Key Points
- The Cleveland Cavaliers lead the series 3-2
- The Orlando are 3-2 ATS in the playoffs
- The Magic are 2-0 at home in the playoffs
(Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images)
It's game 6 between the Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34, 22-19 away) and the Orlando Magic (47-35, 29-12 home). With a 3-2 series lead, the Cavaliers will face the Magic on the road tonight. In a highly anticipated NBA playoff matchup, Orlando is in danger of elimination. Slightly overshadowed by various matchups, this has been one of the more exciting matchups. The unique part of this matchup? Each team has gotten their victories at home. With the Magic as 3.5-point favorites at home against Cleveland, will they be allowed to force a game 7?
With a 6-4 record against Orlando over their last ten meetings, the Cavaliers are coming off an exhilarating 104-103 victory against the Magic at home. Thanks to a last-minute block by big man Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers were able to stave off a Magic victory. Even with a last-second bucket by Paolo Banchero, the Magic couldn't hold on. Dominated in the paint and fast break points, Orlando shot just 9-31 (29 percent) from beyond the arc. Their seven missed shots from the charity stripe didn't help their cause.
With both teams limited offensively, the Cavaliers and Magic showed signs of life in game 5. With the regular season series tied 2-2, I fully expected this first round to be a dogfight. Paolo Banchero led the Magic with 39 points, and Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs were the only players to score in double figures. While Orlando's bench added a monumental spark with 30 points, Wagner struggled from the field, hitting 3-11 of his shots.
CLEVELAND HOLDS A 3-2 SERIES LEAD
For the Cavaliers, guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell stepped up with a combined 51 points, on 18-39 field goal shooting. Although the Cavaliers had a repeat poor shooting performance (43.2 field goal %), it was Max Strus who stepped up the most. With 16 points, six rebounds, five assists, and two steals, Strus provided a much-needed spark after stretches of inconsistency.
With tip-off set to begin at 7 p.m. ET, Orlando will look to stay alive and avoid elimination. 3-0 against the spread in games three, four, and five, the Magic are once again favorites at home. With several players listed out for the Cavaliers, Jarrett Allen and Gary Harris are both listed as game time decisions.
Let's dive into how to bet on tonight's game, where I've compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Friday, May 3.
GAME 6: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. ORLANDO MAGIC FAN DUEL ODDS FOR MAY 3
MONEY LINE
- CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: +142
- ORLANDO MAGIC:-168
SPREAD
- CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: +3.5 (-106)
- ORLANDO MAGIC: -3.5 (-114)
OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)
- OVER: 200.5 (-112)
- UNDER: 200.5 (-108)
BEST ODDS FOR CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. ORLANDO MAGIC GAME 6
- BetMGM currently has the best Orlando Magic money line odds at -165.
- The Orlando Magic are 3.5 point favorites against the Cleveland Cavaliers . FanDuel currently has the best odds currently at -114.
- The Cleveland Cavaliers are the underdogs by 3.5 points to cover the spread tonight. DraftKings currently has the best odds at -112 for Orlando to cover the spread.
- FanDuel and DraftKings currently have the best odds for the total, which is set at -108 for the over and -108 for the under (200.5).
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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. ORLANDO MAGIC INJURY REPORT
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS INJURY REPORT
- G: CRAIG PORTER, OUT: ANKLE
- G: TY JEROME, OUT: ANKLE
- F: DEAN WAGE, OUT: KNEE
- C: JARRETT ALLEN, QUESTIONABLE: RIBS
ORLANDO MAGIC INJURY REPORT
- G: GARY HARRIS, QUESTIONABLE: HAMSTRING
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS
- *ATS = Against the Spread
- *O/U = Over/Under
- Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Last 5 Games: 3-2
Last 10 Games: 5-5
Season ATS Record: 40-47-0
Season O/U Record: 42-44-1
Last 5 Games ATS: 2-3
Last 10 Games ATS: 4-6
Last 5 Games O/U: 2-3
Last 10 Games O/U: 5-5
Offensive Rating (Rank): 98.9 (15)
Defensive Rating (Rank): 107.4 (4)
Points Per Game (Rank): 93.8 (14)
Pace (Rank): 94.40 (T-7)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank): 101 (5)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank): 28.7 % (15)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank): 40.4 (14)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins: LA Clippers (+4), Indiana (-2.5), Orlando (-5.5, -5.5)
ORLANDO MAGIC POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS
- *ATS = Against the Spread
- *O/U = Over/Under
- Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Last 5 Games: 2-3
Last 10 Games: 4-6
Season ATS Record: 54-33-0
Season O/U Record: 39-48-9
Last 5 Games ATS: 3-2
Last 10 Games ATS: 5-5
Last 5 Games O/U: 2-3
Last 10 Games O/U: 2-3
Offensive Rating (Rank): 107.4 (13)
Defensive Rating (Rank): 98.9 (2)
Points Per Game (Rank): 101 (12)
Pace (Rank): 94.40 (T-7)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank): 93.8 (3)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank): 30.7 % (13)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank): 43.6 (7)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins: Chicago (-7.5), Milwaukee (-6), Cleveland (-3, -2.5, +4.5)
HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: CAVALIERS VS. MAGIC
Season Matchups:
- Game 1: Cleveland 121, Orlando 111 (Cleveland -4.5, Over 225.5)
- Game 2: Orlando 104, Cleveland 94 (Orlando -2.5, Under 225.5)
- Game 3: Cleveland 126, Orlando 99 (Cleveland -2.5, Over 215)
- Game 4: Orlando 116, Cleveland 109 (Orlando +5.5, Over 214)
- Game 1 Playoffs: Cleveland 97, Orlando 83 (Cleveland -5.5, Under 206.5)
- Game 2 Playoffs: Cleveland 96, Orlando 86 (Cleveland -5.5, Under 205)
- Game 3 Playoffs: Orlando 121, Cleveland 83 (Orlando -3, Over 202)
- Game 4 Playoffs: Orlando 112, Cleveland 89 (Orlando -2.5, Under 202)
- Game 5 Playoffs: Cleveland 104, Orlando 103 (Orlando +4.5, O 203)
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SPREAD: ORLANDO MAGIC -3.5 (-114 FANDUEL)
Similar to my last article, this was a difficult bet to make. Sweating out the Magic 4.5 point spread as underdogs was a sweat fest to put it lightly. In fact, if it wasn't for Paolo Banchero's meaningless three-pointer at the buzzer, it would've been a push. So I have to say, thank you Banchero for the last second bucket to guarantee our cash out last game.
On a more serious note, it's now or never for the Magic. Down 3-2, they have the best advantage, and that's home court advantage. While I normally take that too much into account, home court advantage has been advantageous for both teams. With the Cavaliers and Magics losses all coming on the road, it's time for Orlando to show why they can advance to the Eastern Conference semi-finals for the first time since the 2009-2010 season.
For games one and two, the Magic's offense was abysmal on the road, averaging just 84.5 points. Since then, this is a squad that's put up over 100 points in three straight games, including 103 in Cleveland. Overall, this is a team that's dominating Cleveland on the rebounds, 43.6 to 40.4, and is putting up an average of seven more points a game. Although they are the younger team, they've managed to cover the spread in three straight games against Cleveland.
Many would argue that Orlando barely covered the spread, which was the case last game. However, aside from the point and rebound differential both teams are neck and neck in several statistical categories, including three-point and field goal percentage. There's a few reasons why the Magic can cover the spread tonight, which I will break down below.
THE ORLANDO MAGIC HAVE AN ELITE DEFENSE
The Magic's defense is elite, ranking second below the Boston Celtics for the best efficiency in the playoffs. No this isn't a fluke. Orlando is limiting Cleveland to just 93.8 points in the series, and are second behind the Denver Nuggets in opponent three-point percentage (28.7 %), field goal percentage (43 %), and field goal attempts (81). This is a Magic team that's held the Cavaliers to 43 percent from the field and 28.7 percent from the field.
This didn't haven by accident, they have one of the best defensive backcourts, were a top four team in the league in defending the perimeter. And the best news? They've allowed the fewest shots from beyond the arc at home this year. With several of the Magic players emphasizing how important the home crowd is, they will certainly need them tonight. The key will be limiting Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, who had a combined 18 points in game three. Aside from the restricted area, the Cavaliers haven't shot above 36 percent from the left side of the court.
The Magic are one of the most promising, youth-filled teams in the league, aside from the Thunder in the playoffs. Since the Cavaliers are running out of time with Mitchell and company, to me, there's less pressure on Orlando. Often times, teams that perform under less pressure end up making deep runs in the playoffs. A perfect example was the 2022-2023 Miami Heat squad that rolled over the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.
2-0 at home against Cleveland, the Magic have performed much more efficient down in the Sunshine state. Putting up 90 points in three games on the road, the Magic have been slightly more efficiently with 116.5 points scored at home. In addition, the shooting percentages are astronomically different, with the Magic shooting over 50 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from downtown. With significant increases in rebound, assists, and free-throw numbers, this is clearly a team that benefits from the Magic faithfuls.
Even if Jarrett Allen suits up tonight for the Cavaliers, I'm still not convinced they can cover the spread, or even flat out win. Sure, they got the game 5 victory, however their offensive production was terrible, and nine of Mitchell's 28 points came from the charity stripe.
THE MAGIC ARE 3-2 ATS IN THE PLAYOFFS
I love the production the Magic has gotten from their bench, especially at home. 54-33-0 against the spread this season, Orlando is 29-13-0 ATS at home this year. Look for Banchero and Wagner to lead the offense, while suffocating Cleveland on the defensive end. If Harris is able to play, I'm looking forward to witnessing his defense on Mitchell, and Jalen Suggs on Garland.
I do believe this will be a bloodbath tonight, with limited offense on both sides. I'm relying on Orlando's defense to pull through tonight. 21-6 as home favorites against the spread on the season, look for them to cover tonight.
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