On Friday, March 14, I have four NCAA basketball picks for the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.
The games include the following:
- No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
- No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Texas
- No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 Missouri
- No. 3 Alabama vs. No.6 Kentucky
The winners of these games advance to the semifinals.
Below are my best college basketball bets today, focusing on the point spreads of each game in the SEC Tournament.
(Photo by Stew Milne/Getty Images)
College Basketball Best Bets Today: Ole Miss, Tennessee, and More
College Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Auburn -11.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Tennessee -9.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Florida -8.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kentucky +6.5 (-108) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Auburn -11.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Leading things off in my best college basketball picks for this SEC Tournament slate is Auburn.
While you could argue that Ole Miss had no business beating Arkansas, given how the end of that game went, I wouldn’t argue with you, but here we are.
With about 1:30 left, Ole Miss was up 77-76. Then, Arkansas was fouled, hit two free throws, and went up by one.
Then, to fast-forward a bit, the game was tied at 80, all with about seven seconds left.
Arkansas was fouled, had a chance at two free throws, and missed both, but Ole Miss guard Sean Pedulla ended it with a 3-point shot with 1.3 seconds left on the clock.
Now, they take on an Auburn team that they’ve lost to twice this season.
In the first game, Auburn beat them on the road 92-82. In the most recent game, on February 26, Auburn won at home 106-76.
To be fair to Ole Miss, Auburn shot the 3-ball quite well in those games, shooting 50% or better in each.
Ole Miss is top 30 in adjusted offensive (118.5) and adjusted defensive (96.6) efficiency.
Auburn is No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency (129.6) and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.8).
Ole Miss has some bigs, like Malik Dia and Jaemyn Brakefield, who can score.
However, Ole Miss doesn’t snag offensive rebounds. They average just 7.4 per game (291st).
In the end, Auburn is rested and a dominant offensive team. They’ll win this by 12 or more, but I do think it’ll be closer to this line than some may expect.
Tennessee -9.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook
While Tennessee isn’t the most exciting team on offense that’s left among these top seeds, they have a suffocating defense that’ll end this run Texas is having.
Tennessee is first in adjusted defensive efficiency, holding teams to 88 points per 100 possessions.
Texas is just above 50th in both adjusted offensive (116.2) and adjusted defensive (98.8) efficiency.
Texas is a fairly good 3-point shooting team at 36.2%, but Tennessee, again, doesn’t let teams shoot well.
Tennessee allows teams to shoot just 37.7% from the field (first) and 27.7% from 3-point range (second).
I trust this Tennessee defense. They’ll win by double digits.
Florida -8.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Of the four NCAA games today in the SEC Tournament, I went back and forth on this one the most.
For full transparency, of all these games, if you decided to stay away from this one, I wouldn’t blame you.
With the injury to Duke’s Cooper Flagg, Florida is arguably the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.
They’re fourth in adjusted offensive (126.9) and ninth in adjusted defensive (92.3) efficiency.
I get a bit scared of Missouri because they’re excellent offensively, ranking fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.4).
However, they’re not the best defensively, ranking 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency (100.6).
Missouri is a 37.2% 3-point shooting team. To win, they’ll need to get hot in this department.
If I’m Florida, I’m zeroing in on someone like Missouri guard Caleb Grill to ensure he doesn’t get hot from beyond the arch.
Ultimately, Florida is well-rested and they’re fantastic on offense and defense. I think they do just enough to squeak by.
Perhaps the “Over” at 160.5 is the play as an alternative.
Kentucky +6.5 (-108) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The first underdog is my final pick, Kentucky, at +6.5.
Like Florida and Missouri, I went back and forth on this one, but given Alabama’s defensive struggles and their last few games to end the season, I think Kentucky can hang offensively.
Alabama went 1-2 over their last three games, losing to Tennessee (79-76) and Florida (99-94).
Alabama beat Kentucky on February 22, 96-83, but Kentucky didn’t shoot well in that game.
Kentucky is actually a slightly better shooting team at 48.5% than Alabama’s 48.4%
However, in that loss, Alabama shot 52.5% from the floor compared to Kentucky’s 42.6%.
Both of these teams are in the top seven in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Kentucky will keep this close and shoot much better than their February 22 outing.
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