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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics: Game 2 betting predictions and odds for Apr. 24

Publish Date: 04/24/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Celtics lead the series 1-0 vs. the Miami Heat.
  • Boston covered the -14.5 point-spread in Game 1.
  • The Celtics are 42-36-5 ATS on the season.
  • The last two matchups between the two teams hit the UNDER.
  • The Celtics shot 44.9 % from the three-point line in Game 1 .
  • Boston dominated Miami 44-34 on the boards.

The NBA Playoffs have started, and the No. 1 Boston Celtics (4-18, 37-4 home) will play against the No. 8 Miami Heat (46-36, 24-17 away) in game 2 of the first round of the Eastern Conference. For those of you who don't know, Miami and Boston have a long-standing postseason rivalry, which began in 2010.  The Miami Heat notoriously upset Celtics fans and surprised bettors by winning game 7 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. With Boston now leading the series 1-0, they aim to make a comeback.

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Due to several injuries on Miami's side, the Celtics are favored by a 14.5-point spread for the second consecutive game. While this is a classic no. 1 seed vs. no. 8 seed, it's not as common to witness such a large spread in the postseason. For the Heat, they will be without stars Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, as well as Josh Richardson.

Losing Butler to a sprained MCL was tough for Miami, they're now without players who contributed to almost 44% of the team's offense.

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Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round was complete dominance by the Boston Celtics. Defeating Miami 114-94, they maintained a 34-point lead and outscored the Heat 31-14 in the third quarter.  Star wingman Jayson Tatum led the C's with his first postseason triple-double (23 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists), while the Celtics bench added a 30-point boost.

Shooting 44.9 percent from deep, Boston was able to easily cover the 14.5 favored point spread. Overpowering Miami on the boards, it was their defense that shined. And to be fair, the Celtics defense has been commanding all season.

THE HEAT ARE INJURY RIDDLED

Since Boston clinched the top seed in the East, they will obtain home-court advantage for game 2. If you're looking to bet on tonight's highly anticipated matchup, it will be held at the TD Garden, located in Boston, Massachusetts. Set to air on ABC, the matchup is set to generate excitement as the Heat have won four of the last six playoff meetings.

Overall, this is a story of the top-producing with the Celtics vs. the Heat, who have struggled with injuries all season. As part of the new NBA Play-In Tournament, the Heat defeated the Chicago Bulls 112-91 for the no. 8 and final seed in the East.

If you're a Heat fan or bet on the Heat, this rings a bit of Déjà vu from last season. After finishing as the No. 7 seed in the East, Miami lost to Atlanta, only to defeat Chicago in the Play-In Tournament.

From there, they defeated the Celtics to face the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs. While the trajectory looks the same, their roster is injured and depleted.

Let's dive into how to bet on tonight's game, where I've compiled all the necessary data, odds, and statistics to facilitate informed betting predictions for Wednesday, April 24th.

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS FAN DUEL ODDS FOR APR. 24

MONEY LINE

  • MIAMI HEAT: +810
  • BOSTON CELTICS:-1350

SPREAD

  • MIAMI HEAT: +14.5 (-108)
  • BOSTON CELTICS: -14.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 204 (-110)
  • UNDER: 204 (-110)

BEST FANDUEL ODDS FOR MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS

  • FanDuel currently has the best Celtics money line odds at -1350
  • The Boston Celtics are 14.5-point favorites against the Miami Heat.  FanDuel currently has the best odds currently at (-112)
  • The Miami Heat are the underdogs by +14.5 to cover the spread tonight. Again, FanDuel currently has the best odds at -108 for Miami to cover the spread
  • FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -110 for the over and under.
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MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

MIAMI HEAT INJURY REPORT

  • G: TERRY ROZIER, OUT: (NECK)
  • G: JOSH RICHARDSON, OUT: (RIGHT SHOULDER)
  • F: JIMMY BUTLER, OUT:(SPRAINED MCL)

BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

  • C: LUKE KORNET, OUT: (CALF)

MIAMI HEAT POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Category Statistics
Last 5 Games 3-2
Last 10 Games 5-5
Season ATS Record 40-41-2
Season O/U Record 35-48-0
Last 5 Games ATS 3-2
Last 10 Games ATS 6-4-0
Last 5 Games O/U 3-2
Last 10 Games O/U 7-3-0
Offensive Rating (Rank) 105.6 (10)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 126.7 (16)
Points Per Game (Rank) 94 (12)
Pace (Rank) 89.50 (T-15 w/ Celtics)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 114 (16)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 32.4% (11)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 34 (16)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Houston (-3), Indiana (+3), Atlanta (-3.5), Toronto (-14), Philadelphia (+5.5), Chicago (-2)

BOSTON CELTICS POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Category Statistics
Last 5 Games 3-2
Last 10 Games 8-2
Season ATS Record 42-36-5
Season O/U Record 42-39-2
Last 5 Games ATS 2-2-1
Last 10 Games ATS 4-4-2
Last 5 Games O/U 3-2
Last 10 Games O/U 6-4-0
Offensive Rating (Rank) 126.7 (1)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 105.6 (7)
Points Per Game (Rank) 114 (1)
Pace (Rank) 89.50 (T15 w/ Heat)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 94 (T-3)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 44.9% (1)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 44 (T-9)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins New Orleans (-6), OKC (-12), Charlotte (-8), Miami (-14.5)

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: HEAT VS. CELTICS 

Season Matchups:

Game Result Spread Total
Game 1 Boston 119, Miami 111 Miami +9 Over 217.5
Game 2 Boston 143, Miami 110 Boston -8.5 Over 225
Game 3 Boston 110, Miami 106 Miami +8 Under 225
Playoff Game 1 Boston 114, Miami 94 Boston -14.5 Under 210

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SPREAD: BOSTON CELTICS -14.5 (FANDUEL)

Where do I begin? This is a crucial matchup for the Celtics, who aim to have a 2-0 cushion before heading down to Miami for the next two matchups. While C's head coach Joe Mazzulla seems to think they will see a different version of the Heat tonight, I disagree.

First off, I highly respect the Heat, and head coach Erik Spoelstra.How many coaches can say they've taken an injury-riddled team to the playoffs? Not only that, but they made it to the NBA Finals last season after finishing as the no. 7 seed last season.

However, Miami is extremely short-handed this year, and the Celtics have the firepower to take them out by more than 14.5 points.

Furthermore, the Heat simply won't have "Jimmy Buckets" or "Playoff Jimmy" to take them to the promised land this year.

During the offseason, the Celtics acquired guard Jrue Holiday, and big man Kristaps Porzingis to help make a push for banner no. 18. In doing so, there have been few flaws in their offensive scheme, and Mazzulla is a defensive mastermind. With both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown entering the prime of their careers, it's championship or bust for the Celtics.

With arguably the best top six in the NBA, Boston has incredible shooting capability, along with spacing the floor. Because of Mazzulla's brilliancy, he trusts all of his rotations, and that includes players on the bench. As top heavy as they seem, keep an eye out for Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser, who combined for a total of 20 points on Sunday.

Over the regular season, the Celtics remained a top offensive and defensive team for a reason.

THE CELTICS MONEY LINE AT -1350 IS TOO RISKY

For the money line, the Celtics have -1350 to win outright, so I've chosen to stay away from betting on that. Given its extremely high odds, it's a high-risk, low-reward situation.

THE CELTICS COVERED THE -14.5 SPREAD IN GAME 1 VS. MIAMI

There's no question in my mind that 14.5 is a very large spread, and the Celtics are favored by that much for a second consecutive game. As someone who's covered the Celtics for quite some time, Spoelstra and the Heat always manage to put up a fight. While the Celtics shot over 44 percent from downtown in game 1, I expect them to come back down to earth.

Defeating the Heat by a 20-point spread, Miami was held to just 32.4 percent from the three-point line. While the C's sunk 22 three-pointers, the Heat delivered in the paint 44-24 against Boston.

Fortunately for the Heat, they still have bench players, including Delon Wright, who poured in 17 points in game 1. Outside of Wright, veteran Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson, and Haywood Highsmith were limited to a combined 12 points.

As we saw last year, Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin were crucial in the playoffs, however, if the Celtics can continue to limit them, and Tyler Herro, this could be a serious blowout. In game 1, Herro finished with 11 points, on 4-13 field goal shooting.

Although rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. had a respectable first game, it would be a challenging task to take over against the Boston Celtics in his first season. In a tough matchup with Porzingis, Bam Adebayo led the way with 24 points, six rebounds, and three assists.

WHY THE BOSTON CELTICS CAN COVER THE SPREAD

When we break down the statistics, the Celtics are an excellent team covering the spread this season. With a 42-36-5 record, they are 6-4 in covering the spread against Miami in their last ten matchups. Although Miami covered in two of the three regular-season matchups, the loss of Butler and Rozier will simply be too much for Miami.

Overall, the Celtics are elite, and on their journey to another championship, this is a revenge series. With a healthy roster, I don't believe they've quite reached their ceiling yet. I mean, think about it--Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis.

Next to the Nuggets, they are the most complete starting five in the NBA, who have shown they are more than just a three-point shooting team. Limiting opponents to 35.2 percent from deep, Boston has one of the best backcourt duos in White and Holiday.

With an NBA-best 38-4 record at home, they have an even more impressive record of 32-28-4 against the spread after a victory. Although I won't disrespect the Heat, the Celtics overpower them at every single position on the floor, and that includes the bench. For the second straight season, Miami struggled offensively, scoring only 110 points per game.

This year, Boston got their guy in Porzingis, who is a rim protector Boston so badly needed. After defeating Miami 143-110 back in January, this team has shown just how dominant they are. There's no way Boston will let Miami embarrass themselves at home again after last year's disastrous playoff run.

THE CELTICS ARE 23-17-2 ATS AT HOME THIS YEAR

Over the last four matchups, Boston's held the Heat to just 105 points per game, while putting up an average of 121.5 points. Unless the Celtics completely collapse, they should be able to cover the spread against a shorthanded Heat team. Putting up a league-high 42.5 three-point attempts per game, they are a dynamic force on the defensive end.

Expect the Celtics to take advantage of mismatches, and switch on everything defensively. Out of all 16 teams, the Celtics are favored to win the NBA Championship at +115 odds, while the Heat are the least favored at +100000 odds. For a reminder, Boston had six players who scored in double figures on Sunday, which included two off the bench. 23-17-2 ATS at home, I'm confident about the pick.

TOTAL: OVER 204 POINTS (-110 FanDuel)

Both the Heat and Celtics rank in the bottom category in terms of pace, which the Heat could use to their advantage. However, 204 is an extremely low number, and the opening line started at 208 points. With the over-hitting in two of the three regular-season games,  the line hasn't been set this low since May of 2023.

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Over the last 10 games, both Miami and Boston over bettors had great success. With the Heat 7-3 and Celtics 6-4 against totals, I like the over tonight, especially since the Celtics can turn it up a notch on offense.

  • Boston is 22-20 against totals at home this season, and I do expect Tyler Herro and others to shoot slightly more efficiently than the first matchup.
  • For the Celtics, they've shown a variety of ways to score outside of threes.

Although these two teams were ranked top five defensively, I simply cannot back the low-point total. With the line set at 210 in game 1, both teams cruised to 208 points.

If you want to know what's fresh, go no further than our Betting News Section.

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