College Football Best Bets (Week 1): Odds & Predictions for September 6

Week 1 of the college football season is the best, and not just because of its long-awaited arrival. Why? Because we get to kick the season off with five days of football games (Thursday-Monday). For Sunday, three games are on deck, and I’m here to talk about the best bets for each.

It’s a unique trio of games, to say the least. We don’t often see rivalry games like the Apple Cup (Washington vs. Washington State) in the season opener. Expectations are high for Notre Dame, but Wisconsin has a solid history against top-5 teams when unranked. As for Ole Miss vs. Louisville, it’s the only ranked vs. ranked game of the weekend. So, yeah — we’ve got some good ones here.

(Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Now, let’s talk about the odds for each before I make my picks.

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College Football Odds & Best Bets for September 6

Here are the betting lines for each game with odds from FanDuel:

Washington State vs. No. 17 Washington

• Spread: Washington State +23.5 (-110) | Washington -23.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Washington State +1160 | Washington -2800
• Total: O/U 50.5 (-118/-104)

Rivalry games are always fun, but we usually don’t see them until later in the season, well after both teams have worked out the kinks. But the Apple Cup has been an early-season game for the last two seasons, since Washington ditched the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. Washington State pulled out a 24-19 win in the first post-Pac-12 meeting in 2024, its second of the last four seasons. But Washington reasserted its dominance last season, crushing the Cougars 59-24.

Washington has dominated the rivalry, going 74-33-6 since 1900, with wins in eight of the last 10.

Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

• Spread: Wisconsin +20.5 (-110) | Notre Dame -20.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Wisconsin +980 | Notre Dame -1800
• Total: O/U 46.5 (-110/-110)

There is not much history between the Badgers and the Fighting Irish, but the two have faced off 17 times. Of those 17, Notre Dame has won nine to Wisconsin’s six, with two ending in a tie. The last meeting was on neutral ground in Chicago, Illinois, in 2021. Notre Dame crushed Wisconsin 41-14.

When games have been in Madison (like today’s contest), the Badgers are 3-4-2. At neutral sites, Wisconsin is 2-2, but the wins were in 1904 and ’05. But what really makes this matchup intriguing is Wisconsin’s history against top-5 teams. Over the years, the Badgers have faced off against top-5 teams while unranked eight times. In those games, Wisconsin went 6-2.

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss

• Spread: Louisville +6.5 (-104) | Ole Miss -6.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Louisville +205 | Ole Miss -250
• Total: O/U 54.5 (-115/-105)

This game will be just the second meeting ever between these two programs. The first came back in the 2021 season opener, a game the Rebels won 43-24. Ole Miss went on to have a 10-3 season and lost to Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. Louisville had a less successful year, going 6-6 in the regular season and losing to Air Force in the First Responder Bowl.

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Washington State vs. Washington Prediction

Teams often find a way to play their best football against their rivals. But that may be a little hard for the Cougars to do today. Why? Because they probably don’t know who they are yet. This season marks their first in the newly formed Pac-12 and first under head coach Kirby Moore.

Moore was the offensive coordinator for Missouri last season, and that background will come in handy with a unit that has five returning starters. Former UC-Davis quarterback, Caden Pinnick, won the starting job in camp. Pinnick is a legit dual threat, passing for 3,206 yards and 32 touchdowns last season along with 437 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

But along with an improved passing game, the Cougars should have a solid rushing attack. Moore’s offense at Missouri ranked No. 8 in the country in rushing last season. With Kirby Vorhees running behind a veteran offensive line, the run game should see success right away.

However, the problem for the Cougars will be on the other side of the ball, as the starting defense has to be completely rebuilt (0 returning starters). Facing a Washington offense with seven returning starters is certainly not ideal.

Washington averaged over 400 yards and 34 points per game last season. With most of the starting 11 back and some help from the transfer portal, expectations are high for the Huskies offense once again. Quarterback Demond Williams should have plenty of time to find his receivers downhill behind his massive offensive line.  With four starters back, what was a good unit last year is expected to become a one of the best in the conference this year.

My Pick: OVER 50.5  (-118, FanDuel)

I expect Washington to win this game simply because of the returning talent on offense and Washington State’s lack of returning talent on defense. But 23.5 points is a massive spread to cover for a defense that was dominant against the run last season and not so great against the pass. The Huskies didn’t put much pressure on quarterbacks last season, and the secondary lacks experience.

That could open the door for Pinnick to get the Washington State offense moving, in garbage time if not sooner. In the process, I think he’ll keep the Cougars within 23.5 points. But if he doesn’t, he’ll push the final score over 50.5 points.

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Prediction

All eyes will be on this game, which is a good and bad thing for Notre Dame. Good because it will give the Fighting Irish a chance to prove they can live up to the hype and deserve to be in national championship conversations this season.

However, it could be bad if they don’t dominate the Badgers. Only a blowout win will satisfy many, and that may be easier said than done. Yes, the Fighting Irish have a lot of returning talent on both sides of the ball (seven on offense and eight on defense). But the lifeblood of the offense was running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who are now in the NFL.

Good things are expected of Aneyas Williams and Nolan James, and it will certainly help that they have a veteran offensive line opening holes for them. But that is not going to be easy against a defense that became one of the better units in the nation in the second half of the season last year.

While the Badgers only have three returning starters from that defense, with help from the portal, the Wisconsin front seven is expected to be just as stout against the run and rushing the passer this season. But the trouble this year for the Badgers is going to be in the secondary. It wasn’t great last year and will need a bunch of transfers to step up sooner rather than later.

My Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)

I expect Notre Dame to win, but I’m not confident they can cover a 20.5-point spread. Their defense should do fine against Wisconsin’s offense, but new Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph could have enough success against the Fighting Irish secondary to keep it interesting.

While I want to believe in the Notre Dame run game again, we really don’t know if the new running backs are up for the challenge a solid Wisconsin front seven will give them. Many feel like CJ Carr could become the No. 1 draft pick if he continues to develop, but can he carry the team if the run game stalls? I don’t know.

Part of me wants to go with the Badgers and the points, but I don’t have much confidence in what was a terrible offense last season against a good Notre Dame defense. At the same time, I expect the Fighting Irish will need to lean on Carr and the passing game. The Badgers defense will slow them down just enough to keep the final score under 46.5 points.

Louisville vs. Ole Miss Prediction

We’ll always wonder if Lane Kiffin could have led the Rebels to CFP glory last season, but now we need Ole Miss to prove it deserves to be back in the conversation with Pete Golding at the helm. Yes, Golding, who was the defensive coordinator, did an admirable job in the CFP last season. But that team was built in Kiffin’s image and played accordingly. This time, the team will be all his.

Of course, having quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy back among five returning offensive starters is going to help. It will be up to former East Carolina offensive coordinator John David Baker to get the offense clicking. The trick will be in not trying to live up to the standard Lane Kiffin set. It needs to develop its own identity in the post-Kiffin Era.

Most of the time under Kiffin, the defense was an afterthought, that is, until Golding joined the staff. But Golding and new defensive coordinator Bryan Brown will have some work to do rebuilding a unit with five returning starters. But with a ton of help coming in from the portal, hopes are certainly high.

As for Louisville, the Cardinals have been one of those teams stuck at “good” that just can’t find a way to break through to greatness. A win over a top-10 team would certainly point them in the right direction.

Taking a largely rebuilt offense on the road against a good Ole Miss defense is not ideal. The Cardinals will have some experience at running back in Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, and the interior of the offensive line is excellent.  But transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz is a bit of a mystery.

Getting a quarterback from Ohio State sounds great. But he hasn’t played much, so there is no telling what they have in him.

My Pick: Ole Miss -6.5 (-115)

Louisville had one of the best passing defenses in the ACC last season. With solid linebackers and good pass rushers back, it will probably be solid once again. But I’m not so sure it will be ready to handle an offense like Ole Miss's right out of the gate. At the same time, there are too many question marks surrounding the Cardinals offense.

Ole Miss has holes to fill as well and questions they’ll be looking for answers to. But Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy will make enough plays for the Rebels to win by a touchdown.