that limited Miami to 12 first quarter points, and dumped 42 points on them in the second quarter. And if you look at last game, the C's only shot 29.7 percent from three.

CELTICS -10.5 (-110)

My final remark, the Celtics won't let Miami shoot 53 percent from deep again, and I do believe this series will be over in five games. I also expect them to continue to close out and take care of business. With Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown at the prime of their careers, look for Boston to shine tonight. Porzingis, at 7 foot 3, will be the ultimate x-factor tonight for Boston. While anything can happen in the NBA playoffs, I truly believe the Celtics have the star power to cover against the Heat, who are thin at multiple positions.

FINAL CELTICS- MIAMI HEAT PICK & PREDICTION: BOSTON CELTICS -10.5 (-110 DRAFTKINGS)

To keep yourself updated on the newest happenings, be sure to check out our Betting News Section. We've organized all the updates so you can find all you need, in one convenient location.

 

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