College Hoops Best Bets for Jan 16 (Creighton vs Providence Betting Odds and Predictions)

Even on a limited Friday slate, there’s value to be found in the totals market. These two conference matchups check the right boxes when it comes to pace, efficiency and situational factors, setting up strong angles on both sides of the number.

(Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Both games on opposite sides of the country and with opposite styles of play, here are two game totals that stand out as value plays on Friday night.

You can find all the odds used in my predictions at DraftKings.

Creighton @ Providence Prediction for January 16

Expect plenty of scoring in what should be a competitive Big East matchup Friday night in Rhode Island.

Despite their 8-9 record, don't sleep on Providence. They're a battle-tested unit and have played competitively against quality competition, including a win over St. John’s, an overtime loss to UConn and another overtime loss at Virginia Tech.

Providence enters on a three-game losing streak, highlighted by the close loss to UConn and an 88-82 defeat at home against Villanova in its most recent outing. Expect an inspired effort from the Friars back on their home floor.

Providence can be an over machine this year

When you get into the grind of betting college basketball, you have to look out for teams that profile to play in over or under games. The Friars are absolutely one that profiles as an over team.

• According to KenPom analytics, the Friars rank 36th nationally in offensive efficiency but just 150th defensively

That combination alone sets up for high-scoring games. Their offensive ranking becomes even more impressive when you consider Providence has faced the ninth-best collective offenses in the country.

What truly separates this team from recent Providence squads, however, is their willingness to push in transition. The Friars rank 15th nationally in adjusted tempo this year, a significant shift from the slower-paced teams Ed Cooley has coached in the past.

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Creighton, as usual, lives from beyond the arc

Led this season by transfer Josh Dix, Creighton has put together a solid but unspectacular resume, lacking signature wins while still avoiding bad losses.

Offensively, the Bluejays rely heavily on three-point shooting with a balanced, deep rotation. Creighton ranks 23rd nationally in three-point attempts, averaging nearly 30 shots per game from deep.

No more Kalkbrenner means more threes, worse paint defense

This trend fits Greg McDermott’s typical scheme, but without Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton has had a tougher time generating easy buckets and second-chance points. The absence also opens the door for opponents to attack the rim more effectively.

That should benefit Providence in this matchup.

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Pick: Over 162.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Creighton is the better team on paper, but Providence should be able to dictate the tempo on their home floor. If the Bluejays knock down their threes, this over should cash with plenty of time to spare.

Colorado State @ Boise State Prediction For January 16

This late-night battle out west features two teams with metrics and tendencies that set up perfectly for a rock fight.

Colorado State is efficient, but painfully slow

Based strictly off their offensive and defensive metrics, Colorado State profiles as a team that should be involved in a lot of high-scoring games. According to KenPom, the Rams currently rank 41st in offensive efficiency paired with 236th in defensive efficiency.

However, that's until you dig a bit deeper and find out that they're dead last in the nation in adjusted tempo.

Trust Boise State's battle-tested defense, especially at home in a bounce back spot

Boise State’s profile lines up well for a rock fight against the Rams. The Broncos rank 45th nationally in defensive efficiency while having faced the 15th-best collective offenses in the country. They also play significantly better at home and rank 234th in adjusted tempo.

Coming off four straight losses, expect Boise State to lean on its defense and home crowd to make Colorado State work for every bucket. On the other end, don’t expect the Broncos to score much either against Colorado State’s stingy defense - after all, defense travels.

Pick: Under 141.5 (-115 DraftKings)

If both teams stick to their tendencies, this game should be played at a slow pace, with each side avoiding transition opportunities and taking time to get in their half-court sets.