College Football Week 5 Best Bets: Odds & Predictions for October 3

It feels strange to say it, but we are getting close to the halfway point of the college football regular season. Crazy, right? Doesn’t it feel like we’re just getting started? That could be because the games have only recently gotten more competitive, with conference play kicking off. That’s just one of the many data points I considered for the weekend’s College Football Best Bets.

Yeah, the teams we expected to be great have been (for the most part). But was it because they are, or because they played soft opponents that never stood a chance to begin with? For some teams,  I think we’ll start getting an answer to that question this weekend.

(Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

But before we get into that, we must do one thing first: go over the betting lines for the three of Week 5's more competitive games: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina, No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 16 Mississippi State, and No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Iowa.

College Football Odds For Week 5

I know what some of you may be thinking: why bet on a potential blowout like Notre Dame vs. North Carolina over a much better match-up like No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri? Well, I’ve got two reasons: (1) I’m not confident this game will be as much of a blowout as expected, and (2) last week I overlooked Florida because it was playing a top-five team.

I watched the Gators dominate the Rebels, but Florida opened as only a 2.5-point favorite (now 5.5) against a much lower-ranked team. That tells me there is more to that game than meets the eye. Between the two, Notre Dame-North Carolina and Florida-Missouri, I see the Fighting Irish-Tigers as the better bet.

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Here are the betting lines for my three chosen games (odds via FanDuel):

No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

• Spread: Notre Dame -21.5 (-110) | North Carolina +21.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Notre Dame -2500 | North Carolina +1160
• Total: O/U 46.5 (-110/-110)

These odds give Notre Dame exactly what you'd expect for this game — a massive chance to win (96.15%). North Carolina, on the other hand, has just a 7.94% shot. These percentages are pretty well echoed in the betting splits, with 96% of moneyline tickets on Notre Dame and just 4% on the Tar Heels.

But a disproportionate percentage of the handle is on North Carolina (20%). That suggests at least a few sharps believe the Tar Heels could pull off an upset. But something even more telling is the split in regard to the spread:

• 48% of spread tickets and 55% of the handle is on Notre Dame.
• 52% of spread tickets and 45% of the handle is on North Carolina.

Could this be a more competitive game than many seem to expect? It’s possible, but I’ll have more on that in a moment.

No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-118) | Mississippi State +5.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Alabama -200 | Mississippi State +164
• Total: O/U 60.5 (-110/-110)

According to these odds, the Tide have a 66.67% chance of taking the W in this game, while the Bulldogs have just a 37.88% shot. Bulldogs fans are probably thinking, “ Well, that’s a better shot than we usually have against Bama,” which is true. In the last six meetings (2018-2023), Alabama had a 90% chance or better to win.

The Tide did win those games, of course, in blowout fashion.

This game will actually be the fourth time both have been ranked heading into the matchup. This may surprise you (it certainly surprised me), but Mississippi State was the higher-ranked team in two of those three games (1981 and 1999). Each game was somewhat competitive, but Alabama won all three.

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes

• Spread: Ohio State -14.5 (-104) | Iowa +14.5 (-118)
• Moneyline: Ohio State -710 | Iowa +490
• Total: O/U 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Buckeyes, of course, enter this game as heavy favorites, with an 87.65% chance of winning according to the odds. Iowa, on the other hand, has just a 16.95% shot.

Ohio State is no stranger to playing ranked opponents. Over the years, the Buckeyes have won 54.7% of their games vs. top 25 teams (162-133-13). Over half of those games were vs. top 10 teams (158) of which Ohio State won 43.7% (65-85-8). Against top-5 opponents, they’ve won roughly a third of the games, 27-55-3. However, the Buckeyes have lost their last three vs. ranked teams.

Most recently, they faced Texas, which they dominated for three quarters before the win slipped away in the fourth.

College Football Week 5 Best Bets

(All odds via FanDuel)

No. 3 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

Notre Dame is a clear favorite. The Fighting Irish entered the season with national championship aspirations and now have FanDuel’s third-shortest odds (+550). Heisman contender CJ Carr leads an offense ranked No. 17 in scoring (42.3 points per game) despite ranking No. 62 in total offense (416.8 yards per game).

Notre Dame’s defense strengthens its case, ranking No. 1 in total yards allowed (199.3 per game), No. 5 against the run (53.8 per game), and No. 2 in scoring defense (8.3 points per game).

From what we have seen, Notre Dame should be a heavy favorite. The defense led by linebacker Drayk Bowen (22 total tackles) has been stifling. The run game doesn’t quite match last season’s dominant attack, but Aneyas Williams and Nolan James Jr. are coming along; both are averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per carry.

So, why don’t we just call this what it is: a game Notre Dame is predestined to win by a large margin? Because that may not be the case.

It is easy to discredit North Carolina because it was such a disaster in Bill Belichick’s first season as the head coach. But this season, so far, the Tar Heels have been a respectable 2-1 team. If they didn’t have a 2 ½ hour weather delay in the fourth quarter against Clemson two weeks ago, chances are they would be undefeated.

Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has been steady (56.4% completion rate, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). Benjamin Hall averages 6.5 yards per carry, while Demon June leads the team with four rushing touchdowns. The defense allows 312.3 yards (No. 44) and 13.7 points (No. 20) per game.

But an undefeated North Carolina team still doesn’t compare to an undefeated Notre Dame squad — right?

My Pick: North Carolina +21.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Notre Dame is a solid team, but it hasn’t faced any competition yet, making it far from a proven commodity. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, its schedule ranks No. 95 in strength of schedule. By comparison, North Carolina ranks No. 65.

I’m not trying to say North Carolina is a powerhouse by any means, but it may be as underrated as Notre Dame is overrated, primarily because last season was such an utter disaster for Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels. But he rebuilt his team in the offseason and appears to have learned from many of his mistakes.

However, Notre Dame does have a distinct talent advantage. But under Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame lost to four unranked teams, and in three his team was a double-digit favorite. But while I think Belichick’s Tar Heels are underrated, they aren’t good enough to win. They will, however, not lose by three touchdowns.

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No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 16 Mississippi State

A Mississippi State win would absolutely make for an incredible story. The Bulldogs have struggled in SEC play for years, winning just one conference game the last two seasons, and they haven’t had a winning conference record since 2014. That was also the last time they started a season 4-0.

Led by Dak Prescott, a dual-threat QB much like Kamario Taylor, that team improved to 9-0 and became the No. 1 team in the nation. But then it played Alabama (and lost, 25-20). Prescott’s three interceptions played a pivotal role in that loss. Taylor, a sophomore, has done a great job of protecting the ball this season, throwing just two interceptions through the first four games.

Alabama’s defense has recorded six interceptions and goes into this game No. 88 in the country in passing yards allowed (221.5 yards per game). It is worth noting, however, that the best passing offense it has faced is South Carolina’s No.65-ranked unit. Mississippi State’s passing game will easily be the best the Crimson Tide has faced (No. 13, 315.5 yards per game).

But as much as the Tide needs to worry about the Bulldog passing game, the same is true of Mississippi State’s defense. Its pass defense ranks No. 114 in the nation (249 yards per game allowed). Alabama also has a sophomore quarterback, Keelon Russell. Like Taylor, he is also having a standout season to date (78-110 for 1,129 yards, 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions).

So, we have two teams with high-powered offenses facing defenses that can best be described as “OK” after four weeks.

My Pick: Over 60.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Alabama is averaging 48 points per game and allowing 20.3. Mississippi State is averaging 43 points per game and allowing 21. We have two excellent offenses facing decent, but not overly impressive, defenses. This game screams “shootout,” with the winner being the team whose defense makes that one crucial stop.

The Tide have more interceptions (6 to 2), more sacks (11 to 9), and Mississippi State is one of the most penalized teams in the nation. Consequently, I’d pick Alabama to win, but because of Mississippi State’s high-powered offense, I would not pick it to cover. Thus, making “Over 60.5 at -110” the best bet for this game.

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Iowa.

Iowa’s win over Michigan validated its earlier wins over weaker opponents and proved the Hawkeyes are a strong team.  But can they challenge perennial Big Ten and national title contender Ohio State? Wins over Northern Illinois, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa offered little proof, but beating Michigan suggests they might.

The offense, led by senior quarterback Hank Brown, ranks No. 48 in the country with 429 yards per game (215.5 rushing and 213.5 passing). They are scoring 32.8 points per game (No. 58). It’s a good offense, but “good” likely won't be enough against an excellent Ohio State defense.

Led by defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr., linebacker Payton Pierce, and safety Jaylen McClain, the Buckeyes defense is holding teams to 274.3 total yards (114 rushing and 160.3 passing) and just 12.3 points per game (tied for No. 11 in the country). It is certainly a unit that will be tough for anyone to move the ball against.

However, it broke down in the fourth quarter against Texas, allowing the Longhorns to stage an epic comeback and steal the win and the No. 1 spot in the polls. Could Iowa pull off a late comeback as well, if need be? Well…maybe.

Iowa has earned its reputation as a defensive team, ranking No. 9 in total defense (239.8 yards allowed per game) and No. 1 in scoring defense (8.0 points allowed per game). So, like Texas, it will probably not let the score get too out of hand. On offense, the Hawkeyes are as good as, if not better than, Texas (from a statistical perspective):

• Total Offense: Iowa -- 429 ypg; Texas -- 378.5
• Rushing: Iowa -- 215.5 ypg; Texas -- 147.3 ypg
• Passing: Iowa -- 213.5 ypg; Texas -- 231.3 ypg
• Scoring: Iowa -- 32.8 ppg; Texas -- 33.5 ppg

My Pick: Under 45.5 (-115, FanDuel)

I’m torn between taking Iowa and the points or the Under. But I’m going with the Under because it comes with a slightly better price (-115 compared to -118 with the spread). I expect this game to be much more competitive than a 14.5-point spread suggests because we have two teams with really good defenses.

If I’m right, it will be a low-scoring game (under 45.5 points), and Iowa will not lose by more than two touchdowns. But should they lose by more than 14.5 points, it will be because QB Julian Sayin and star WR Jeremiah Smith have another ridiculous day and the Buckeyes run up the score.

Iowa has a much better defense than Texas and a comparable offense. If Texas can keep Ohio State’s offense in check and around 20 points, the Hawkeyes could win this game outright or stay within 14.5 points. Win or lose, if they hold the Buckeyes to around 20 points, the final score will be under 45.5 points.