How Jayson Tatum's Return From Achilles Injury Affects Boston Celtics' NBA Championship Odds

It's official: Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum will return to the hardwood tonight.

(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Just 10 months ago, Tatum ruptured his right Achilles tendon during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the New York Knicks. According to Adam Schefter, Tatum will make his season debut against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night.

After weeks of speculation, the news is true. Selected No. 3 overall by the Celtics in the 2017 NBA Draft, Tatum will rejoin his team. An NBA champion with Boston, the team will receive a major upgrade. We are talking about a six-time NBA All-Star and four-time All-NBA First Team caliber player.

There's been much debate as to whether the Celtics belong to Jaylen Brown or Tatum. The reality is, both are superstars and Brown is in NBA MVP conversations. Brown currently has the fifth-best odds on FanDuel to win the NBA MVP award.

Following Tatum's injury, Brad Stevens, Celtics president of basketball operations and GM, faced difficult financial constraints. Due to the second apron tax, Boston unloaded championship members Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and more. Once destined for a dynasty, the future of the franchise was very much in doubt.

Sitting first in the Atlantic Division and second in the East, no one predicted the Celtics would be having this much success. The question remains: How will Tatum's return impact the Celtics' success? Let's take a look at the Celtics NBA championship odds prior to Tatum's return tonight.

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How Jayson Tatum's Return Impacts Boston Celtics NBA Championship Betting Odds

• Preseason NBA Championship Odds: +6000 (BetMGM)
• Current NBA Championship Odds: +900 (BetMGM)

Ahead of the 2025-2026 campaign, the Celtics win total was set at 41.5 at BetMGM. With 20 games remaining, Joe Mazzulla and company have already compiled 41 wins. If you placed a bet on this, congratulations.

You may be wondering how the Celtics have stayed afloat. Retaining their core of Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser, this team hasn't missed a beat. Aforementioned, Brown is in MVP conversations, and is averaging 28.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and one steal in 55 games.  Named an All-Star starter, Brown is putting up career numbers.

A consistent player for the Celtics, Brown isn't the only player that deserves credit for the team's success. Derrick White is averaging a career-high 17.3 points per game, and remains an elite-two way threat. Additionally, Pritchard, who has been compared to Caitlin Clark, is having a breakout season. Boston meticulously replaced Horford and Porzingis with Neemias Queta and Luka Garza, and even traded for Nikola Vucevic at the deadline.

It's clear the chemistry is strong within this organization. Even Baylor Scheierman has entered the starting lineup, and Hauser remains one of the most elite sharpshooters in the NBA. Players such as Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez have proven themselves as valuable bench assets.

What do the Celtics really have to lose here? Assuming Tatum will operate under limited action, will a max salary player truly disrupt the rhythm?

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Celtics NBA Championship Odds Surge Ahead of Tatum's Return

The Celtics have the fourth-best odds to win the 2025-2026 NBA championship behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (+135), San Antonio Spurs (+750), and Denver Nuggets (+750). Sportsbooks, such as FanDuel, even have the Celtics priced as low as +750.

As of Feb. 19, the Celtics had +1340 odds, and it's clear Tatum's return has caused their championship betting odds to surge. If you were to bet $10 on Boston to win it all at +900 odds, the payout would total $100, and you would profit $90. I would say that's great value.

At 7-3 in their last 10 games, this is a Celtics squad that already has signature victories over the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Orlando Magic. Embarking on several win-streaks this season, this is a team that ranks No. 2 in offensive rating, averaging 114.5 points per game. Even more impressive, the Celtics have stayed true to who they are. They put up the second-most 3-pointers in the league (42.4 3PA), and shoot 36.4% from beyond the arc. Furthermore, they boast the fourth-highest rebound percentage (52.1%) in the NBA.

With the offense flowing, this is also a team that ranks No. 7 in defensive rating (111.9). Allowing the fewest points to opponents (107.1 PPG), teams are shooting just 44.1% from the field against Boston.

Can the Boston Celtics win the 2025-2026 NBA Championship?

I'm not saying I'm 100% confident in the Celtics winning the NBA championship, but it is possible. The favorite (+230 FanDuel) to win the Eastern Conference, Boston will have a tough test with the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Knicks.

Where it gets tricky is a stacked Western Conference. While it will be tough to advance past Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder—other teams remain threats. Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle of the San Antonio Spurs are in the mix, along with Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. We also can't forget Luka Dončić and LeBron James (Lakers), and Kevin Durant-led Rockets.

While all of this seems scary, the Celtics have some depth. There are some concerns if Vucevic can hold up defensively, and Anfernee Simons is long gone. Ranked No. 17 in bench production (17.3 PPG), the role players produce top 10 offensively in the NBA.

Whether Tatum ramps up to full speed or not, he's a difference maker on both sides of the ball. A true 3-level scorer with a ton of versatility and size. An eight-year NBA veteran, he's averaged 23.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.1 steals in 585 regular-season games. Leading Boston to two NBA Finals, he notably helped Boston defeat the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals.

Last season, Tatum averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.1 steals in 72 regular-season games with the Celtics. A player who can impact the box score in various ways, he will only add more value to this squad. While I don't expect his numbers to increase to what they were before, he can help Boston solidify itself as top dog in the East next to the Pistons.

Boston Celtics Prediction: Eastern Conference Winners (+250)

Ahead, the Celtics have the seventh-toughest schedule remaining, and will face the Thunder twice, along with the Spurs, Knicks, Cavaliers, Lakers, and Raptors. Whether Tatum will start for Boston is uncertain, but Jordan Walsh, Sam Hauser, or Hugo Gonzalez's minutes may be affected. Even so, isn't it better to have more depth behind Tatum?

Naturally, the Celtics get their top star back, one that's averaged 24.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists in 121 playoff games. Tatum has played on stacked teams before, and is a player who knows his role. I only see this as an added value.

• It's known the Celtics have struggled against top rivals in the East, and have a 1-3 record against the Pistons. If Tatum can get back to full speed by the playoffs, I can see them winning the East over the Pistons. If anyone knows playoff basketball, it's Boston. While the road is tough, they've accomplished so much without Tatum. A high-volume, high-scoring player, watch out for the Celtics. While it's worth a sprinkle at +900 to win it all, the Celtics have been unable to beat the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Spurs, and Thunder this season.