On Tuesday, March 18, the NCAA Tournament begins with two First Four games:
- Saint Francis PA vs. Alabama State
- North Carolina vs. San Diego State
The winner of Saint Francis PA and Alabama State will go on to face the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, the Auburn Tigers, as a No. 16 seed.
As for the winner of North Carolina and San Diego State? They’ll land as a No. 11 seed to face No. 6 Ole Miss in the same region as the winner of Saint Francis PA and Alabama State.
(Photo by Jonathan Devich/Getty Images)
After these two games, we have two more First Four games on Wednesday, and then the field of 64 teams will battle it out for college basketball supremacy.
Below, we’ll look at the best bets to make for these two games today, looking at the moneyline, point spreads and some player props.
Let’s dive in, examining these two NCAA games today for the tournament.
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College Basketball Best Bets Today: Alabama State and North Carolina
College Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Alabama State ML (-178) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- TJ Madlock 9+ Rebounds (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- North Carolina -4.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Elliot Cadeau 1+ 3-Point Shot Made (-166) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Alabama State vs Saint Francis PA Best Bets
Alabama State ML (-178) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Leading off my list of the best college basketball bets today is Alabama State’s moneyline.
Heading into this matchup, Alabama State has won six in a row, beating Jackson State for the SWAC title.
They’re also the better of the two teams when comparing KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Alabama State averages 101.4 points per 100 possessions (270th) and allows 110.6 points per 100 possessions (256th)
Conversely, St. Francis averages 99.7 points per 100 possessions (299th) and allows 112.4 points per 100 possessions (293rd).
Alabama State is also a much better rebounding team, averaging 9.3 offensive rebounds (131st) per game to St. Francis’s 7.2 (306th)
Based on the offensive rebounding difference and the turnover discrepancy between Alabama State (9.2) and St. Francis (13.3), I’ll take Alabama State.
This line opened at 3.5, and I would be comfortable with that for Alabama State, but with that gone, I’ll take the moneyline.
The value isn’t fantastic, but these teams are fairly close, and there always seems to be one First Four game that comes down to the very end.
TJ Madlock 9+ Rebounds (-130) at DraftKings Sportsbook
One of the best college basketball picks today is Madlock’s rebounds.
This season, Madlock averages 7.2 rebounds per game for Alabama State, including 1.3 offensive board and 5.9 defensive.
As mentioned above, Saint Francis PA isn’t exactly the best rebounding team in the country.
Saint Francis PA averages 7.2 offensive rebounds (305th) and 22.5 defensive rebounds (203rd) per game
Additionally, Saint Francis PA allows 9.1 offensive rebounds (234th) and 23.2 defensive rebounds (220th) per game.
Over his last five games, Madlock has had nine or more rebounds in four. He fell short on March 13 against Texas Southern with eight.
Alabama State allows plenty of defensive rebounds (26.8 per game; 361st), but with how mediocre Saint Francis PA has been at corralling them, Alabama State, along with Madlock, can take advantage enough for him to get to nine boards.
San Diego State vs North Carolina Best Bets
North Carolina -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
North Carolina getting into the tournament stunned many with just a single Quad 1 win and a Quad 3 loss (Stanford).
In this game, to see who will play Ole Miss, they’ll take on San Diego State, who has three Quad 1 wins, two Quad 2 losses, and a Quad 3 loss.
The Tar Heels are solid offensively, averaging 118.9 points per 100 possessions (22nd) while surrendering 99.3 points per 100 possessions (53rd)
As for the Aztecs, they average a mere 109.8 points per 100 possessions (111th), but more than make up for it with their defense, allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions (13th).
The Aztecs could be without big man Magoon Gwath. He has missed the last five games with a hyperextended knee.
He’s a key piece to their defense, and he was named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year
Without him, North Carolina’s Ven-Allen Lubin will manage just fine.
North Carolina can get dangerous from 3-point range. They have Jae’Lyn Withers, who shoots nearly 44% from beyond the arch.
Over his last five games, he’s made 11 of 30 3-point shots
However, seven of those makes and 10 of those attempts came in one game, a win over Notre Dame.
If Gwath is out, I like North Carolina even more. If he does suit up, I’ll still lean Tar Heels.
Their offense will prove to be too much, ultimately.
Elliot Cadeau 1+ 3-Point Shot Made (-166) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Speaking of someone who can shoot the 3-point shot, my next pick for the college basketball games today is UNC guard Elliot Cadeau to hit one 3-point shot.
He’s not on the level of Withers, shooting 33.3% from 3-point range, but he’s been fairly consistent lately, making at least one 3-point shot in three of his last five games. This included three made shots on three tries in a losing effort to Duke.
Through 35 games this season, he’s had a 3-point shot in 18 of them, so just over half
Based on his recent success and his 100% 3-point shooting percentage in a big game against Duke, look for Cadeau to sink at least one for one of my favorite college basketball prop bets today.
If looking for March Madness tournament schedules, matchup breakdowns, and expert picks, head to our
March Madness section.
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