College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Odds & Predictions for September 18

Friday night’s college football schedule has three games: No. 5 Miami vs. Wake Forest, Portland State vs. No. 21 Oregon, and No. 22 Houston vs. No. 13 Texas Tech. My purpose here is to review these games and pick my college football best bets for y’all.

Of course, before I can do that, we need to take a look at the betting lines for tonight’s game.

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College Football Odds, Week 3 (Sept. 18)

Here are the betting lines for tonight’s college football games with odds via FanDuel:

No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

• Spread: Miami -20.5 (-110) | Wake Forest +20.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Miami -1600 | Wake Forest +860
• Total: O/U 55.5 (-106/-114)

According to the Miami moneyline (-1600), the Hurricanes have a 94.12% chance of beating the Demon Deacons tonight (shocker, right?). The line for Wake Forest gives the Demon Deacons just a 10.42% chance. It’s about what we expected, right? But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Hurricanes are a good bet.

Why not? Because at -1600 you’d have to risk $1600 just to win $100; the risk is absolutely not worth the reward. Now, it is worth noting that, under head coach Mario Cristobal (since 2022), Miami is only 19-14 SU and 12-20-1 ATS against ACC teams. That is not exactly a dominant track record.

To be fair, the Hurricanes have gone 13-4 SU and 8-8-1 ATS against the ACC the last two seasons (and 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS last season).

Wake Forest hasn’t been blowing up the ACC in recent years. Since 2022, the Demon Deacons are 10-22 SU and 14-16-2 ATS vs. ACC teams. When they last played Miami (November 23, 2024), the Hurricanes dominated, 42-14. But to be fair to Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons were a solid team last season, going 9-4 SU and 8-4 ATS. Conference play was tougher, but they still went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS.

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No. 22 Houston Cougars vs. No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders

• Spread: Houston +7.5 (-105) | Texas Tech -7.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Houston +250 | Texas Tech -315
• Total: O/U 52.5 (-110/-110)

Houston enters the game with a 28.57% chance of winning (according to the moneyline). Texas Tech, on the other hand, has a 53.49% chance of winning. If the history between these two teams is any indication, this is not surprising. Since the 2009 season, the Red Raiders have dominated the Cougars, going 7-1 SU and ATS.

This stretch includes a dominant win last season (35-11) that helped Texas Tech earn a place in the College Football Playoff.

But hopes are high for Houston fans and the team's seasoned roster (12 returning starters; six on offense and defense) coming off a 10-win season in 2025. Two games into the season, the Cougars have the No. 1 scoring offense in the Big 12, averaging 55.0 points per game.

The Red Raiders also have plenty of talent coming back from last season’s CFP squad, but lost several players to the NFL that will be hard to replace. So far, the results have been sufficient (they are 2-0). But their win over Oregon State wasn't very convincing (35-24).

Portland State Vikings vs. No. 21 Oregon Ducks

• Spread: Portland State +57.5 (-105) | Oregon -57.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Portland State NA | Oregon NA
• Total: O/U 68.5 (-114/-106)

Oregon has not played like a team that entered the season ranked No. 2 in the country should play. But this week, it faces an FCS opponent. The Ducks have never lost to an FCS opponent and are 6-0 against the Vikings. In the most recent meeting in 2023, Oregon won 81-7.

Like many FCS teams, Portland State likes to schedule FBS opponents from time to time. That's fine, but history hasn't been kind. The Vikings are 4-51 all-time vs. FBS teams and 0-11 vs. ranked FBS teams (five of them being Oregon). However, the Vikings do hold the record for the biggest win by an FCS team over an FBS opponent, 66-7 vs. North Texas in 2015.

College Football Best Bets for Week 3 (Sept. 18)

Miami vs. Wake Forest

All eyes are going to be on Miami, of course. Wake Forest isn’t expected to provide the Hurricanes with a significant challenge (hence the 20.5-point spread). But the Demon Deacons will be a step up in competition compared to Miami’s first two opponents (Stanford and Florida A&M).

Miami was, of course, expected to be great this season despite only having nine starters back from last season’s championship-caliber squad (three offense, six defense). But Mario Cristobal has reloaded the roster with talented recruits and with several players via the transfer portal, like quarterback Darian Mensah.

After a standout season with Duke last year, expectations were high for Mensah, and he hasn’t disappointed. Through two games (approximately five quarters), he has completed 91.1% of his passes for 653 yards and twice as many touchdowns (8) as incompletions (4). Of course, it helps to have someone like Malachi Toney to work with (16 receptions for 330 yards, and four touchdowns).

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Wake Forest isn’t going to just hand the Hurricanes another easy win. It lacked experience on offense coming into the season with just two returning starters. But transfer quarterback Gio Lopez (former UNC QB) has had the offense humming, scoring 38 points each of the team’s first two games.

However, the defense, despite having eight returning starters, has to be better. It was sufficient against Akron in Week 1 (16 points and 305 yards of offense allowed). But it struggled against Purdue, allowing 36 points and 455 yards of offense.

My Pick: OVER 55.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Miami will win this game, likely by a significant margin. But with the youth and injuries in Miami's secondary, Wake Forest could have some success in the passing game. Enough to win? No, but if the Hurricanes take their foot off the gas too soon, the Demon Deacons could get within 20 points.

However, I’m going with the over for the same reason. Mensah is going to have another banner day against a lackluster Wake Forest secondary, leading Miami to another high-scoring game in the process. But the Demon Deacons offense has played well enough to make me believe they can score a couple of touchdowns in garbage time.

With how the Miami offense has been clicking, the Hurricanes might cover the over on their own. But whatever Wake Forest scores in garbage time will put the final over this total.

Houston vs. Texas Tech

Expectations are naturally going to be high for a team that made the CFP the season before. Last season, Texas Tech looked fantastic during the regular season but looked more like the not-ready-for-primetime players against Oregon in the playoff. Now that they’ve tasted the national stage, fans hope the Red Raiders can fix what didn’t work and get back.

However, two games into the season, it is hard to say whether the Red Raiders can. Last season they had the No. 3 scoring defense in the nation and No. 7 offense. Two games into the 2026 season, they are hovering in the mid-50s in both categories.

Now, you can put some blame on integrating new starters and working out the kinks, but the competition has been soft (Oregon State and an FCS team). However, the Red Raiders' run defense could be its saving grace. Through two games, it ranks No. 12 in the country, allowing 65 yards per game.

Of course, the offense is going to play its part. Will Hammond is not Brandon Sorsby, but no one will complain about a quarterback completing 77% of his passes. However, Conner Weigman’s experience could give Houston an edge if the game stays close.

Weigman, a fifth-year senior, had several starts in three seasons at Texas A&M before transferring to Houston and becoming QB1 for the Cougars. After a season in Willie Fritz’s system, he’s expected to build off last year’s 2,700+ passing yards and 25 touchdowns. With a solid offensive line protecting him, talented receivers, and a top-10 rushing attack, it’s not hard to see him lead Houston to the Big 12 title game.

My Pick: Houston +7.5 (-105)

Texas Tech is getting more credit than it's earned. Yes, it was great last season and will likely be good again this year. But the Red Raiders have played mediocre football against lackluster opponents this season. Houston, on the other hand, has been dominant. Its defense has been good but not great. However, when you score 55 points per game, “good” is good enough.

Now, Houston will find it harder to run against Texas Tech’s defense. But led by a better, more experienced quarterback, the Cougars will keep this one close, if not win outright.

Portland State vs. Oregon

Oregon entered the season ranked No. 2 in the polls. But it struggled to beat Boise State and lost to an Oklahoma State team that last beat an FBS opponent on September 14, 2024 (45-10 vs. Tulsa). But now we are talking about playing an FCS team; one that has yet to win a game. To be fair, the two FCS teams the Vikings played are among the better teams at that level (UC Davis and North Dakota). San Diego State got a few votes in an early Coaches Poll.

Does this mean they have a shot against Oregon? Of course not.

The Ducks have too much talent on the roster — highlighted by QB Dante Moore — to keep playing as they have. Dan Lanning's team just needs a “get right” game; an easy opponent they can work out the kinks against, like this one. However, Portland State has moved the ball well. The Vikings currently rank No. 21 in the FCS in passing yards (260.3 yards per game). Oregon’s defense has allowed 414 total yards per game (No. 17 in the Big Ten).

My Pick: Over 68.5 (-106, FanDuel)

Let’s assume the Ducks crush the Vikings as they are expected to do. An offense with a decent passing game (like Portland State) could do some damage in garbage time (likely the fourth quarter). Consequently, they could score enough late in the game to keep the Ducks from covering. But there isn't enough of a chance to warrant taking the Vikings and the points at -102. However, those garbage-time scores will be what pushes the final score over the total.