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New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers: betting odds and predictions for May 12

Publish Date: 05/12/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The New York Knicks took a step back in their first gam since OG Anunoby's injury, falling by a narrow margin to the Pacers in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal. Now, they'll look to build on the positives to move out to a vital 3-1 series lead.

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

New York has been able to command the glass in this series and shoot the ball with ease, but given it was at its near-best on Friday and couldn't come away with the win, what are we to make of Sunday's meeting?

Let's get into the best way to bet on the Pacers vs. Knicks in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

NEW YORK KNICKS VS. INDIANA PACERS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 12

MONEY LINE

  • NEW YORK KNICKS: +188
  • INDIANA PACERS: -225

SPREAD

  • NEW YORK KNICKS +5.5 (-110)
  • INDIANA PACERS -5.5 (-110)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER 217.5 (-110)
  • UNDER 217.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR NEW YORK KNICKS VS. INDIANA PACERS

  • The best odds on the New York Knicks are over at BetMGM, where you'll find Knicks +5.5 (-110).
  • The best odds on Indiana are at Caesars, who is offering Pacers -5.5 (-105).
  • The total is the same across the board, with the best odds on the Over at Caesars, hanging Over 217 (-110). You'll find the best odds on the Under at DraftKings, offering Under 217.5 (-110).

NEW YORK KNICKS VS. INDIANA PACERS INJURY REPORT

NEW YORK KNICKS INJURY REPORT

  • OG ANUNOBY - OUT - HAMSTRING
  • MITCHELL ROBINSON - OUT - ANKLE
  • JULIUS RANDLE - OUT - SHOULDER
  • BOJAN BOGDANOVIC - OUT - FOOT

INDIANA PACERS INJURY REPORT

  • TYRESE HALIBURTON - QUESTIONABLE - BACK, ANKLE
  • BENNEDICT MATHURIN - OUT - SHOULDER

WHY NEW YORK KNICKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Knicks continued to do what they best on offense, which is shooting the 3, knocking down a ridiculous 51.9% of their looks in Game 3. Given their excellence from outside on the road this season, and in Indiana particularly where they shot almost 46% from outside the only time they played there, I'd expect shots to continue falling.

That's really the feather in the Knicks' cap here, and something we should continue seeing. Indiana hasn't had a great deal of success at defending the arc this year, and these three games have proven the opening round against a depleted Bucks side to be a fluke in that regard. The scoring at the rim fell off by a bit in Game 3, but the Knicks did continue to score the ball and played better defense on Friday than they have all series.

That's really the case for New York, who is missing a defensive stalwart in Anunoby. Though its offense was certainly missing him, the fact that the last game -- where it entered as a 7.5-point underdog -- came down to a fluke 3 at the end of regulation should be encouraging. The defense took a step forward despite the loss of Anunoby, and now it appears Jalen Brunson is back to full health given his absence from the injury report.

WHY INDIANA PACERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Pacers struggled mightily to defend at the rim through two games of this series in what was a very stunning turn, and they have to be encouraged by a 57.1% performance on defense in Game 3 according to Cleaning the Glass. They were still more or less average from outside, and shot even worse than the Knicks at the rim, but the fact of the matter is this team -- driven by offense all year -- turned in its best game of the series and the third-best of their run in the NBA playoffs.

Indiana was also able to force New York into a 14% turnover rate while limiting its own turnover rate to 10.9%, which was enough to ultimately flip the script in that Game 3. Turnovers haven't really been an issue for the Pacers, but they continue to force them at a high rate which has made a slight uptick in turnovers since the start of this series significantly less relevant.

The Pacers will cover this spread by relying on their interior defenders, who showed up in a big way on Friday. The Knicks should lack a little bite inside without Anunoby, and even if they continue to shoot well, it's encouraging to see the Pacers survive a near-52% shooting night to win on their home floor. You'd expect the Knicks to come down a touch in that regard which would, in turn, widen the margin.

FINAL KNICKS-PACERS PICK & PREDICTION

The line here has changed rather drastically from Game 3 to Game 4 with oddsmakers beginning to believe the delta between the Knicks and Pacers isn't quite that large, even without Anunoby. Indiana was a whopping 7.5-point favorite on Friday, but is laying just 5.5 points on Sunday.

I'm inclined to believe the Knicks -- the better team in this series -- should continue to put the pressure on the Pacers. They may not shoot 52% from 3 again, but even with slight regression we should expect around 40% if the season-long trends with the Knicks on the road, and the Pacers against the 3, are to be believed.

Down low, too, while the Knicks scored at a significantly lower rate at the rim in Game 3 they still managed to shoot better than Indiana as their frontcourt continues to shine in this series. New York has won the rebounding battle by a comfortable margin in this series, and while it essentially split all available boards with Indiana in Game 3 should continue to take away one of the Pacers' biggest edges.

The Knicks put forth an incredibly strong defensive performance in Game 3 without Anunoby, and while they fell off a hair on offense due to turnovers and some shots missing from close range, we should see a bit of positive regression to the mean to keep this one just as close as Game 3.

FINAL KNICKS-PACERS PICK & PREDICTION: KNICKS +5.5 (-110)

To keep yourself updated on the newest happenings, be sure to check out our Betting News Section. We've organized all the updates so you can find all you need, in one convenient location.

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