On Tuesday, March 11, conference tournaments around the country continue to unfold. For many, March 11 is the start of the tournament.
For others, like the Sun Belt, Patriot, and Horizon Conferences, they've started as early as March 4.
(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
As we inch closer to Selection Sunday, these games could help determine the fate of many NCAA Tournament hopefuls.
- Below are my three best bets for today's action:
Vermont, Northwestern State, and Pittsburgh.
See my picks and the best places to bet on them below.
College Basketball Best Bets Today: Vermont, Pitt, and More
College Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Vermont ML (-166) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Northwestern State +17.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Pittsburgh -3.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Maine vs Vermont
- Best Bet:
Vermont ML (-166) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Kicking off my best college basketball bets today is Vermnot’s moneyline of -166. Maine and Vermont both played this past Saturday.
Vermont defeated New Hampshire (64-57), while Maine took down UMass Lowell (72-64). Heading into this game, neither Maine nor Vermont is exactly a high-scoring team.
Maine averages 69.7 (267th) points, while Vermont is even lower at 65.3 (339th) points
That said, both teams are inside the top 50 in points allowed. Vermont leads the way, allowing just 65.2 points (21st), compared to Maine’s 67.6 (48th).
To further illustrate how close these teams are in some ways, they’re nearly the same in adjusted offensive and defensive rating, which shows points scored per 100 possessions and points allowed per 100 possessions, respectively.
Maine gives up 106.1 points per 100 possessions(149th), while Maine surrenders 106.3 (152nd)
Now, here’s where things begin to change slightly. Maine is the better shooting team, whether it’s 2-point or 3-point shots, but Vermont is the better defensive unit.
The Catamounts hold opponents to a 3-point shooting percentage of 33.3% (144th) and an overall shooting percentage of 42.5% (86th).
Vermont is also superior on the boards, especially defensive rebounds
Maine averages just 5.5 offensive rebounds per game (354th). Ultimately, I’ll side with Vermont, the home team.
They have,
- Sam Alamutu (averages 6.1 rebounds per game)
- Ileri Ayo-Faleye (averages 2.0 blocks per game)
- TJ Hurley (averages 16.1 points per game)
Take the moneyline, though.
Northwestern State vs McNeese
- Best Bet:
Northwestern State +17.5 (-110) at BetMGM
The largest college basketball point spread today is Northwestern State at +17.5 and I’m taking them.
You can look up and down the stat sheets, and there’s no question that McNeese is far and away the better team.
That said, I think there’s something to be said about how fresh a team is, and that’s why I’ll take Northwestern State +17.5.
McNeese hasn’t played since March 3, while Northwestern State played yesterday against the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders and beat them 66-63.
So, McNeese may be rested, but they haven’t played in eight days.
For Northwestern State to have a chance, they’ll have to shoot threes exceedingly well.
Northwestern State shoots 35.2% from 3-point range (101st), while McNeese is slightly ahead at 35.4%.
This is their best shot, as McNeese holds the team to a shooting percentage of just 40.4% (19th). However, they’re a bit more vulnerable against 3-point shots, allowing a percentage of 32.4% (98th).
It’s also worth noting that Northwestern State is 17-11-1 against the spread (60.7%).
They’re even better on the road at 11-5 (68.8%).
Again, McNeese dominates in many facets, but there’s a chance that Northwestern State will be able to make enough threes to keep this within 17.
They have two players with a 3-point shooting percentage of 40% or better.
Look for McNeese to come out the gate slowly, allowing Northwestern State to hang around a bit.
Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame
- Best Bet:
Pittsburgh -3.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook
For my final college basketball spread betting pick, I’m leaning with Pitt on the road.
Looking into these teams' records against the spread, I won’t bury the lede—neither is that good.
Overall, both teams are 13-17-1 against the spread
At home, Notre Dame is 6-10.
On the road, Pitt is 3-9. Even further, as a road favorite, they’re 0-5.
Notre Dame and Pitt last played on February 22, and Notre Dame won 76-72 at home
So, why am I taking Pitt?
Despite the recent loss, I think Pitt is the better team.
Notre Dame does have Markus Burton, who averages 22.2 points per game, but Pitt has a dynamic duo of Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett, who each average more than 16 points per game.
Looking at the KenPom rankings, Pittsburgh allows 103.1 points per 100 possessions (94th)
Conversely, Notre Dame is at 105.6 (139th).
On the offensive side of the ball, Pittsburgh is significantly better per 100 possessions. Pittsburgh is at 117 points per 100 possessions (36th) compared to Notre Dame’s 113 (77th).
Further, Pitt commits fewer turnovers per game at 9.9 to Notre Dame’s 11.1.
Look for Pitt to snag a few extra possessions and their defense to do just enough to cover this line of -3.5 in a game that not many may expect them to cover.
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