College Football Week 3 Best Bets: LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds & Predictions (Sept. 19)

We have a busy day of college football ahead of us today with 48 games featuring FBS teams (some vs. FCS opponents) and 20 featuring ranked teams. So, there are plenty of great games to bet on today. But which ones made my CFB Week 3 Best Bets list? I’m going with both ranked vs. ranked games and No. 9 Texas A&M’s SEC opener.

So, let’s talk about the betting lines for these games and my picks.

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College Football Week 3 (Saturday): Odds

Here are the betting lines for Kentucky vs. Texas A&M, SMU vs. Louisville, and LSU vs. Ole Miss with odds from DraftKings:

Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies

• Spread: Kentucky +16.5 (-102)| Texas A&M -16.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Kentucky +575| Texas A&M -850
• Total: O/U 49.5 (-112/-108)

This game will be just the fourth meeting between these two programs. Kentucky won the first back in 1952, but A&M won the last in 2018 in overtime, 20-14, and lead the series 2-1. According to the odds, the Aggies have an 89.47% chance of making it 3-1 by the end of the day.

That outcome would certainly align with what we have seen from Texas A&M at home since Mike Elko took over in 2024. Since then, the Aggies have gone 14-3 when playing at Kyle Field and 14-2 when the home favorite. They went undefeated at home during the regular season last year, losing at home to Miami in the CFP.

However, while they often did what mattered most (win), games were more competitive than expected. Texas A&M covered in just two of those eight games.

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No. 16 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 23 Louisville Cardinals

• Spread: SMU +1.5 (-110) | Louisville -1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: SMU -102 | Louisville -118
• Total: O/U 58.5 (-112/-108)

Like Texas A&M-Kentucky, there isn’t much history between these two teams. Since 1983, the Mustangs and Cardinals have met four times, with SMU taking all four; it beat the Cardinals 38-6 in Dallas last season. Expectations are high for both teams, and it should be a good matchup. SMU comes in as the higher-ranked team at No. 16 (Louisville is No. 23) but is playing on the road.

The Cardinals are favored at home, but the spread is just 1.5-points.

When favored at home under Jeff Brohm, Louisville has gone 14-5 SU but just 9-10 ATS. As a road underdog, Rhett Lashlee’s Mustangs have gone 3-7 SU and ATS. Last season, SMU went 1-1 SU and ATS as road dogs; Louisville went 4-3 SU and 0-7 ATS when favored at home.

No. 7 LSU Tigers vs. No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels

• Spread: LSU -3 (-108) | Ole Miss +3 (-112)
• Moneyline: LSU -155 | Ole Miss +130
• Total: O/U 58.5 (-108/-112)

As long-time SEC rivals, there is quite a bit of history between these two programs dating back to their first meeting back on December 3, 1894 (won by Ole Miss, 28-6). The Rebels may have won the first game, but they haven’t had much luck since. LSU leads the all-time 65-39-3.

The series has been pretty competitive in recent years, with the teams trading wins since 2020. LSU won in 2020 in a barn burner, 53-48, and again in 2022 (45-20), and 2024 (29-26). Ole Miss won last season’s contest in Oxford, 24-19 (when Lane Kiffin was still the Rebels' head coach).

But both head coaches are in their first year with each team. But this game has attracted a lot of attention since it is Lane Kiffin’s first time back in Oxford since abandoning the team during last season’s CFP run for LSU. Then defensive coordinator Pete Golding took over as head coach and led the team to wins over Tulane and Georgia before falling to Miami in the CFP Semifinals.

CFB Week 3 Best Bets & Predictions for Sept. 19

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas A&M

Will Stein would have loved to have gotten his first SEC win as a head coach over Alabama last week. But if he can learn from that game (Alabama won 45-17; Kentucky led 17-13 at the half), he may have a chance at pulling off an upset over Texas A&M today.

In the first half, his defense stepped up and shut down the Alabama run game, allowing just five yards rushing. His defense also sacked Keelon Russell four times and forced three turnovers, with one interception returned for a touchdown.

But Alabama made the necessary halftime adjustments, ran for 150 yards in the second half, held the Kentucky offense to 62 total yards, and outscored the Wildcats 32-0.

The Wildcats could find themselves in a similar situation against the Aggies. Texas A&M has gotten off to slow starts in both games so far this season. They led Missouri State 19-0 at the half before winning 50-0 and held just a 17-10 lead over Arizona State last week.

Second-half adjustments on both sides of the ball led to a better second half for the Aggies in Week 1. But last week, the credit for the second-half explosion belongs to the defense. The Sun Devils closed the gap to 24-20 in the third quarter. But the TAMU defense recorded two interceptions for touchdowns to secure and seal the win.

My Pick: Texas A&M -16.5 (-118, DraftKings)

Beating up on Youngstown State in Week 1 is one thing, but the loss to Alabama last week showed us a bit more of what reality will be like for Kentucky this season. Will Stein is a solid coach and has done a good job. But he doesn’t have the same level of talent on offense as he did last season as Oregon's offensive coordinator.

His offense will come out strong in the first quarter, but the A&M defense is not going to bend as much as Alabama’s did. Texas A&M will likely get off to another slow start as the Aggies will likely try to establish the run early, which will be hard to do against the Wildcats' front. But the offense will also not help Kentucky with early turnovers like the Tide did last week (two first-half picks, including one pick-6).

I wouldn’t be shocked if Kentucky held a small lead or was behind by less than a touchdown at the half. But Mike Elko has a solid history of coming back from halftime deficits and making adjustments. Over the last two seasons, Texas has gone 3-2 when trailing at the half. The Aggies went 1-2 in such games in 2024, but one loss was a 4OT battle (vs. Auburn, 43-41).

Last season, Texas A&M overcame halftime deficits to LSU (49-25) and South Carolina (31-30).

Much like last week, Texas A&M’s defense will lead the way and take over the game in the second half. I don’t expect A&M to go on a 32-0 run like Alabama did vs. Kentucky, but the Aggies will score enough to cover.

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SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals

Both teams had a fair amount of rebuilding/reloading to do in the offseason. The early prognosis for both teams — so far, so good. SMU QB Kevin Jennings almost seems to have picked up where he left off with a 430-yard day against Florida State to open the season and a 337-yard performance last week against UC Davis.

The passing offense is already No. 1 in the country, but it remains to be seen how well the defensive rebuild went. Last season, the Mustangs had one of the worst pass defenses in the country (No. 133, 283.2 yards per game allowed). So, having only four starters return wasn’t necessarily a bad thing.

So far it looks solid. The SMU secondary held UC Davis to 171 yards passing last week and gave up just 125 yards to Florida State, holding Ashton Daniels to 12 completions on 23 attempts and 5.4 yards per attempt.

However, Louisville comes into this game a little more battle-tested after facing off with No. 9 Ole Miss in its season opener. The Cardinals lost that game, 41-38, but new starting quarterback Lincoln Kienholz had a solid outing in his first start, going 18 of 29 for 307 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

But that problem could come back to haunt them against SMU. To beat the Mustangs, you have to control the SMU passing game. Against Ole Miss, the Louisville defense allowed 336 yards passing and three touchdowns.

My Pick: Over 58.5 (-112, DraftKings)

In this game, we have what appear to be two very good passing attacks facing off. The Louisville defense struggled against the pass vs. Ole Miss and will likely do the same against SMU. Statistically, the Mustangs' defense has held up, but it hasn't yet faced a strong passing attack.

SMU’s defense may be better this season, but Lincoln Kienholz was impressive against Ole Miss. This game won't be a blowout like last season (38-6, SMU). Louisville is a solid squad with a good offense that will put up some points against this Mustangs' defense. With both offenses playing so well this season, the winner could be whoever has the ball last.

But regardless of who wins, the final score is going to be high and over this total.

LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Yes, the Rebels still made a solid CFP run without Lane Kiffin. But could they have done better with him? That possibility is probably what angers fans most. But that was then; now, this game features two very good teams off to 2-0 starts.

But it is hard not to think LSU has an advantage because of Kiffin’s familiarity with the program, having been its head coach since the 2020 season before his departure last year. He knows how good the roster is and especially Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss.

When he left, Kiffin took nine assistant coaches with him but only four Ole Miss players followed. So, the CFP-caliber team he helped build in Oxford remained largely intact from a player perspective.

LSU had more rebuilding to do than Ole Miss and did well with the No. 1 portal class in the offseason, headlined by former Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt.  The results speak for themselves with LSU crushing Clemson in its opener, 51-10, and beating Louisiana Tech last week, 45-14.

But Ole Miss has done fine in the post-Kiffin Era. It faced a tough opponent in Week 1, but pulled through and beat Louisville, 41-38. Last week, the Rebels crushed Charlotte 41-9.

My Pick: Ole Miss +130 (DraftKings)

The safer route is the OVER (58.5 at -112), since this battle between two great offenses will likely be high-scoring. But I can’t shake the feeling that this is a game Ole Miss can and should win. I may be saying that in part because of my disdain for Lane Kiffin, his complete lack of loyalty and his “gamesmanship.” I’m sure the media appreciated seeing Sam Leavitt pop up on the injury report for a day before coming off of it. It gave them another reason to talk about Kiffin.

His team is good, of course, but it is too soon to call it great. Yes, it crushed Clemson in the opener, but those Tigers were grossly overrated coming into the season. Leavitt has played the part as a quarterback of a national title contender in the past (at Arizona State). But I question whether LSU can come from behind. He has a good record as a passer, but it doesn’t compare to Trinidad Chambliss.

It is easy to point to Kiffin having an edge because he helped develop Ole Miss into the team that it is. But Pete Golding is just as familiar, if not more so, with Kiffin’s offense. Not because he was Kiffin’s defensive coordinator. But because he was the DC at Alabama for three of Kiffin’s four losses at Ole Miss vs. the Tide.

Because of that, I can see the Ole Miss defense playing well enough against LSU to give Trinidad Chambliss a shot to win this one in the fourth quarter. As the underdog with a +130 moneyline, that makes the Rebels' moneyline a solid value play.