LA Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks: betting odds and predictions for May 3

The Dallas Mavericks have moved in front of the LA Clippers in what's been a highly contentious first-round series in the Western Conference, and they'll now return home in hopes of closing things out and avoiding a deciding game over the weekend.

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

With Kawhi Leonard missing, LA has struggled a bit on defense, but the larger story has come on the offensive side of the ball where the Clippers' excellence hasn't been evident on account of some rough shooting nights.

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Can the Clippers find a way to knock down more shots from outside in this one, or will their struggles persist, opening the door for Dallas to continue pulling away with its excellent work down low?

Let's get into the best way to bet on Clippers vs. Mavericks on Friday, May 3.

LA CLIPPERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 3

MONEY LINE

• LA CLIPPERS: +280
• DALLAS MAVERICKS: -350

SPREAD

• LA CLIPPERS: +8 (-110)
• DALLAS MAVERICKS: -8 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER 208.5 (-110)
• UNDER 208.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR LA CLIPPERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS

• The best odds on the LA Clippers are over at Caesars, where you'll find Clippers +8.5 (-110).
• Dallas is being offered as an eight-point favorite at almost every shop, with the best odds on Mavericks -8 (-110) at DraftKings.
• The best odds on the Over are at DraftKings, offering Over 208.(-110). You'll find the best odds on the Under at Caesars, who are hanging Under 208.5 (-110).

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LA CLIPPERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

LA CLIPPERS INJURY REPORT

• KAWHI LEONARD - OUT - KNEE
• TERANCE MANN - QUESTIONABLE - LEG

DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

• TIM HARDAWAY, JR. - OUT - ANKLE

WHY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Clippers' other-worldly offense has come to a standstill in this series, but the good news here is that it's almost entirely due to their inability to knock down 3s with consistency. LA came back to life in Game 4 of this series with an exquisite 62.1% night from deep only to fall back to 25.7% and start a stunning 3-for-21 from outside.

LA has shot the 3 nearly four percentage points better on the road this season, something that was highlighted by that Game 4 explosion in Dallas. Two of its three best performances from the arc have come in the road games, and I like that trend to continue here. That split remained strong in the regular season series between these two teams as well, with the Clippers knocking down triples at a rate that was 5.2 points better.

The Clippers also managed to pull down more rebounds than the Mavericks in Game 5, something that might go a long way if their defense can return to form here. They struggled mightily down low, which is sadly something that's been a theme, but their overall defense has been perfectly acceptable in this series and they remain vigilant against the outside shot.

WHY DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

While it's encouraging for the Clippers that the Mavericks have struggled from outside, it's almost a scary thought when you consider the Mavericks do possess an excellent group of shooters and have the potential to truly break this game -- and the series -- wide open with a hot night from outside.

For now, though, let's focus on what's been winning the Mavs games and that's been some incredible production inside. They've poured in a wonderous 69.7% of shots at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass and they've coupled that with an elite 47.4% defense in the same shooting zone. They may still be struggling to rebound, something that's been a theme, but the battle on the boards has been rather even and the play on both ends of the floor in the paint has been incredibly lopsided.

FINAL CLIPPERS-MAVERICKS PICK & PREDICTION

The Mavericks may be running train on the Clippers inside, but I don't know if that's going to be enough to come away with a blowout win in a potential clinching Game 6.

Dallas has struggled against the 3 all season long, and in the final month of the regular season allowed a whopping 40.4% of shots to fall from outside, ranking 27th in the NBA over this time.

The Clippers may not have Kawhi Leonard, and that should hurt them much more on the defensive end, but they still have their full complement of shooters and should see some positive regression to the mean from outside given they've shot significantly better on the road this season. It may have been wishful thinking to expect that regression to the mean to come in a Game 5 at home, even with how poorly Dallas fares against the 3, but it should certainly come here.

With more shots falling from outside, the Clippers should be able to make this one interesting and cover a number that's far too high given the rather even nature of this series.

FINAL CLIPPERS-MAVERICKS PICK & PREDICTION: LA CLIPPERS +8.5 (-110)

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