It’s the back half of March and college basketball’s top teams are getting ready for The Big Dance.
While it’s hard to know how March Madness will shake out, every one and two seed has a realistic shot at the title.
(Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images)
Here’s how they all shake out.
The Auburn Tigers
Auburn enters the tournament as a one seed for good reason. The high-flying team is about as well-rounded as it gets. They’re fast, quick, strong, and tenacious on both sides of the ball.
On top of that, they’ve thrived this year in an absolutely brutal schedule.
They have 16 quad 1 victories this season, three more than any other team
Add in the high level play of Johni Broome (18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds per game) and Tahaad Pettiford (11.6 points per game) and the Tigers have very few flaws on their roster.
While they did lose their two final regular-season games, that’s a small blip on the radar for what is easily the most battle tested team in the tournament.
Expect them to make a deep run, and don’t be surprised to see them win it all.
Duke Blue Devils
Duke’s 31-3 record and unbelievable stats (not to mention the highest KenPom net rating this century) tell the story of a team who has been unbelievably dominant this season.
They have several high-quality wins, including taking down Auburn, and are led by future NBA lottery pick Cooper Flagg.
The only potential issue for the Blue Devils is their youth
Inexperience isn’t a death sentence, but it can become a problem if things get rocky. Flagg also suffered an ankle injury in the ACC tournament.
He returned, but that’s something to monitor going forward
Despite those concerns, it’s hard to see Duke going out early. They are one of the best picks for the Final Four, and could be unstoppable with the right momentum.
Houston Cougars
With all the talk about Duke and Auburn, many have forgotten that head coach Kelvin Sampson is once again leading Houston on a very, very good run.
Ending the season 30-4, the athletic team from Texas has one of the best transition offenses in college basketball.
They run the floor well, have four players who shoot over 40 percent from three, and are led by the scoring of L.J Cryer (15.2 points per game).
Where the Cougars excel compared to the other one seeds is their defensive tenacity
They are ranked second in the nation, and are able to create problems for just about any opposing team.
They also have 14 quad one wins this season, which gives them an edge when the lights get bright.
Florida Gators
The dark horse of the one seeds, the Florida Gators have proven they can hold their own.
The team has beaten some of the best teams in the nation, netting wins over Auburn, Alabama, and Tennessee, as well winning all of their quad 2-4 games.
Led by the impressive Walter Clayton Jr. (17.3 points, 4.4 assists, 1.3 steals per game), the team has the third best offense in adjusted efficiency for the entire tournament.
Florida may not be as dominant as the other three top seeds, but they know how to win games.
That may very well be all they need to run through what is a relatively easy conference.
Alabama Crimson Tide
If there’s one two seed to love in this year’s tournament, it’s the Crimson Tide. Alabama, fresh off of a Final Four run last year, has only gotten better.
They won 11 quad one games this season and are fourth in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings
They can be a bit shaky when it comes to defense, but they run the floor well and are led by a well-seasoned rotation that can score points in droves.
Their 6-11 forward Grant Nelson (11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds per game) anchors the paint, while fifth year senior Mark Sears (18.7 points per game) takes care of the outside.
They are also a great three shooting team
That, mixed with their excellent perimeter defense, makes them a great two seed who’s more than capable of causing Duke’s dominance to end before reaching San Antonio.
St. John’s Red Storm
If Alabama is the best two seed in the bracket, St. John’s is certainly a close second.
They may not have the same reputation as some other top teams, but they do have Rick Pitino, as well as an unorthodox style of play.
Unlike most of the top teams, the Red Storm is rather weak from the three point line (29.9 percent)
They make up for that with incredible defense. They are ranked third in the country, thanks to the powerful play of RJ Luis Jr., and transfers Kadary Richmond and Zuby Ejiofor.
The weak shooting may be cause for concern, but Pitino’s two trips to the Final Four in 2012 and 2013 were both on the back of teams with great defense and poor shooting.
Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself here.
Michigan State Spartans
Rick Pinito is not the only great coach in the tournament who can get the most out of his roster. Tom Izzo can too.
The long-time leader has Michigan State rolling this season, boasting a squad that’s fifth in defensive efficiency, and second in opponent three point percentage.
Only two players (Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson) average double figures, but their ten-man rotation and deep bench allow them to outlast plenty of other teams.
They aren’t great from deep (30.2 percent), but excel in creating second chance points
If the Spartans exit early, it will be because such opportunities don’t come their way down the stretch. Still, it’s hard to bet against Izzo leading a strong, well-rounded squad.
Tennessee Volunteers
The Tennessee Volunteers are the least likely of the two seeds to make it all the way to the Final Four, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get hot.
The Volunteers once again enter March Madness with a strong lockdown defense (third in efficiency) that they use to create turnovers and easy fast breaks.
They are holding opponents to the lowest three point percentage in the nation and are number one in opponent field goal shooting
They do struggle on offensive, which may be an issue as the tournament goes on, but Rick Barnes is a seasoned coach who can rally his team if things go south.
If looking for March Madness tournament schedules, matchup breakdowns, and expert picks, head to our
March Madness section.
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