
We recently talked about the most impactful trade deadline moves, the ones that helped turn a team’s fortunes around, nearly immediately. The recent blockbuster trade between the Lakers, Mavericks and Jazz definitely won’t be as impactful immediately, but it will have long-term ramifications that will be felt for the next 10 years and beyond.
Is it the biggest trade ever? Most online fans have recency bias, but there has been some monster trades over the years involving some of the biggest names in the sport (i.e. Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) so that’s a discussion for another day. What we want to discuss today is what Saturday evening's Midnight surprise means for the L.A. Lakers, Dallas and the NBA in general.
It definitely will go down as one of the shocking NBA trades of all-time, deadline or not, but a deeper look reveals perhaps it’s not as shocking as the trade might seem on the surface.
To recap (or in case you live under a rock): The Lakers dealt 31-year old perennial all-star Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and its 2029 first round NBA Draft pick to Dallas for 25-year old NBA superstar Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris. The Utah Jazz acquire Jalen Hood-Schifino and a 2025 second round NBA Draft pick (via the L.A. Clippers from the Lakers), while Utah acquired a 2025 second round NBA Draft pick from Dallas.
Fans forget the NBA’s owners are tied together; they don’t work in a vacuum. The success (or failures) of one franchise impacts the others. In a team sport there is always going to be more popular or powerful teams, whether it be because of location (i.e. New York) or fan base loyalty (i.e. Pittsburgh Steelers).
NBA owners, all of whom are extremely wealthy, know the strength of weaknesses of their respective franchise and the leverage it has. It’s a talent-driven league on the court and a relationship-driven league off it. The two General Managers who pulled off the trade, the Laker’s Rob Pelinka and the Mavericks’ Nico Harrison, are long-time friends. This trade wouldn’t have worked between people who don’t trust one another or worked together to make it work.
There are few facts that eventually influenced this trade that make it less of a shock. Harrison was not the Dallas GM when the Hawks drafted Luka for the Mavericks. Don Nelson was. It’s no secret former majority owner Mark Cuban was enamored with Luka Doncic as the cornerstone of the franchise.
When Cuban sold a majority stake of the franchise to the Adelson family, that signified a significant shift in the relationship between star player and ownership, even if said star player didn’t realize or worry about it at the time. Cuban, as some owners are, was invested in the game, while others own teams to enhance other business developments, or to become bigger players in the financial sector.
Luka no longer had the cover, so to speak, with the franchise as he once did with Cuban in charge. With Cuban no longer involved in the basketball decisions, the action of the Mav’s leadership and the actions of its star led to the stunning Saturday night special. It’s hard to envision Cuban trading away Luka, even if the Mavs got a better package in return than they got from the Lakers.
The Lakers’ LeBron James will now be teamed up with a young superstar for the rest of the season. One of the enduring legacies of LeBron James’ 20-plus year run in the league is that the players’ now yield much more power, and have more leverage, than they did before he came into the league in the fall of 2003. Younger players follow James’ lead just as the players before followed the lead of the NBA’s superstars in those days such as Michael Jordan and Dr. J.
They won’t say it publicly, but ownership and front office executives know the current state of the game is not healthy, long term. The public applauded players gaining more leverage in their career moves, but now don’t like the perceived freedoms it afforded players. The fallout is the public doesn’t feel players go hard during the regular season, day-in and day-out, as they once did.
How do we know that? Just look at the league’s television ratings. It’s not a mystery fans are not watching the games as much as when James was younger or before he came into the league. It might not be an immediate problem today, but it’s something the league desperately wants to right the ship on. Ownership groups don’t want to feel like star players hold the franchise hostage any longer. It’s not good for business, nor good for public perception.
The trade cost Doncic 100 millions dollars, at minimum. Had he stayed in Dallas, he was eligible for a five-year, $345 million supermax deal. Luka is not eligible for that with the Lakers. The Mavericks decided it was worth the risk moving on from Luka now and he’ll have to decide how long he wants to re-sign for in Los Angeles or if he wants to re-sign with the team at all.
James is the biggest name in basketball since Michael Jordan. Most are in agreement he is the most powerful player ever in terms of his influence on the league and the franchises he played for, especially since his Airness only played for the Chicago Bulls. Luka is one of only two or three players in basketball (i.e. Nikola Jokic) with a big enough name to signify that LeBron’s stature with the franchise has changed and his future with it is limited.
If Anthony Davis was to remain a Laker, it would eventually be his team, but this move signifies that the team’s fortunes no longer rest with James, who he led to the NBA bubble title in 2020. Fans will understand that with a player of Luka’s stature and the Lakers’ brass has to be ecstatic to get a 25-year old five-time All-NBA player who was our odds-on favorite in the preseason to win NBA MVP on its roster.
The Lakers knew they were unlikely to win a NBA title with the roster it had before the trade, and with Doncic on board, they’ll likely have to make another move before Thursday’s deadline to be taken seriously as Western Conference contenders.
In the bigger picture, however, the future looks bright, as it usually does for the Lakers, after they hit rough stretches. After all, they have as much leverage as any team in the league regardless of who is making the basketball decisions.
Take note of point No. 1 (this is business) and No. 3 (player leverage). Harrison and the front office of the Mavs would look foolish if their relationship with their star player deteriorated or he walked in free agency later (to a preferred destination such as Miami) and got nothing in return.
The league is trying to increase TV ratings and having a situation involving the one with the Miami Heat star is not a good look. NBA brass want to avoid those types of situations going forward, where they suspend star players because of a rift with management. Butler has been a warrior on the court and a clutch performer but now he’s disgruntled and wants to be traded to Phoenix.
Luka in that same type of situation would be huge news. The Mavericks are even offering refunds to season ticket holders upset about the current Luka-AD trade. On the surface, Luka’s relationship with Dallas appeared fine, but behind the scenes if there was any indication it wasn’t going to get better as time went by, they made the move to avoid losing the leverage Miami has now lost with Butler.
The owners don’t want to do that, and in return the players want to keep their guaranteed contracts, so if one understands that they’ll have a better understanding of why the trade perhaps is not as shocking as it appears to be.
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