Chiefs Super Bowl 61 Odds Change After Kenneth Walker Signing, Kelce News

The Kansas City Chiefs seem to be reloading, not rebuilding. The team reportedly agreed to the signing of free agent running back Kenneth Walker III today, while it was also revealed a future Hall of Famer will once again be a Chief next season.

BetMGM moved the Chiefs in recent days amid rumors that Travis Kelce would return, shortening odds on KC to win the next Super Bowl to +1500. At DraftKings, odds on the Chiefs to Win the Super Bowl are now +1400, down from +1500, following the news that Walker is joining the roster.

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Kelce will be back for a 14th season as tight end for Kansas City, according to reporting by ESPN. He is a favorite target of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The pals have won three Super Bowls in the red and yellow of the Chiefs.

Walker won the Most Valuable Player Award in Super Bowl LX a month ago for the Seattle Seahawks. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry in his fourth season for Seattle, and scored five touchdowns. In the Super Bowl, Walker gained 135 yards on 27 carries. He is considered a rugged runner who can take a heavy workload. Walker will turn 26 in October.

Kelce's best seasons are behind him, and he hasn't seen age 26 in a decade. That makes him a geezer by NFL standards. He only scored five touchdowns last season, when the Chiefs failed to make the playoffs.

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Latest Odds for Super Bowl 61

The Los Angeles Rams, who have talent across their roster and the current league MVP in QB Matthew Stafford, are priced as favorites to win the Super Bowl next February by DraftKings.

• Rams ... +800
• Seahawks ... +900
• Bills ... +950
• Ravens ... +950
• Eagles ... +1400
• Chiefs ... +1400
• Packers ... +1400
• Chargers ... +1500
• Lions ... +1600
• 49ers ... +1800
• Patriots ... +1800
• Texans ... +1900

Last weekend, the Baltimore Ravens acquired defensive end Maxx Crosby, a move that boosted its odds to win the Super Bowl. The NFL free agent season will shift odds in March, though changes on the odds board are usually subtle. Odds are also impacted critically by how much money is wagered on teams in the Super Bowl market.

Walker's exit from Seattle did not shift odds on the Seahawks to repeat as champions. But his absence will be difficult, especially considering complementary RB Zach Charbonnet is injured and his status is in doubt for the Seahawks for the start of the 2026-27 season.

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How important is Kelce at this stage of his career?

Whether Kelce's return will be a big impact for the Chiefs depends on whom you ask. Fans will be happy to see soon-to-be "Mr. Taylor Swift" back on the field. But, Kelce's skills have been waning for three seasons. It's been that long since he recorded 1,000+ yards receiving. Even his TD catches, which were crucial weapons for Mahomes when the team was winning titles, are rare. Kelce has scored just 13 TDs the last three seasons, after averaging 11 the previous three years.

Most troubling is the fact that Kelce is not getting down the field like he once did. According to Average Depth of Target, Kelce's figure has shrunk to under 7 yards in each of the last three seasons. In his prime, Kelce was getting down field 8-10 yards on average for his catches. That means Mahomes is dumping the ball to Kelce now, rather than going deep to move the chains or threaten for a score.

Kelce will turn 37 early in the next season. He has never been considered a dominant blocking threat. He's certainly not on the level of George Kittle in that skill, for example. That means his return could be more ceremonial than anything. He's not a downfield threat, not a physical presence as a run or pass blocker, and he takes more plays off than ever.

Kenneth Walker III can transform the Chiefs' offense

Walker is a "downhill" runner, as they say. He doesn't spend a lot of time trying to make a defender miss, preferring to wait for a hole, stutter-stepping to slide through an opening, and accelerating.

As Seahawks blogger Kenneth Arthur of Seaside Joe wrote in 2022, Walker “plays the running back position like an elite Dance Dance Revolution player. At any given moment, with each careful footstep, Walker reassesses the situation in front of him and like a great quarterback, alters the plan based on what the defense is giving him.”

That's a fine summation of his style carrying the rock. And it WILL work in Kansas City, where the offensive line needs a runner who can read the play. Last season, according to PFF, the Chiefs O-Line was in the bottom third. But that rating was painted by several injuries. Kansas City is expected to bolster the line through the upcoming NFL draft.

Not many things are certain in life. But you can almost 100 percent count on the fact that Andy Reid will draft a lineman who can run-block in the first round. Following the trade of cornerback Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs have not one, but TWO first round picks in the NFL draft.

Chiefs First Round Draft Projections

• No. 9: Mansoor Delane, DB from LSU
• No. 29: Blake Miller, OT from Clemson

Making draft predictions is folly. But, the main point is this: the Chiefs need to improve the run blocking with Walker in tow. That could also mean the team takes an offensive lineman at No. 9. Or maybe a run-blocking tight end at No. 29, as a young alternative to Kelce, who can't play forever.