On Wednesday, March 19, the final First Four games will be played.
The games include the following:
- Mount St. Mary’s vs American
- Texas vs Xavier
The winner of Mount St. Mary’s and American will go on to face the No. 1 seed, Duke.
As for the winner of Texas and Xavier? They’ll land as a No. 11 seed to face No. 6 Illinois.
On Tuesday, we saw Alabama State advance as a No. 16 seed to take on Auburn, and North Carolina crushed San Diego State. North Carolina will now face No. 6 Ole Miss.
(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
After these two games, the field of 64 teams will be decided, and the Round of 64 games will begin on Thursday.
Below, you’ll find the best bets for these two NCAA games today, including moneyline, point spread, and player props.
Let’s check it out.
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College Basketball Best Bets Today: American, Xavier, and More
College Basketball Best Bets Today:
- American -2.5 (-104) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Xavier ML (-146) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Ryan Conwell 3+ 3-Point Shot Made (-145) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Mount Saint Mary’s vs American Best Bets
American -2.5 (-104) at DraftKings Sportsbook
American's point spread is leading off my list of the best college basketball bets today.
Heading into this matchup, both teams have won four straight games.
American is better in adjusted offensive efficiency between these two, posting 102.1 points per 100 possessions (252nd)
Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary’s is at 100.1 points per 100 possessions (292nd).
Conversely, Mount St. Mary’s allows 106.8 points per 100 possessions (176th)
This is better than American, who’s at 108 points per 100 possessions (205th).
They’re both playing for the No. 16 seed for a reason. These teams are extremely close in terms of metrics.
Shooting percentage-wise, they’re tied at 43.9%, though American shoots 0.2% better from 3-point range (35.1% to 34.9%).
Mount St. Mary’s is the superior rebounding team
They average 37.2 per game (53rd) to American’s mere 29.9 (351st).
That said, Mount St. Mary’s turns the ball over quite a lot, averaging 14.9 per game (354th) to American’s 10.7.
This is going to be a close game, but I think American does just enough to cover and win by three points, making it one of my best college basketball picks today.
Xavier vs Texas Best Bets
Xavier ML (-146) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Heading into this matchup, Texas has seven Quad 1 wins but also has five Quad 2 losses.
As for Xavier, they have just a single Quad 1 win, but only two losses throughout the other Quads (all from Quad 2).
KenPom ranks Texas at No. 41 and Xavier at No. 42 in overall Net Rating
Texas averages 116.7 points per 100 possessions (37th) and allows 99.5 per 100 possessions (56th).
Conversely, Xavier scores 115.5 points per 100 possessions (51st) and surrenders 98.3 points per 100 possessions (44th).
It’s also worth noting that Texas has lost eight of its last 12 games
Looking through their shooting percentage metrics, Xavier is superior from 3-point range. They’re sixth in the country, shooting 38.8% from 3-point range. Texas shoots 36% (67th) from deep.
Both teams are 144th or worse, defending the 3-point shot
This, like American and Mount St. Mary’s, is going to be an extremely close game, but I’ll take bet on Xavier’s 3-point shoot ability to do enough to win. As for the point spread, I’m staying away from that.
Ryan Conwell 3+ 3-Point Shot Made (-145) at FanDuel Sportsbook
I mentioned Villanova’s 3-point shooting prowess, and my next pick for the college basketball games today is Xavier guard Ryan Conwell to hit at least three 3-point shots.
This season, he’s shooting 41.8% from 3-point range
Over his last five games, he’s made four or more in each game.
This season, in 32 games, he’s had three or more in 19 of them.
Texas is 144th in 3-point shooting defense, allowing opponents to shoot 33.3% from beyond the arch
Part of my believed narrative is Xavier shooting the three-ball well to get the win.
I believe Conwell will be part of that, making it one of my favorite college basketball prop bets today.
Tre Johnson 18+ Points (-190) at DraftKings Sportsbook
While Johnson had just 11 points in Texas's last game out against Tennessee in an 83-72 loss, he's had 18 or more in three of his last five games (including the loss to Tennessee).
The freshman guard has had 18 points or more in 20 of his 32 games this season.
He shoots 42.7% from the field, 39.2% from 3-point range, and 89.1% from the free throw line.
Xavier allows opponents to shoot 44.3% from the field, which has increased to 48% over their last three games.
On 2-point shots, opponents are shooting 51.2% against them.
Johnson leads the Longhorns, averaging 19.8 points per game. The next closest player is Arthur Kaluma, who has 12.4 points.
If Texas wants to overcome its underdog status in this game, it will come through Johnson's ability to score points.
He'll get 18 or more in this one, win or lose.
If looking for March Madness tournament schedules, matchup breakdowns, and expert picks, head to our
March Madness section.
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