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NBA Finals: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks: Game 3 betting predictions and odds for June 12

Publish Date: 06/12/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Celtics lead the series 2-0
  • The Dallas Mavericks are 5-3 at home in the playoffs
  • Boston is 6-0 on the road this postseason
  • Dallas has a 4-4 ATS record in 8 home playoff games

The NBA Finals are underway, and the Boston Celtics (64-18, 27-14 Away) have a 2-0 lead over the Dallas Mavericks (50-32, 25-16 Home).  In the best of seven games, the Mavericks will have home-court advantage for the next two games.

With a 105-98 victory over Dallas in game three, the Mavericks will look to stop the bleeding on the biggest stage of the year.

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Mavericks bettors, what more is there to say about star Luka Doncic? Coming off a triple-double, the Slovenian Native is averaging a remarkable 31 points, 10.5 rebounds, and six assists per game. Shooting over 50 percent from the field, he's been a consistent force for Dallas.

Tonight, the Celtics are 2.5-point underdogs on FanDuel. Undefeated with six playoff road wins, Boston will face Dallas, who have a 5-3 record at home in the postseason.

THE CELTICS  BETTING ODDS TO WIN THE NBA TITLE ARE -770

Yet to break 100 points in the post season, the Mavericks are facing a -25 point differential against the Celtics over the first two matchups.

  • Crushed 107-89 in game one, Dallas managed to pull within seven points in game two.
  • Hitting just 16-24 from the charity stripe, it was was an achievable victory.
  • Tallying up 15 turnovers, the Celtics capitalized with 21 points in return.

Although the Mavericks starting five reached points in double figures,  they went cold beyond the arc, shooting just 23.1 percent from downtown. With Doncic leading the way with 32 points, no other starter reached nor surpasses 20 points.

For the Celtics, Payton Pritchards exhilarating buzzer beater at the end of the third quarter rocked the TD Garden. Led by Jrue Holiday with 26 points, the guard finished with 11 rebounds and was swarming on the defensive end.

Although Jayson Tatum continues to struggle on the offensive end, he impacts the game by just making his presence on the court. Often drawing attention, Tatum's been a monster on the boards, and facilitating the ball.

Similar to the Mavericks, Boston didn't have impressive numbers from the floor, shooting 25.6 percent from beyond the arc, and 45.2 percent from the floor. While there is plenty of talent and offensive between the two teams, the Celtics defense will ultimately dictate the game.

THE CELTICS ARE NOT FULLY HEALTHY

Luckily for Dallas, Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis suffered a rare injury to his left ankle, one that could determine the series. Motivated to play, Porzingis remains questionable for game three.

Although the Celtics breezed by the Cavaliers and Pacers without him, the center put up 20 points, six rebounds, and three blocks in 21 minutes of game one. If he's unable to suit up, Dallas could take advantage in the front court.

Tip off is set to take place at 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center, located in Dallas, Texas. I've broken down the betting odds, statistics, and analysis to make informed betting decisions for Wednesday, June 12.

  • If you're looking to watch the matchup, it will air on ABC.  All of my bets will be placed on the FanDuel Sportsbook app.

Who will raise the Larry O'Brien Trophy in the end? Let's discuss and break it down if you're looking to bet on the NBA Finals.

Looking to bet on FanDuel? Click here to read about the sportsbook and app. 

BOSTON CELTICS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS FAN DUEL ODDS FOR JUNE 6

MONEY LINE

  • BOSTON CELTICS: +122
  • DALLAS MAVERICKS -44

SPREAD

  • BOSTON CELTICS: +2.5 (-108)
  • DALLAS MAVERICKS: -2.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 213.5 (-110)
  • UNDER: 213.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS

  • FanDuel currently has the best Mavericks money line odds at -144
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  • The Dallas Mavericks are 2.5 point favorites against the Boston Celtics. BetMGM currently has the best odds currently at -110.
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  • The Boston Celtics  are the underdogs by 2.5 points to cover the spread tonight.
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  • DraftKings currently has the best odds at -112 for Boston to cover the spread
  • DraftKings currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -108 for the over (213.5), and Caesars for the under at -105 (213.5).
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BOSTON CELTICS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

BOSTON CELTICS  INJURY REPORT

  • C, Kristaps Porzingis: Questionable: Lower leg

DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

  • G, Luka Doncic: Questionable: Chest
  • F Greg Brown III, Out: Personal

BOSTON CELTICS POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Statistic Value
Last 5 Games 5-0
Last 10 Games 9-1
Season ATS Record 49-43-6
Season O/U Record 50-46-2
Last 5 Games ATS 2-2-1
Last 10 Games ATS 3-6-1
Last 5 Games O/U 2-3
Last 10 Games O/U 5-5
Offensive Rating (Rank) 118.7 (2)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 107.6 (3)
Points Per Game (Rank) 110.7 (2)
Pace (Rank) 92.62 (12)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 100.3 (3)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 36.2% (6)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 43.8 (3)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Cleveland (-7.5), Indiana (-9), Dallas (-6.5)

DALLAS MAVERICKS  POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Statistic Value
Last 5 Games 2-3
Last 10 Games 6-4
Season ATS Record 59-41-1
Season O/U Record 45-56-0
Last 5 Games ATS 2-2-1
Last 10 Games ATS 5-4-1
Last 5 Games O/U 2-3
Last 10 Games O/U 5-5
Offensive Rating (Rank) 113.6 (7)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 111.2 (8)
Points Per Game (Rank) 107.5 (6)
Pace (Rank) 93.62 (8)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 104.1 (6)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 36.1% (7)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 43.1 (4)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins OKC (+4.5), Minnesota (+5, +6, -1.5, +5)

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: MAVERICKS VS. CELTICS

Season Matchups:

  • Game 1: Jan 5: Boston 124, Dallas 95 (Boston -3, Under 231.5)
  • Game 2: Jan 22: Boston 119, Dallas 110 (Boston -2.5, Under 240.5)
  • Game 3: Mar 1: Boston 138, Dallas 110 (Boston -8,5, Over 237)
  • Playoffs game 1: Boston 107, Dallas 89 (Boston -6.5, Under 216)
  • Playoffs game 2: Boston 105, Dallas 98 (Push -7, Under 214)
  • O/U last 10 matchups: 2-7-1
  • Celtics have a 6-4 record in the last 10 meeting vs the Mavericks

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SPREAD: DALLAS MAVERICKS -2.5

  • -114 FanDuel

The Dallas Mavericks head home down 2-0 against the Celtics. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit, in which Dallas must avoid tonight. A motivation to kick start their offense, Kyrie Irving said it best, the Mavericks simply cannot score right now.

Unable to crack 100 points, the Mavericks are shooting an atrocious 24.5 percent from deep,  65.1 percent from the free-throw line, and 44.5 percent from the floor. Although the Mavericks haven't performed much better at home in the playoffs (5-3 record), one must think the offense will click behind the home crowd.

With a 4-4 against the spread record at home this postseason, Dallas will surely put up a fight tonight. It's surely not a Monday night in Charlotte, this is the NBA Finals, the biggest stage of the year.

  • Some are wondering how Dallas reached the Finals, however, let's take a look at their path to get here. At -114 odds, I like the value for the Mavericks to cover for several reasons.
  • The Mavericks found themselves down 1-0 against both the Clippers and Thunder in the first two rounds and came back.

With a 8-3 record against the Thunder the Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas has now faced three of the four top defenses in the entire NBA. We also can't forget the Mavericks covered in four of the five matchups against Minnesota, three of which they were considered underdogs.

If you didn't know, the Timberwolves held the top defensive rating in the NBA, backed behind defensive player of the year, Rudy Gobert.

CAN KYRIE IRVING STEP UP TONIGHT?

Yes, the Mavericks are the ones to blame, especially not topping 70 percent at the charity stripe. There's no excuse for the way they've performed, and that starts with Kyrie Irving. Averaging an underwhelming 14 points through two games, this is a man that hit a finals game winning shot over Steph Curry in the 2016 finals.

Putting up 27 points at home, I expect Irving to navigate this Celtics defense, and step up tonight.

Although the Celtics ran away with game two, we can't forget this was a five point game in which P.J Washington was blocked from behind by Derrick White. Instead of being awarded free-throws, the Celtics were granted the defensive block.

While it's still up for debate, a foul on Jaylen Brown would've awarded Dallas an additional free-throws. Combine that with preferable shooting by the Mavericks, game two could've gone either way. Also, in the history of the NBA, there's only been a sweep eight times. With less than 10 percent chance to achieve that, now is the time to bet on the Mavericks.

THE MAVERICKS ARE A MORE EFFICIENT TEAM AT HOME

Statistically speaking, the odds are in the Mavericks favor, although not by much. Slightly more efficient on the offensive end, Dallas and company puts up 107.5 points in eight home games, compared to 105.6 in 11 playoff road games.

With shooting percentages similar at home, they've hovered around 74.1 percent from the charity stripe.

Sure, it's intimidating the Celtics haven't lost since May, and are 6-0 on the road. However, there's a change in production offensively on the road. Averaging 6.4 points less away from the home crowd, Boston has significantly lower shooting percentages all the way around (except free-throws).

As dominant as they are, is it time to worry about Jayson Tatum? Having been in this year's MVP conversation with 26.9 points per game, he looks a bit lost. A force on both the boards and dimes, Tatum couldn't buy a bucket. Through the first two games, the Celtics star is averaging 17 points on 31.6 percent field goal percentage, and 28.6 percent from deep.

  • Uncharacteristic from the star, Tatum has a career average of 27 points in 38 games at American Airlines center.

In addition to Tatum's struggles, Horford, White, and Jaylen Brown combined just 6-18 from three, in which White and Brown didn't have their best offensive games.

THE DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL NEED TO TAKE OF A POTENTIALLY THIN CELTICS FRONT COURT

Sure, Boston may not need Tatum to step up offensively, especially with the Mavericks equally struggling. However, it's the NBA Finals, and he will need to at some point. Combine that with the injury of Kristaps Porzingis, who's come off the bench for the first two for Boston.

Questionable to suit up for tonight's matchup, that would leave Boston a enormous disadvantage. With an already thin front court, Joe Mazzulla may rely on Luke Kornet, or even Xavier Tillman to back up Al Hoford.

With the the Mavericks additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, that might be an issue for the Celtics in the paint and on the glass.

Without Porzingis, the Celtics will miss a key player who has a +25 on the floor through games. Not fully healthy, the Mavericks will be forced to attack that weak spot.

If the Mavericks want to cover the spread tonight, they must capitalize in the front court, and attack Al Horford  where they can.

Without that rim protection, now is the time for Dallas to avoid a 3-0 series deficit and get back into this series. With -146 money line favorites to win this game, now is the time for Dallas to cover the spread against the Celtics for the first time since 2022.

  • With arguably the best backcourt in the NBA, the Mavericks should and will be motivated to take a game here from Boston.

Although their shooting percentages are down, this is a team that ranks top 10 in the playoffs with 36.1 three-point percentage, and are top five on the glass. One of the least efficient teams in the first half, Dallas must come up with a way to respond tonight.

FINAL CELTICS VS. BETTING PREDICTION: MAVERICKS -2.5 (-114)

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