Celtics vs. Nuggets Betting Predictions and Odds for Mar. 7

It's Thursday, and the NBA is featuring a highly anticipated late-night matchup scheduled to broadcast on TNT.  The reigning champions, the Denver Nuggets (42-20, 24-6 at home), will host the formidable Boston Celtics (48-13, 19-10 on the road) in what promises to be a clash of elite teams in the league.

• Seeking redemption, the Celtics are aiming to bounce back from a heartbreaking 102-101 loss suffered against Denver on Jan. 19 in Boston
• Despite holding a commanding 61-55 halftime lead, the Nuggets narrowed the gap and clinched victory with a crucial free-throw shot just 17 seconds before the game ended
• After a surprising 105-104 loss, surrendering a 22-point lead to the Cavaliers, Boston heads into this game following the end of an 11-game winning streak

Despite having the top win/loss record in the NBA, the Celtics are now on their second game of a five-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, sitting in the third position in the Western Conference, are recovering from a tough 119-111 overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns.

 (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images)

Thursday's game between the Celtics and Nuggets promises excitement as it wraps up their regular-season series. With the playoffs approaching, some bettors see this as a potential NBA finals preview. The Celtics are currently favored to win the NBA championship on DraftKings with +210 odds, while the Denver Nuggets trail closely behind at +420 odds.

Like the Celtics, the Nuggets have an impressive home record, having suffered only six losses at Ball Arena. With both teams boasting a 4-1 record in their last five games, this matchup is expected to exude a playoff atmosphere and intensity.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, Sara Jane has compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Thursday, March 7th.

Odds are current as of Mar. 7, at 10:00 a.m. ET (updated)

SJ's NBA record this month: 11-7

BOSTON CELTICS VS. DENVER NUGGETS DRAFTKINGS ODDS FOR MAR. 7

MONEY LINE

• BOSTON CELTICS: -105
• DENVER NUGGETS: -115

SPREAD

• BOSTON CELTICS: +1.5 (-115)
• DENVER NUGGETS: -1.5 (-105)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER: 221 (-105)
• UNDER: 221 (-115)

BEST ODDS FOR BOSTON CELTICS VS. DENVER NUGGETS

• DraftKings currently has the best Celtics money line odds at -120
• The Boston Celtics are -1.5 favorites against Denver Nuggets. DraftKings currently has the best odds currently at -110
• The Denver Nuggets are the underdogs by +1.5 to cover the spread tonight. Again, DraftKings currently has the best odds at -110 for Denver to cover the spread
• DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -110 (221.5)

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BOSTON CELTICS AND DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

• C, NEEMIAS QUETA, OUT (RIGHT KNEE SORENESS)
• G, JAYLEN BROWN, QUESTIONABLE (SACROILIAC STRAIN)

DENVER NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

• SF, VLATKO CANCAR, OUT (KNEE SURGERY)

BOSTON CELTIC'S SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under

DENVER NUGGETS SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

*ATS = Against the Spread
*O/U = Over/Under

SPREAD: Denver Nuggets +1.5

Currently, the Denver Nuggets are underdogs by +1.5 points, but I anticipate this may shift, possibly in their favor. The Nuggets hold home court advantage and a 2-0 record against the Celtics in their recent matchups.

Despite the Celtics being the top team in the NBA, they face the Nuggets on the second game of a challenging road trip after a tough loss to Cleveland.

In fact, I didn't delve into the money line due to the expected tightness of the matchup. Despite the slim spread of 1.5 points, it's worth noting the Nuggets' previous victory over the Celtics by a narrow margin of 102-100 in January. If forced to choose a money line, I would lean towards Boston.

In terms of statistical comparison, the Celtics excel as one of the top teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency, whereas the Denver Nuggets rank slightly lower in these categories.

However, the Nuggets still maintain a strong presence, ranking within the top ten in both defense and offense. Their recent record of 4-1 in the last five games underscores their competitiveness.

Despite two home losses since mid-February, the Nuggets boast an impressive home record of 24-6, having not lost at home since their matchup against the Orlando Magic on January 5th.

Denver had a hot streak towards the end of Feb.

Denver, like Boston, has won six of their last seven games, defeating teams such as Washington, Portland, Golden State, Sacramento, Miami, and the LA Lakers.

While Boston has an impressive record of 11-1 in their last twelve games, their upcoming road matchups against Cleveland, Denver, and Phoenix pose a significant challenge. Despite their recent dominant performance, the Celtics may face difficulties on the road against tough opponents.

In total, Denver has a record of 27-34-1 against the spread for this season, and they are 5-5 in their last ten games. Following a failure to cover against the Phoenix Suns, they will take a day to regroup.

Historically, with just one day's rest, Denver has performed well with a record of 24-10, averaging 115.5 points per game.

Additionally, both the Celtics and the Nuggets boast two of the NBA's top starting lineups. Similar to the Nuggets, Boston has a strong record of 25-10 on one day of rest, averaging an impressive 1117.7 points per game.

While the Celtics are averaging seven points more per game, they have been restricted to 118 points on the road. Conversely, Denver averages 118.1 points at home, shooting at an efficient 50.5 percent from the field.

Nikola Jokic is favored the win the NBA MVP at -155 odds on DraftKings

During their recent hot streak, the Nuggets have seen enhanced performances from Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, complementing the stellar play of Nikola Jokic. Porter Jr. has been particularly impressive, demonstrating his scoring ability with notable outings of 20 points against the Suns, 25 against the Lakers, and 30 against Miami, showcasing some of his best basketball of the season.

Favored to win the MVP with -155 odds, Jokic delivered an impressive performance against Boston earlier this season, tallying 34 points, 9 assists, and 12 rebounds while shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc.

His consistent near-triple-double performances over the last ten games make him a formidable force that's difficult to contain.

Additionally, Jamal Murray has shown solidity, notably contributing 25 points against the Suns and 35 against the Lakers in his recent performances. Let's not overlook Murray's impressive 34-point outing against the Celtics at the TD Garden earlier this season.

While I believe the C's have the best starting five, no one has more fluidity and chemistry than Denver. Overall, they are 14-16-0 against the spread at home, and have a starting unit that is a force to be reckoned with.

Denver has covered the spread vs. strong opponents

Despite neither Denver nor the Celtics having a stellar record when it comes to covering the spread, particularly on the road for the Celtics (12-14-3), recent trends and matchups against teams over .500 are crucial considerations.

Over the past ten games, the Nuggets have notably covered against formidable opponents such as the Los Angeles Lakers on the road, as well as against the Heat, Kings, and Warriors.

In addition to covering against teams with above .500 records, the Nuggets have also managed to cover against Milwaukee and Oklahoma City since mid-January.

Despite their recent loss to Phoenix, the Nuggets have showcased dominance towards the end of February. Over a six-game win streak during that period, Denver accumulated an impressive +88-point differential, averaging +14.6 points per game.

Notably, they defeated the Lakers by 10 points, the Kings by 21 points, and Golden State by 16 points. This impressive performance sets the stage for another challenging matchup against the top team in the Eastern Conference.

Nuggets covered the spread in the last two games vs. Celtics

Overall, the Celtics have faced challenges from only a handful of teams, considering their low 13-loss record for the season. Denver is among those teams, alongside Cleveland, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Orlando, Indiana, Golden State, Milwaukee, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Oklahoma City, and Charlotte.

Remarkably, all but one of these teams are above .500, with some positioned near the top of their respective conferences. Additionally, it's worth noting that Boston was favored in all but one of these losses, resulting in an 0-13 record against the spread in every defeat.

In their last two matchups against Boston, the Nuggets emerged victorious, covering the spread in both instances, notably with a +7 differential on Jan 19.

While Boston holds a 6-4-0 record against the spread in their last ten games against the Nuggets, Denver boasts a total spread advantage of +14 over the past two meetings.

On Jan 19, the Nuggets limited the Celtics to just 42.7 percent shooting from the floor and 31.8 percent from beyond the arc, unusual numbers for Boston. Jayson Tatum struggled, shooting just 9-24 from the field, including 1-8 from three-point range.

Although I anticipate Boston will shoot better in the upcoming game, the Denver Nuggets have proven their ability to counter the Boston Celtics' playing style effectively. Additionally, besides Kristaps Porzingis, is there anyone truly capable of handling Jokic?

TOTAL: OVER 221.5 (-110 DRAFTKINGS)

For those considering betting on the over/under (total) for this matchup, it's crucial to note that the line may shift, especially with potential injuries. The line was observed at 221.5 mid-Wednesday afternoon, which appears relatively low.

In recent matchups between the Celtics and the Nuggets, the over hit in just three of the last seven games.

Boston holds a record of 28-32-1 against totals, while Denver stands at 22-39-1. Although the "under" seems like a safer bet, understanding line movements is essential.

Combining the averages of both teams yields 235.4 points per game. Despite a recent game hitting the under at 202 total points, this was influenced by Boston's key player Tatum's struggle and the team's overall shooting performance. While expecting a relatively low-scoring game, it's anticipated that both teams will surpass the current total line.

Both teams rank in the top ten defensively, with Boston allowing 104.7 points per game and Denver allowing 109.8 over their last ten matchups. However, this equates to 214.5 points per game, still below the line.

Notably, the under for this total has hit only four of Denver's last ten games, while Boston has seen the under in 50 percent of their last ten games.

In the last 15 games, the over hit just five times for Denver and six times for Boston. However, both teams have showcased impressive offensive performances recently, with Boston averaging 123 points and Denver averaging 114 over their last five games, resulting in a combined total of 237 points.

Overall, both teams are known for their slower pace and rank highly defensively and offensively. This highly anticipated rematch promises a fiercely contested battle, likely to be closely fought until the end. Therefore, I lean towards betting over 221.5 points.

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