On Friday, March 28, day two of the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament will be played.
EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN - MARCH 09: Jaxon Kohler #0 of the Michigan State Spartans dunks the ball in front of Vladislav Goldin #50, Tre Donaldson #3, and Roddy Gayle Jr. #11 of the Michigan Wolverines during the first half of a college basketball game at Breslin Center on March 09, 2025 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
The slate includes four games, including the following:
- No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State
- No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee
- No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan
- No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston
Then, the NCAA Tournament will advance to the Elite 8 on Saturday.
Below, I’ll check in on three NCAA games for March 28 and offer up my best point spread bet for each.
Let’s check them out.
College Basketball Best Bets Today: Michigan, Michigan State, and Houston
College Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Michigan State -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Michigan +9.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Houston -7.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dive into our
best betting promotions
section to see what offers we have that you may want to utilize ahead of NCAA college basketball action.
Michigan State vs Ole Miss
Best Bet: Michigan State -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Leading things off for my best college basketball bets today is No. 2 Michigan State. They’ll take on No. 6 Ole Miss, which is one of the more well-balanced teams in the NCAA Tournament.
The winner of this game will face the winner of Auburn and Michigan.
Michigan State has one of the best defenses in college basketball, allowing just 90.4 points per 100 possessions.
Conversely, Ole Miss surrenders 95.5 (21st).
Offensively, Michigan State and Ole Miss are identical, putting up 118.8 points per 100 possessions.
Michigan State is coming off a 71-63 win over New Mexico and overcame a halftime deficit.
As for Ole Miss, they were sensational against Iowa State. Five players logged double-digit points and the team shot over 58% from the floor and 57.9% from 3-point range.
That’s well above where they’re at throughout this season, though.
Ole Miss is a 44.6% shooting team (158th) and 34.8% from 3-point range (122nd).
Ole Miss will also have to contend with the best 3-point shooting defense in the country, as Michigan State allows teams to shoot just 27.8% from beyond the arc.
I expect some regression in this game from Ole Miss against the Spartans stout defense.
This number was -3, which I prefer, but I’ll still lean toward them at -3.5 and still consider the Spartans one of my favorite college basketball bets today.
Auburn vs Michigan Best Bets
Best Bet: Michigan +9.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Auburn beat Alabama State by 20 in the Round of 64 and followed that up with an 82-70 win over No. 9 Creighton.
Now, they’ll face Michigan, a team that was a popular pick to be upset. Now, they’ve beaten UC San Diego 68-65 and Texas A&M 91-79.
The Wolverines are 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 117.0 points per 100 possessions.
Defensively, they allow 93.6 points per 100 possessions (13th).
Of course, they’ll do battle with the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, Auburn.
Auburn is KenPom’s No. 4 overall team with 128.3 points per 100 possessions (3rd) and giving up 93.3 points per 100 possessions (12th).
While these teams are close in adjusted defensive efficiency, Michigan stands out in one particular area that could prove to be problematic for Auburn.
Against 2-point shots, they only allow opponents to shoot 46.0%.
That’s the 13th best in the country.
A big part of Auburn’s game is big-man and John R. Wooden Award candidate Johni Broome.
I think they’ll slow him down enough to keep this within single digits and cover the spread.
Houston vs Purdue Best Bets
Best Bet: Houston -8.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
This season, the Houston Cougars are averaging just 74.5 points per game (126th), but have performed better than that in each game, beating No. 16 SIU Edwardsville 78-40. They followed that up with an 81-76 win over Gonzaga in the Round of 32.
The Cougars are 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency with 123.8 points per 100 possessions.
However, where Houston shines is defensively.
They’re KenPom’s No. 1 defense in adjusted defensive efficiency, giving up a mere 88.0 points per 100 possessions.
That’ll come in handy against Purdue, who scores 124.4 points per 100 possessions (7th).
In this game, I’m going with Houston. Not only are they stalwarts on defense, but they’ve been playing well offensively during this tournament. Against Gonzaga, they shot 29 of 62 from the floor (46.8%) and 50% from 3-point range (50%).
This season, Houston is holding opponents to a 38.4% shooting percentage (third), 30.6% from 3-point range (25th), and 44.3% on 2-point shots (5th).
The Cougars will win this by double digits and move on to play the winner of Kentucky and Tennessee.
A game against Tennessee would be a defensive showdown.
If you're looking for March Madness tournament schedules, matchup breakdowns, and expert picks, visit our
March Madness section.
BALLISLIFE.COM
